768
FXUS61 KRLX 182324
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No changes to previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return to the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, and again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another system will approach the area from the west late Wednesday,
creating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated, however,
due to the somewhat light flow/anticipated slow movement of storms,
on top of already saturated ground, isolated flash flooding will
continue to be a possibility, although better opportunity for
flooding looks to lie south and east of the CWA.

High pressure builds in from the north to dry us out for much of
Friday. There will continue to be shower/storm chances over the
weekend however as waves pass by the area in the base of a trough
over the east coast, with a more significant wave/low dropping south
out of the Great Lakes towards the end of the week, with a deeper
trough taking hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate outside dense valley fog overnight
and into the morning. VLIFR fog is expected to develop and
linger through 13Z. Have coded up 1/2SM or worse in VIS and BKN
to OVC001 at all sites into the mid morning. Thereafter, the
clouds will scatter out and VFR will once again prevail through
the afternoon. Light west-southwest flow will be expected
through the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog overnight may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday and
in post rain fog/stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...JZ