767
FXUS61 KRNK 180551
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1251 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front shifts north from the southern Appalachians and
southeast U.S. into our area this evening. Low pressure moves
from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the mid-Atlantic through
tonight. This will bring most of the area a chance for rain
later today into tonight. The front shifts south late Wednesday,
then lifts north across Virginia again by Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Low RH may bring enhanced fire danger to the NC Piedmont this
afternoon, though winds will be lighter.

2) Rain arrives later this afternoon into tonight with best
chance and amounts in WV.

High pressure shifts east today while a warm front tracks from
the southern Appalachians into the mid-Atlantic by tonight. Low
pressure and deeper moisture convergence will set the stage
over the central Appalachians later this afternoon/evening with
rain chances increasing. At this time, models track the better
rain across WV into the Shenandoah Valley through this evening,
then dips the front southward later Tuesday night with rain
possibly making it as far south as the NC/VA piedmont but
amounts that way look light. Even in the mountains amounts will
be under an inch. Some minor hint of instability elevated along
the warm front this evening, but confidence is low on
thunderstorms.

Milder today though increasing clouds will put a cap on it
rising higher, with upper 50s to lower 60s along/south of U.S.
460 from Bluefield to Lynchburg south, and upper 40s to lower
50s in the Alleghanys into the Greenbrier Valley.

With clouds/rain lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s, maybe
some upper 30s across the Alleghanys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain returns late Thursday night and into Friday.

2. Temperatures trend to above normal through the period.

An upper level wave will be moving east of the area by Wednesday
morning, with ridging building over the southern US and expanding
into the Mid Atlantic region. The surface low pressure system
associated with the upper low will be lingering behind the upper
level system, with the warm front having lifted north through the
area bringing rain overnight Tuesday, then returning south as a cold
front by Wednesday morning, as surface high pressure strengthens
over the northern Mid Atlantic and northeastern US. This will bring
an end to precipitation across the area by Wednesday morning. Some
influence from the front will still be felt as it slowly drops into
the Carolinas, with some moisture pooling behind it via
east/northeasterly flow, and thus could see showers lingering in the
mountains into the afternoon hours.

Another surface low pressure system develops in the lee of the
Rockies during this midweek time frame, as another upper level low
forms over the southwest US. As the surface warm front lifts north
into the Ohio Valley Thursday, expect rain to develop over the
mountains late Thursday, and then expand in coverage to the Piedmont
through Friday. There is some chance for thunder for the area,
mainly west of the Blue Ridge, closer to the center of the low, with
MUCAPE forecast to be around 500 J/kg and strong deep layer shear,
and some increased forcing via the warm front in the vicinity.
However, the upper low does look to gradually weaken as it
progresses east, and the associated vorticity becomes more strung
out, so confidence in thunder is low at this time.

Total rainfall amounts for Thursday through Friday will be highest
in the west, nearly three quarters of an inch in parts of SE WV,
like western Greenbrier County, then decreasing sharply to the east,
Less than a tenth of an inch is anticipated in the Piedmont.

Temperatures will be well warmer than normal through this forecast
period, in the 60s and 70s during the afternoons, and into the 40s
and 50s for the overnight lows. Towards the end of the week, highs
may be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast given cloud
cover and rain in the area. That being said, with the warm and moist
airmass under the building ridge, will still see unseasonably warm
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances persist each day, mainly west of the Blue Ridge.

2. Warmer than normal temperatures continue through the weekend, but
a couple degrees cooler by the start of the work week.

The ridge over the southeastern US flattens during the weekend, as
the upper low tracks around it. The surface frontal system becomes
zonally oriented and looks to stall in the vicinity, before being
finally pushed out by another approaching from the north by Sunday.
The upper low diving south from Canada does not look to make it far
enough south into the area to bring a significant drop in
temperatures, but highs will be a few degrees cooler on sunday than
Saturday, though still above normal. The initial front, even though
it stalls, will be gradually weakening, and so while the area will
still see rain chances continuing into Saturday, most of the rain
will be light, occasionally moderate, with the greatest chances
along and north of the VA/NC state line, and across the
mountains. Dry weather returns for Sunday and Monday, with the
brief high pressure building in.

Above normal temperatures continue over the weekend and through the
beginning of the week. Sunday and Monday will be a few degrees
cooler, but still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR is likely for much of this period. A frontal boundary may
bring some MVFR cigs toward LWB/BLF late with light rain. Rain
may also reach BCB/ROA at this time. Cloud cover will increase
into Tuesday afternoon with ceilings in the 5-12kft range,
though DAN may stay scattered most of the taf period.

Cannot rule out some low level wind shear toward the end of the
taf period in WV, but too far out to include at this point.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain chances Tuesday night will likely bring sub-VFR conditions to
most terminals. Wednesday into early Thursday will likely keep
sub- VFR in the mountains but clearing in the east. Another
storm system brings another chance of rain Friday into Saturday
especially in the mountains, with sub-VFR likely mainly west of
the Blue Ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1218 AM EST Tuesday...

Not as much wind today, but RH values in the 20-25% range and
warmer temperatures will keep some semblance of fire danger
across the NC foothills/piedmont.

RH will also be in the 20-30 percent range in Virginia but at
the moment, winds are expected to be lighter.

Wetting rains a good bet across the mountains later this
afternoon and tonight and maybe as far east as Lynchburg.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...CG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP