575
FXUS61 KRNK 291031
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
631 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close
out the workweek today. An upper level trough swinging through
the area today will bring breezy conditions through the
afternoon and evening hours. Wedging conditions may bring a few
showers late in the weekend as moisture is drawn back north
into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Cool, dry, but breezy weather is on tap for today.

An upper level trough and associated frontal boundary will push
through the region today. While dry air remains in place, and
will predominantly keep rain chances well north of the area
where better forcing for ascent is present. Nevertheless, the
axis of the upper level trough looks to swing through the
forecast area today, which will increase winds through the
afternoon hours as 500mb heights fall, and some 850mb winds mix
down to the surface during peak heating this afternoon. This
will lead to some gusts up to 15-20 mph at times during the
afternoon and evening hours. While winds will be a little gusty,
highs will climb to there warmest in days, with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 70s west of the Blue Ridge, and
low 80s east of the Blue Ridge thanks to some downsloping
effects. Low temperatures tonight will again dip into the upper
40s to low 50s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 50s east
of the Blue Ridge. Overall, expect a predominantly sunny and
pleasant day with some clouds mixing in throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated storm chances each afternoon, best chances Sunday.

2) Temperatures continue to remain below normal through the period.

High pressure builds into the region behind the front that will be
off to our south. Dry air will keep most convection suppressed for
Saturday, though the easterly upslope flow caused by the location of
the high in the Great Lakes will allow for a few isolated
showers/storms in the NC mountains during the afternoon peak heating
hours. At the upper-levels, a deep trough will continue to linger
over the eastern CONUS, with a shortwave swinging down into the area
for Sunday.

On Sunday, an inverted trough will be along the western
Appalachians. This will increase moisture across the area, and
combined with daytime heating, will allow scattered showers/storms
to form. Rain chances have trended up west of the Blue Ridge, with
PoPs around 40-60% Sunday afternoon. The Piedmont will see isolated
showers/storms and PoPs of 20-40%. This will be the best chance of
rain area-wide until late next week. The high across the
Northeastern US will begin to wedge down into the area Sunday night,
keeping cool and more stable conditions in place. The upper-level
shortwave moves out of the area for Monday, and the inverted trough
weakens and moves west. These factors will limit convection on
Monday back into the NC/VA mountains, with isolated rain chances in
the afternoon.

Rain totals have risen since yesterday for the period, but still
remain relatively light. Most areas will receive under a quarter
inch, though higher amounts will be possible in the heaviest
convection. The NC mountains will see the highest totals, around
0.50" on average.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the
70s area-wide, with a few spots reaching 80 in the Piedmont. Sunday
and Monday will see cooler temperatures thanks to more cloud cover
and the wedge building into the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s
for the mountains with 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool and quiet weather through midweek.

2) Next system moves in sometime late next week.

The high pressure wedge across the area will remain in place through
midweek, though it begins to weaken by Tuesday night. The drier air
will continue to keep mostly quiet conditions across the Mid-
Atlantic initially, but rain chances will increase each day as the
wedge weakens and winds turn southerly both at the surface and aloft
to increase moisture advection into the area. A strong cold front
approaches from the west late next week. Models are in agreement
that this will occur, but differ on the timing of the front and the
location of the low pressure system that will be somewhere near the
Great Lakes. This will be the best chance of widespread heavy
rainfall in weeks. Until then, daily afternoon showers/storms will
be possible, though PoPs remain around 20-40% until Thursday when
the front begins to move into the area.

Temperatures will continue to run below normal through the period
thanks to the high pressure wedge. Highs remain in the 60s/70s,
before approaching 80 in the Piedmont by Thursday. Lows will be in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday....

VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals with the
exception of LWB this morning where some valley fog may lead to
brief temporary restrictions through day break this morning and
Saturday morning. As an upper level trough and associated
frontal boundary pushes through the region today, winds will
become northwesterly this afternoon. Gusts this afternoon look
to increase to around 15 to 20 knots at times at times as
stronger winds aloft get mixed down. These gusty winds should
start to diminish through the evening hours, and return to winds
around 5 knots or less during the early overnight hours.

Forecast confidence is high, but moderate for fog at KLWB.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions should continue into next week, though some
wedging of high pressure may bring enough moisture for a few
showers/storms to the mountains late in the weekend into next
week with potential sub-VFR cigs.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB