838
FXUS61 KRNK 160736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
336 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain within the region through
this week. Several disturbances will move along the boundary,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms through the end of next
week. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Another relatively warm and steamy day.

2) High confidence for widespread rain in the form of showers
and thunderstorms today through tonight.

3) A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of SW VA, SE WV, and NW
NC from noon to midnight.

As of early this morning, showers had almost all come to an end
or moved SE of our area. Drizzle, fog, and stratus are
widespread, and while fog will mix out after sunrise, low clouds
will stick around, especially for areas closer to central VA
where easterly winds are. Even though clouds lift a little
everywhere, expect mostly overcast skies throughout the day and
night.

The 500mb pattern today will feature near zonal flow to weak
ridging for the first half of the day, with several areas of
short wave energy moving right through the forecast area this
afternoon and tonight. A wavy surface boundary/front snaked from
near Snowshoe, WV to Bedford, VA and south to near Greensboro,
NC. This front will remain in the area, and will help focus
showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. High
pressure continued to wedge over the eastern sections of the
forecast area, and this ENE flow and higher pressure will keep
QPF totals down in that region.

Elsewhere, moderate to heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
looks probable given moisture content throughout the
atmospheric layer remains very high. In addition, the front will
encourage training cells and slow storm motion, all important
factors in a flooding event. Rainfall totals through Tuesday
morning will be anywhere from a half inch to 2+ inches, with
lower values over the Buena Vista/Appomattox/Charlotte Court
House areas. The highest amounts will be along the southern Blue
Ridge and into the Greenbrier Valley. A Flood Watch has been
issued within the area from Boone, NC, north to Pipestem and
Greenbrier, WV, and south to Danville from noon to midnight.
This includes all our NW NC counties.

The NCAR neural net along with CSU machine learning
probabilities for severe weather and SPC all have low
probabilities for hail and damaging winds today and tonight.
However, we could see a few trees down thought, mainly due to
saturated soils and precipitation loading as cells release all
that water. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s today.
Lowered temperatures towards central VA where the high pressure
wedge will be. Showers and storms weaken again overnight tonight
and end for most by 2 AM, with another night of fog and stratus
expected.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Another round of storms Tuesday, with locally heavy rain
possible.
2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period.

An upper level ridge stretching across the Gulf states into the
western Atlantic will keep storm systems moving from the Midwest
to the Mid Atlantic through the period. Shortwaves that track
across our forecast area will continue to tap warm moist air,
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.
Models are hinting that the upper level ridge will lift
northward Wednesday. This will shift the storm systems` track
north of the area Wednesday. Heights will also increase
Wednesday, reducing the areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will run 3F to 6F warmer
than normal. Highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s
across the mountains to upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills
and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Robust showers/storms expected Thursday/Thursday night.
2. Hot and humid this weekend into early next week.

If an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and western
Atlantic shifts southwestward Thursday, then a cold front will
track across the area. If this ridges remains stubborn, this
cold front will likely stall in the vicinity, keeping showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Friday.

An upper level ridge will move over the region this weekend. Hot
and humid conditions will prevail into early next week.
Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s
across the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the foothills and
piedmont. Apparent temperatures could exceed 100F east of the
Blue Ridge Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

FAA comms outage at KDAN.

LIFR to IFR conditions currently at all terminals, with very low
stratus, fog, and occasional drizzle or rain showers across the
area.

Clouds gradually lift after sunrise, but models have backed off
on how much they will lift, so do not expect anything higher
than MVFR. Widespread showers and storms return by late morning
west of the Blue Ridge and by 1 pm or so east of it. Showers and
storms will have very heavy rainfall. Storms weaken after 00Z,
but expect some lingering showers and a return to LIFR/IFR
conditions in fog and stratus late tonight.

Winds are expected to remain light through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Unsettled weather pattern remains in place through Thursday,
with afternoon and evening storm chances each day bringing sub-
VFR conditions when over any terminal. Low clouds and fog
possible overnight each night. A cold front will usher in drier
air for Friday with VFR likely.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     VAZ010>020-022-023-032>034-043-044.
NC...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH