140
FXUS61 KRLX 061245
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
845 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather prevails into tonight courtesy of high
pressure. A cold front brings beneficial rain showers early
Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry and cooler to round out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Monday...

Updated forecast to add clouds and light showers evident in
satellite and radar imagery. This is very light precipitation
most of it not reaching the ground. Expect this light activity
to dissipated by early afternoon. Rest of forecast remains on
track.

As of 630 AM Monday...

The 15 to 20 kts of nocturnal flow just above the deck was
enough to keep valley fog at bay so far this morning, even as
temperatures dipped a bit lower than forecast.

As of 200 AM Monday...Corrected typo

A large high pressure system that has been in control since last
week drifts away from the area and off the east coast today and
tonight. It will maintain control enough for another dry day
today with a warm afternoon, although we will see a bit of an
increase in patchy high and mid cloud from the south, as a weak
but moisture-laden mid-level short wave trough along the Gulf
coast early this morning approaches.

As a mid/upper-level ridge also drifts off the east coast, a
mid-upper level short wave trough approaches from the west. As
the belt of mid/upper level southwest flow ahead of the short
wave eases southward, it will pick up the southern stream short
wave and pull it northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley
tonight. With a potent increase in moisture associated with this
system, this is likely to bring rain showers into the middle
Ohio Valley overnight, and possibly across the lowlands of WV
by dawn Tuesday.

With only patchy mid and high cloud, temperatures may top out
just a bit higher today, compared with the weekend. A more
robust increase in cloud tonight will result in a milder night.
15 to 20 kts of nocturnal flow just above the deck will keep
valley fog limited this morning, and that, along with the
increase in cloud tonight, will limit it even further overnight
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...Corrected typo

The weather pattern will become more active during the short
term, as a weak but moisture laden mid-level southern stream short
wave originating from the Gulf, moves east-northeast across the
area Tuesday morning, ahead of a mid/upper-level trough that digs
into the Great Lakes and pushes a surface cold front toward the
area from the west. This will lead to a marked increase in the
potential for rainfall, some of which could be heavy.

The 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF, along with the higher-
resolution NAM, all depict the sharpening trough axis moving
into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Ahead of this trough, a plume
of deeper moisture associated with the southern stream short
wave, with precipitable water values (PWATs) climbing to 1.5-1.9
inches, a range that straddles the climatological 95th
percentile for the middle Ohio Valley for early October, will
surge east-northeastward across the area. This moisture
advection, coupled with increasing large-scale ascent from the
approaching trough and associated right-entrance region of the
upper-level jetstream, will create a favorable environment for
widespread precipitation, some heavy.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted a slight
risk for excessive rainfall across portions of the middle Ohio
Valley and southern Coal Fields, with a marginal risk elsewhere
for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The main window for heavy
rainfall appears to be from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Model soundings indicate a saturated, and at times
slightly unstable, atmosphere. Even while saturation extends
well into the crystal growth zone, wet bulb freezing levels up
around 13 kft will support somewhat efficient rainfall
production. The main concern will be the potential for training
cells and embedded heavier downpours, which could lead to
localized flash flooding, particularly in urban and poor
drainage areas. The latest ensemble guidance is showing a 60-90%
probability of 24-hour rainfall totals exceeding an inch across
much of the region, with a 20-60% probability of amounts
exceeding two inches across portions of the middle Ohio River
and Kanawha River valleys.

Most models output a roughly west-east oriented band of rainfall
amounts up around 2 inches, ranging across or either side
(north or south) of the Kanawha Valley. Flash flooding concerns
would be greatest it the band sets up over Kanawha Valley,
where urban and poor drainage areas are common. The forecast
axis of heavier precipitation does encompass the Kanawha
Valley, as does the WPC slight risk area.

Of equal importance, though, much of the rainfall will actually
be beneficial, helping to squash drought conditions festering
in and near the Central Appalachians.

While widespread organized severe weather is not anticipated,
the approaching cold front and moist, and at times slightly unstable
airmass will support the development of embedded thunderstorms
within the more widespread showers. With no severe weather risk
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, the primary threat
with any thunderstorms will be heavy downpours, which will
exacerbate the excessive rainfall threat. Some gusty winds are
also possible with the strongest cells. The afternoon and early
evening hours on Tuesday will be the most likely time for
thunderstorm activity to peak as diurnal heating adds somewhat
to the instability.

By Wednesday, the cold front will have pushed southeast of the
Appalachians, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass.
Showers will linger across the central Appalachians early in the
day before tapering off. Expect breezy conditions with clearing
from northwest to southeast.

Wednesday will be noticeably cooler, generally in the 60s, but
even Tuesday will be cooler then recent days, just on account
of the clouds and rain. A mild Monday night ahead of the cold
front will be followed by a cooler Tuesday night, especially
northwest, as the cold front pushes southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

The long-term period will be characterized by the shift to the
more autumnal weather pattern that begins in the short-term. A
large area of high pressure will build in behind the departing
cold front, bringing an extended period of dry and cool weather.

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are in good agreement on the
establishment of a broad upper-level trough over the eastern
United States for the latter half of the week. This will keep a
cool, dry airmass entrenched over the middle Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians.

Expect abundant sunshine both Thursday and Friday. High
temperatures will range from the mid-60s to lower 70s across
the lowlands, to the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher
terrain. Overnights will be chilly. The lowest temperatures
will be found in the sheltered valleys within and near the
mountains, where temperatures could drop into the mid-30s,
leading to a risk of frost Thursday and Friday mornings. Lowland
areas will generally see lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s, with
spotty valley frost away from rivers north.

The high-pressure system will gradually shift northeast of the
area next weekend, allowing for a light return flow of slightly
milder air to develop. This will bring a slight moderating
trend in temperatures. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will likely
reach the upper 60s to mid-70s across the lowlands, with
primarily low to mid-60s in the higher terrain. Lows this
weekend will be in the the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s in
the northern mountains.

While models indicate a mid/upper level low dropping through
the central Appalachians to the mid Atlantic/southeast coast and
generating coastal surface cyclogenesis, the long-range
ensembles show very low probabilities of any measurable
rainfall, and no significant precipitation is expected through
the weekend for the forecast area at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Southwest nocturnal flow of 15 to 20kts just above the deck was
enough to preclude valley fog so far early this morning. With no
of valley fog formation in the observations or GOES-R nighttime
microphysics imagery, starting the EKN 12Z TAF VFR.

The large high that has provided VFR conditions since last week
will continue to do so today, once any last minute morning fog
is gone. However, that high will drift away from the area and
off the east coast today and tonight, and rain showers are
likely to enter the middle Ohio Valley from the west overnight
tonight. Ceilings will develop around 6 kft toward dawn Tuesday
across the middle Ohio Valley and lowlands of WV, and rain
showers may reach the Ohio River by 12Z Tuesday.

Flow aloft will become light south today, and then increase a
bit from the southwest again tonight. Surface flow will be calm
to light south to southeast. With similar low level flow
tonight as this morning, and clouds with the approaching
system, IFR fog is not likely tonight, but did code MVFR mist
09-12Z at EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Rain may impact HTS/PKB with MVFR visibility
by 12Z Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
EDT 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR is possible in heavier showers and perhaps thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM