354
FXUS61 KRNK 161753
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
153 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front over our area will start to drift
north by midweek. A cold front arrives Thursday. We stay in
an unsettled pattern until the cold front pushes east Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Mainly a flooding threat this afternoon/evening where we have
the flood watch.

2) Isolated strong winds possible with thunderstorms.

3) Foggy late tonight, possibly dense.

Moist airmass in place with PWATS running 1.7 to 2.0". Efficient
rain producing storms with storm motion east at 10-20 mph, with
training producing. Storm coverage this afternoon will be
widespread in terms of radar coverage, but not everyone will see
a storm. Better upper support is pushing across this afternoon,
then heads east this evening. Based on heavier rainfall
yesterday the current flood watch is still valid with no plans
to expand it.

Rainfall rates given pwat values could exceed 4"/hr in deeper
convection. Any repeat storms or if they fall over urban areas
may lead to flash flooding.

Severe threat is low but not zero. Better parameters for
destablization appear to shift southeast across NC to the VA/NC
border this afternoon, so will have to watch for wet
microbursts. Further north, there is a in-situ wedge over the
central VA Piedmont which may limit thunder.

Storms will fade this evening but not really drop off til after
midnight. More showers may slide toward our WV counties by dawn
Tuesday ahead of the next shortwave.

With potential clearing later tonight, fog looks like a good bet
and could very well get dense in spots.

Temperatures stay muggy at night and very warm during the
afternoon Tuesday.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible, along with gusty
winds Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period.

An upper level ridge stretching across the Gulf states into the
western Atlantic will keep storm systems moving from the Midwest to
the Mid Atlantic. Shortwaves that track across our forecast area
will continue to tap warm moist air, bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Models are hinting that the
upper level ridge will lift northward Wednesday, which will shift
the storm system track north of the area. Heights will also increase
Wednesday, reducing the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening and increasing storm motions.

A stronger front will approach from the west on Thursday coinciding
with a stronger upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. Best
forcing appears to move to our north, but should have some increased
shear locally. Increasing shear combined with moderately unstable
conditions ahead of the front should result in organized
thunderstorm lines/clusters as the front moves across the region.
Main threat will be strong damaging winds.

High temperatures Wednesday will run 3F to 6F warmer than normal.
Highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the mountains
to upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.LONG As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Heat builds into the weekend.

2. Less rain and thunderstorm chances for the weekend and into early
next week.

An strong upper level ridge will move over the region this weekend
and persist into early next week. Hot and humid conditions will
prevail into early next week. Afternoon temperatures will peak in
the mid 80s to lower 90s across the mountains and mid to upper 90s
in the foothills and piedmont. Apparent temperatures could exceed
100F east of the Blue Ridge Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Limited rain chances through the period is expected.TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday...

FAA comms outage at KDAN, amd not sked for that site.

MVFR to VFR cigs this afternoon outside any storms. Tried to
time storms based on radar/high res models which generally favor
the 19-24z time frame, then siding more toward VCSH/VCTS this
evening, and amend as needed. With any storms vsbys/cigs can
drop to IFR or lower.

Overnight tonight, looks like cigs sink to IFR to LIFR along
with vsbys running IFR or lower at times, especially in the
mountains.

Should see things improve to MVFR/VFR by 14-15z Tue.

Winds are expected to remain light through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Unsettled weather pattern remains in place through Thursday,
with afternoon and evening storm chances each day bringing sub-
VFR conditions when over any terminal. Low clouds and fog
possible overnight each night. A cold front will usher in drier
air for Friday with VFR likely into Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ010>020-022-023-
     032>034-043-044.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...WP