834
FXUS61 KRNK 031356
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
956 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will weaken through the day
while a series of weak disturbances enters our region from the
west, bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
through this evening. Better organized shower and thunderstorm
activity will arrive on Thursday ahead of a cold front, with a
few storms potentially becoming strong to severe. This cold
front will pass across the region on Friday, followed by another
stronger cold front arriving on Saturday. Dry Canadian high
pressure will then dominate the weather pattern through the
early half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday...

No major changes were made to the forecast this morning. Light
to moderate rain showers are currently moving to the northeast
up the I-81 corridor and into portions of NW North Carolina.
These showers will likely dissipate the further east they
progress as they move into drier air. Nevertheless, PoPs have
been kept the same as it looks to hold together through the New
River valley through mid day.

Previous Discussion:

Key Message:

1) Showers and a few storms will impact locations west of
Interstate 77 today, with coverage decreasing further east.

2) Any showers and storms will fade away toward sunset.

High pressure remains in place across the Mid-Atlantic and the
Carolinas this morning, however this high will gradually weaken
through the day and slide east as a series of weak upper level
disturbances arrives from the west. These disturbances will
bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in multiple
rounds through the day, with the highest rain chances found to
the west of Interstate 77. This activity will also advance as
far as the Piedmont this afternoon, but will also be fighting
the residual drier air associated with the departing high as
they progress, and will weaken. No severe storms are forecast
for today. Rainfall totals will be less than 0.25" for most
where this activity does occur, however a few may receive
localized amounts of 0.50" to 1" of rain, which would be
considered beneficial given we just finished a rather dry
August.

Expect a wider gradient in afternoon temperatures today
compared to the past few days, with rain holding highs in the
upper 60s and low 70s across the mountain empire region, while
the portions of the Piedmont will warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s as winds shift more from the south. Increasing clouds
ahead of an approaching cold front will hold lows for tonight in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Thursday and on Saturday due to passing cold fronts.

2) A marginal risk of severe weather exists for Thursday
afternoon.

A cold front will enter the Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.
CAPE should increase to 1,000 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk wind shear
climbing to about 40 knots according to model soundings by
Thursday afternoon. While most of the synoptic lift stays
further north, the aforementioned parameters bring a marginal
risk of severe weather along and west of the Blue Ridge with
damaging winds as the primary threat. The air mass will not
change much following the passage of this cold front, so Friday
still remains warm with high temperatures mainly in the 80s. The
high-resolution models indicate a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the southern Blue Ridge on Friday afternoon
as orographical lift combines with instability.

By Friday night, another cold front should approach from the
west. The increasing lift will provide a gradually rising chance
of showers across the mountains into Saturday morning. CAPE
should jump upward by Saturday afternoon to spark scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage expected along and east of
the Blue Ridge. There is a bit more westerly flow on Saturday
compared to Thursday, which may allow more downsloping and thus
reduce the probability of stronger storms to form. Drier air
should arrive in the mountains by Saturday night as this cold
front crosses the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier weather to start the new
week.

2) Temperatures should dip below normal.

The new week will begin with below normal temperatures in the
wake of a departing cold front as highs are anticipated to only
reach the 70s throughout this forecast period. Sunday may still
offer a chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of
the Blue Ridge, but the coverage and intensity of any convection
should be remarkably less compared to Saturday. High pressure
should build southeastward from the Great Lakes on Monday. The
models appear to be trending drier as the week progresses with
more solutions showing that high pressure will wedge against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and keep most of the moisture
shoved further to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Starting the morning off with mostly clear skies, though clouds
are increasing from the west as the first in a series of weak
disturbances advances east across southwest Virginia. Increasing
clouds will help to limit the development of mountain valley
fog, though a few pockets will still develop before dawn.

Showers and storms will move across southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia after 12Z today, bringing with them the
potential for low VFR or high MVFR ceilings at KBLF. Coverage of
showers and storms will be highest between KBLF and KTNB, with
coverage decreasing further east as the rain fights residual dry
air, causing the activity to diminish. Mention of showers are
included in the TAF for KBCB, but not enough confidence in
coverage to add mention in any TAFs further east. Showers and
storms will fade away by 04/00Z, and expect to enter tonight
under mainly VFR conditions. Winds and gusts will remain less
than 10kts through the 03/06Z TAF period, and will gradually
shift more southerly as today progresses.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An approaching cold front will support greater coverage of
storms and potential sub-VFR conditions for Thursday. A few
storms may become severe and capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. KDAN and KLYH are the least likely to receive rain
Thursday compared to the other terminals. Cloud cover will also
have an impact on whether there will be fog development during
the early morning hours of Friday before the cold front arrives.
Another front will arrive on Saturday, changing wind direction
to be from the northwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...EB/NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF