258
FXUS61 KRLX 142325
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Elected to cancel the Flood Watch as the threat for any
significant flooding has diminished. If anything were to occur
it would be very isolated in nature. Will continue to monitor
for the potential of another watch down the road as models come
together on where convection will likely occur mid to late
Saturday afternoon and for Sunday.

Updated POPs to reflect observations and trends going forward.

Uncertainty remains for Saturday, but heavy rainfall and rounds
of showers/storms are expected today and Sunday. Very hot and
humid on Sunday featuring dangerous heat index values for some.
~18z aviation discussion update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of rain will continue through early next week,
leading to continued chances of flash flooding each day. A break
in the rainfall will arrive by Tuesday.

2) Hot temperatures and oppressive humidity will lead to
dangerous heat index values on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our active pattern remains firmly in place through the weekend with
a stationary front sitting overhead. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. A few storms could
be strong to severe this weekend, especially Saturday afternoon.
Main hazards with strong to severe storms will be damaging winds,
but a tornado threat does exist Saturday afternoon across southeast
Ohio with a meso low creating backed winds and 20-40 knots of 0-6km
wind shear.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will ultimately be our main
concern this weekend with precipitable water remaining high between
1.75" and 2.50". Efficient rainfall rates upwards of 2-4"/hr or more
will be common with any showers and thunderstorms. Soils are already
waterlogged so flash flooding is likely where repeated rounds
of heavy rainfall occur. Latest HRRR and NAM3k show stripes of 2
inches or more of rainfall being picked up somewhere across the
southern coalfields and northeastern Kentucky through this
evening. CAMs, namely the FV3, do show a few hefty rounds of
showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-64 corridor
this afternoon and tonight.

A flash flood watch painted across the entire forecast area goes
until tonight at 11 PM. Not inclined to extend this watch into
Saturday as all models shove the activity out of here by
10PM-11PM. Plus, models do not agree on solutions for tomorrow.
The NAM3k and HRRR keep the area less active with less
problematic QPF values across the area; the GFS however shows
the opposite. Nonetheless, WPC has our area outlooked with
slight risks (level 2/4) across our forecast area through
Sunday. Additional flood watches may be on the horizon going
into Sunday, especially with CAMs showing a hefty complex
forming across Ohio that will then move across our northern
forecast area late Saturday into early Sunday.

The pattern looks to break some Tuesday and part of Wednesday as
surface high pressure builds into the area. Zonal flow aloft may
allow for some sneaky shortwave disturbances to move through
allowing for chances for some diurnal showers/storms across the
mountains. The pattern then looks to turn active once again
Wednesday night/Thursday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures hot on Sunday with the lowlands seeing upper 80s
and low 90s. The mountains will remain in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Dew points will be oppressive with the saturated air mass
with 70s being forecasted each afternoon across the area. This
will in turn lead to dangerous heat index values in the lower
100s Sunday afternoon across portions of the lowlands.
Currently, these values remain below advisory criteria though so
no headlines are expected at this time. If dew points and
temperatures rise with future updates, then some locations may
be in advisory territory.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect mainly mid to high clouds clearing out a bit which will
allow for dense valley fog to form especially given the
antecedent wet soil conditions from earlier convection. Have
coded up some IFR fog at a few sites and dense LIFR or worse in
fog and stratus at the northern sites. At the other sites low
stratus may dominate and promote LIFR or worse conditions. There
is a frontal boundary across the area so this may deter some
fog/stratus at the southern sites, but there is not enough
confidence to take mention out of the TAFs at this time. Surface
flow should decouple overnight and pick back up tomorrow
afternoon out of the southwest.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and fog tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
early next week. Brief IFR or lower conditions will be possible
with shower/thunderstorms containing heavy downpours. Where
overnight clearing occurs over wet ground, patchy valley fog and
stratus may bring early morning MVFR or IFR restrictions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ/LTC
AVIATION...JZ