Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
189 FXUS61 KRNK 070541 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 141 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east for Sunday afternoon and evening look less likely to be severe. However a locally damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest storms. 2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal temperatures for the Piedmont at times. A return to daily convection as well. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east for Sunday afternoon and evening look less likely to be severe. However a locally damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest storms. A cold front stretching from New England through the OH Valley and westward will gradually shift south reaching our doorstep late Sunday into Monday. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will develop in north central VA and may edge into eastern parts of our forecast area as daytime heating contributes to marginal instability and the cold front nears. At this time the lack of instability will mean we are mostly expecting garden variety showers and thunderstorms, with a Marginal chance for a few storms to become strong to severe. Locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells. Key Message 2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal temperatures for the Piedmont at times. A return to daily convection as well. Behind the cold front, high pressure attempts to build in behind but is quickly shifted east Tuesday by a warm frontal system moving out of the Midwest and into the TN Valley. This will also herald an increase in moisture and a more complete break down of the Omega Block. This should lead to an increase in mid level energy in our vicinity and support increased chances for precipitation for much of next week. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms next week, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. As far as sensible weather, today and Sunday look like the warmest days, with the Piedmont creeping into the low to even mid 90s in the afternoons. On Monday I lowered highs a bit as the cold front is expected to be through the area. Even if it is not, cloud cover should keep temperatures from getting too hot. Although we will be well above normal for temperatures in the Piedmont, any record-breaking heat will remain outside of our forecast area. That said, it will seem quite hot with humidity also gradually increasing this week. Wednesday through Friday look especially muggy. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Have added VCTS to LYH as some isolated thunderstorms look to push within the vicinity of LYH after 19 UTC this afternoon. These thunderstorms should push south and east out of the area of LYH by 00 UTC. Some VCSH has been added to DAN after 00 UTC to account for these showers along the frontal boundary moving south throughout the late evening and early overnight period. Winds will predominantly be out of the west at around 10 knots or less through the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... On Monday, some additional SHRA and TSRA look possible at BCB and BLF during the early morning hours and late afternoon and evening hours. As high pressure settles into the Northeast on Monday, winds will transition to the northeast, with occasional gusts up to 25 knots possible. As the high pressure pushes off the Mid-Atlantic states coastlines late Monday into Tuesday, winds are expected to transition to easterly and southeasterly across all terminals. This will return moisture back into the region allowing for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms may cause brief periods of sub-VFR conditions and brief periods of erratic and gusty winds if they move in the vicinity or over a terminal. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...EB