181
FXUS61 KRLX 140542
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 06Z aviation discussion.

As of 833 PM Sunday...

A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to weaken with loss
of daytime heating as they shift southeast ahead of a cold
front this evening. These storms should generally be progressive
enough to limit renewed high water issues even with crossing
some rather sensitive soils due to recent rainfall.

As of 243 PM Sunday...

No changes were made to this evening`s severe weather risk
within the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front arriving tonight will bring a brief period of
showers and storms.

2) A stretch of dry weather then proceeds into the new work
week alongside the return of heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar remains generally quiet over the forecast area this
afternoon, with a few isolated showers popping up within passing
cumulus fields. At the time of writing, a cold front was
analyzed to be draped through the Great Lakes and down into Ohio
and Indiana. Hi-res models paint a cluster of storms
initializing over the Ohio Valley within the next hour of this
discussion issuance, then developing into a line oriented from
northeast to southwest that will propagate into New England and
the Mid-Atlantic through the course of this evening.

The southern tail of this line clips our southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia zones near dusk, losing aid from daytime
heating and yielding a weakening trend as the line progresses
eastward. Main changes made to the severe weather outlook this
afternoon took place outside of our forecast area, with an
upgrade to a slight risk for the northern WV panhandle into
Pennsylvania and New York. While the strongest storms are slated
to occur north of the area, enough shear will be present that if
storms maintain their composure as they arrive into southeastern
Ohio, isolated damaging wind gusts and hail could be observed.
Precipitation tracks into the mountains late tonight into early
Monday morning with the cold front, tapering off during the
pre-dawn hours once the boundary completes its passage through
the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of the frontal passage, a building ridge is slated
to amplify over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys beginning on
Monday through at least midweek. Hot and humid conditions
developing within this region may bolster a few diurnally driven
showers and storms during peak heating hours, but otherwise
looking like a relatively dry forecast for the upcoming work
week. The aforementioned heat that builds within this upper
level regime advertises the return of heat indices inching
closer to the triple digit mark by midweek. This will likely
be more the case for urbanized areas across the Kanawha Valley,
but the majority of the lowlands will reach mid to upper 90s
heat index values for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

The ridge breaks down over the Central Appalachians by the end
of the week into next weekend, opening the door for waves of
shortwaves to journey through the Ohio Valley. Daily
opportunities for showers and storms resume as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is currently crossing through the area, bringing
with it a few lingering showers across the central/northern
mountains over the next few hours, none of which are progged to
affect any terminals. Post-frontal upslope stratocu will
continue to fill in overnight southeast of the Ohio River,
bringing the potential for MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIG restrictions at
BKW/CKB/CRW/EKN overnight into Monday morning, lowest being
across the higher terrain. CIGs should steadily lift / scatter
into a VFR FEW 020-030 Cu field by late Monday morning, with VFR
then persisting area-wide through the remainder of the TAF
period (until 06Z Tuesday) amid dry conditions.

Calm to light NW/N flow is expected for the remainder of the
overnight, with light N/NE flow during the day on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through Monday morning, then high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Stratocu restrictions at BKW/CKB/CRW/EKN
could vary from the forecast this morning. BKW/EKN could linger
with MVFR CIGs into early Monday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 09/14/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog each
morning throughout the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05/JP
AVIATION...GW