760
FXUS61 KRNK 301816
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
116 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes to the east coast this evening. High
pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley Monday, while low
pressure develops along the front off the Gulf Coast. This
system will advance into our area Monday night into Tuesday with
another round of wintry weather changing to rain. High pressure
returns Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter Weather Advisory expired at Noon.

2) Spotty light rain/drizzle this afternoon, dry tonight-Monday.

Light rain and drizzle will be patchy ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed above freezing for
most, though some pockets of 32F still remain in portions of the
Alleghanys. Despite the front pushing through our area this
afternoon, skies will be mainly cloudy until later tonight when
jet level induced cirrus moves east, and enough mixing of dry
air clears out the lower clouds east of the WV mountains.

Brief period of cold advection will bring temperatures down into
20s for most, though confidence is low due to cloud cover
lingering which could keep temps warmer than forecast, so may
have some 30s in places like Roanoke.

Monday, look for high pressure to build overhead by early
afternoon, then shift to the northeast by evening. A dry day in
store with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds later in the
day from the south, ahead of our next weather maker.

With sunshine, temperatures should climb into the lower to mid
40s, expect some 30s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Wintry Precipitation likely Monday night into Tuesday.

Confidence continues to increase in a wintry weather setup for
Monday night into Tuesday. Much of the forecast from yesterday is on
track. A surface low pressure system in the south will be carried
northeastward (and to our east) by a mid-level trough over the
Midwest heading eastward. Isentropic lift and the 540 thickness
line will be over the Mid-Atlantic and provide rain, freezing rain,
and snow for the area. Confidence is high that everyone will get
some form of precipitation during this time period. Precipitation
will likely start after midnight (Tuesday morning). Cold air damming
(CAD) from a previous surface high will keep surface temperatures at
or below freezing for this area Monday night while warm and moist
air advects over it from a low level jet. Thus, freezing rain is
anticipated to be the dominant precipitation type for areas along
and west of the Blue Ridge until late Tuesday morning. The freezing
rain will transition into rain by the afternoon as temperatures warm
up into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Higher elevations may see snow
or a mix of rain and snow as well as freezing rain during the
forecast period. A separate round of upslope snow may impact Western
Greenbrier County Tuesday afternoon as the trough axis pushes
through. Total snow accumulations in Western Greenbrier is forecast
to be between 1-2" while most of the area west of the Blue Ridge may
not see more than half an inch at best. Ice accumulation is expected
to be between 0.10-0.20" along the Blue Ridge, the Alleghany
Highlands, and parts of southeast WV and the New River Valley. There
are some isolated locations that may reach up to 0.25". Freezing
rain may reach as far east as the central Piedmont, but there is a
sharp transition to rain just east of the Blue Ridge. These areas,
particularly in southside VA and Foothills/Piedmont of NC, are
likely to only receive rain during this event. Total rainfall
amounts (assuming 100% of the precipitation is rain) may be between
0.75-1.00". The surface low responsible for the winter weather will
be to our east by Tuesday evening and the area will be in the
subsidence side of the system. Winds will shift to northwesterly
as a high pressure system from the west starts to move into the
Mid- Atlantic. Winds may also gust to 10-20 mph Tuesday night
as the new air mass moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of NOON EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Wintry precipitation possible Friday. Precipitation chances
continue through the weekend.

2. Temperatures remaining below normal for the period, but trending
a few degrees warmer.

A dome of high pressure will become situated over the forecast area
by Wednesday morning, and remain overhead through at least Wednesday
night/Thursday morning. 500mb flow becomes more zonal through the
day, and then turning southwesterly through Thursday, as an upper
trough pushes eastward, driving a cold front through the northern
Mid Atlantic Thursday. Although this front is mostly dry, may see
some upslope snow showers in western Greenbrier County WV Thursday
with the frontal passage, but any accumulations will be light.
Another surface high will build in the region quickly behind the
front, with a shot of cold air. Will likely see wind gusts in the 15
to 25 mph range by Thursday afternoon for locations along and west
of the Blue Ridge, as an 850mb jet strengthens with the passage of
the front.

The more active weather comes Friday, with a southern stream trough
moving from the desert SW into the Gulf states, strengthening as it
moves through the central US. This system will advect a surge of
moisture northward from the Gulf, while the surface high over the
central Appalachians moves northeast and wedges against the eastern
sides of the mountains. Once this moisture arrives and overruns the
high pressure wedge in place over the area, will see a mix of wintry
precipitation. At this time, precipitation looks to begin as snow
for some, then transitioning to freezing rain as the warm air layer
aloft increase with the approach of the front, and then a change
over to rain as the surface temperatures warm enough above freezing.
Given the spread in deterministic models regarding the evolution of
this system and temperatures late in the week, confidence is low in
precipitation type, and is subject to change in future forecast
updates. However, still looks to be some impacts for the area, the
degree of which is uncertain at this time.

High pressure returns to the area behind this system, with more cold
air filtering in. Could see lingering snow showers in the mountains,
if the cold air can catch up to any remaining moisture.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the week
and the weekend, but trending a few degrees warmer. Highs will be in
the 30s to 40s in the west, and 40s to low 50s in the eats. Friday
will be the coldest day, with widespread highs in the 30s. Lows look
to remain at or below the freezing mark through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

MVFR to IFR restrictions this afternoon, should gradually
improve toward early evening as post-frontal winds kick up just
enough raise cigs to VFR east of the mountains. Some light
rain/drizzle still possible this afternoon, dries out by 0z.

BLF/LWB will retain lower cigs longer, with BLF possibly not
getting to VFR til 12z Monday.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another storm system arrives with more wintry weather Monday
night so expect sub-VFR cigs/vsbys late Monday night into
Tuesday. Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, slower at
BLF Wed. Friday yet another storm system looks to bring wintry
weather and poor flying weather to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EB/WP