081
FXUS61 KRLX 181710
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No changes to previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return to the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, and again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another system will approach the area from the west late Wednesday,
creating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated, however,
due to the somewhat light flow/anticipated slow movement of storms,
on top of already saturated ground, isolated flash flooding will
continue to be a possibility, although better opportunity for
flooding looks to lie south and east of the CWA.

High pressure builds in from the north to dry us out for much of
Friday. There will continue to be shower/storm chances over the
weekend however as waves pass by the area in the base of a trough
over the east coast, with a more significant wave/low dropping south
out of the Great Lakes towards the end of the week, with a deeper
trough taking hold across the area.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions with light surface winds through 06Z, when widespread
LIFR/VLIFR fog is expected to develop and linger through 12-13Z.
After 13Z, VFR with light surface winds during the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog overnight may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday and
in post rain fog/stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL