Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
666 FXUS61 KRNK 170555 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The unsettled weather pattern continues across a majority of the area through Thursday as an extremely moist airmass remains quasi-stationary over the region. A frontal boundary pushing through the region on Thursday will usher in a dry but hot airmass by Friday. Temperatures over the weekend may bring heat headlines to a portion of the area as a large upper level ridge settles over the eastern conus. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Flash flood threat continues along and south/east of the Blue Ridge in NW North Carolina and South Central Virginia today. The approach of a weak mid and upper level trough that looks to be placed along the lower Mississippi valley today will slightly increase the 200mb winds over the region. This increase will lead to more wind shear and generally faster storm motions today. While this would normally lead to a slightly less than favorable environment for flash flooding, the fact that PWATS will continue to remain in the 95th percentile at 1.5-1.75 inches across the region the threat for localized flash flooding will continue to remain. These PWATS combined with antecedent conditions of heavy rainfall over the last few days will only lead to a continued flash flood threat regardless of storm motions. Fortunately, the stationary boundary that has lead to backbuilding storms today should lift north through the area today as a warm front as this upper level trough makes its approach to the region. Storms are expected to develop along this boundary and the Blue Ridge and push east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. This has given enough confidence to issue another Flood Watch for portions of NW North Carolina and South Central Virginia where storms are forecast to develop and train east along this lifting warm front. These storms will have the potential to drop quick amounts of rainfall with rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour possible given the favorable environment. While chances of showers and thunderstorms remain elevated, temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Points: 1. Severe weather possible with a passing cold front Thursday 2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period. An upper level ridge over the southeast coast will expand northward Wednesday reducing the coverage of storms over the area. Storms will be diurnal/orographically driven rather than shortwave/disturbance driven. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to start across the mountains late in the afternoon, then drift east of the Blue Ridge in the evening. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 80s to lower 90s east. A strong disturbance will move eastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, sending a cold front over the area in the afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s along and east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support strong to severe storms with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. High pressure will follow the front on Friday, giving the forecast area the first rain-free day in over a week. High temperatures will run in the upper 70s to upper 80s, while dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Point: - Excessive Heat headline likely Sunday through Tuesday. An upper level ridge will move over the region this weekend. Hot and humid conditions will prevail into early next week. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Apparent temperatures could exceed 100F east of the Blue Ridge each afternoon. Excessive heat headline are likely Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are being observed tonight at all terminals except BLF and BCB. These conditions look to expand to all terminals during the remainder of the overnight hours as lingering moisture combined with a stalled frontal boundary lead to this development of low stratus and fog across the entire area. These restrictions do look to lift by the mid morning hours as the frontal boundary slowly starts lifting north of the area, and daytime heating mixes out the aforementioned low stratus and fog. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look likely again on Tuesday, which may bring back brief MVFR to LIFR restrictions to terminals during the afternoon and evening. These showers and thunderstorms should predominantly end by the 03 UTC timeframe with the exception of BLF and LWB. Winds will predominantly remain out of the southwest at around 5 knots or less through the TAF period with gusts up to 10 to 15 knots at times during the afternoon hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... An unsettled weather pattern remains in place through Thursday, with afternoon and evening storm chances each day bringing sub- VFR conditions when over any terminal. Low clouds and fog possible overnight each night. A cold front will usher in drier air for Friday with VFR likely into Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...EB/PM