Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
684 FXUS61 KRNK 292325 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 725 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend. 1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into early next week with increasing chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend. A broad sub-tropical ridge now over the Gulf coast states will move east and build north into the interior Mid-Atlantic the next couple of days. Our recent period of cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds/WAA tomorrow through Friday. This will mean an increase in temperatures, with some locations reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s in the Piedmont and around larger urban areas like Roanoke tomorrow through Friday. It looks like a brief CAD event develops for the weekend. Expect Increasing clouds and rain chances to suppress temperatures on Saturday, with frontal passages ushering in even cooler weather for Sunday into Monday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. The wedge looks to break down on Tuesday with sunshine returning...however cooler temperatures remain. KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. Cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds and slowly increasing moisture through Friday. By then, the sub-tropical ridge will be suppressed as a mean trough axis approaches from the west. Most of the cyclonic energy will stay to our north, but it will help drive a surface low and frontal system into the area for the weekend. Several ensemble members hold precip off until Friday evening, as it will take some time for the atmosphere to regain moisture. Once it does, it looks like some pretty significant rainfall totals could be realized over the weekend. A lot of this rain will fall in showers and storms associated with a couple cold frontal passages, with the last one exiting to our south sometime Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are observed areawide, with a mid level cloud layer mostly over the central and south central parts of VA. Overnight, expect a mix of stratus and fog as moisture returns to the region, with conditions between MVFR and IFR for most, but IFR to LIFR for the western terminals where cloud cover looks to be denser and ceilings lower. Conditions improve to VFR between 13 to 15Z for all terminals. High clouds move into the area from the west by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will go calm overnight, becoming west to southwesterly by the afternoon, and more southerly by the evening. Wind speed staying around 5 knots or lower through the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions through Friday, except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By Friday afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation through the weekend, with low stratus, fog, and moderate rain brings periods MVFR or lower conditions, especially Saturday and Sunday. NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE Saturday night. Some gusts expected but nothing over 20 kts except in thunderstorms. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...AS/SH