915
FXUS61 KRNK 191840
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Forecast Updated. Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday, with an
increased threat of heavy rain across the Piedmont on Friday.

2) Drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday, with an
increased threat of heavy rain across the Piedmont on Friday.

Quiet weather conditions continued across the forecast area
today, thanks to a weak surface high centered over western
Pennsylvania. Overall, expect mostly quiet conditions to
continue through tonight, even as the high shifts eastward and a
cold front approaches from the Great Lakes Region tonight.

With the approach of the front Thursday, expect rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity will return. There`s still
indications that a weakening line of thunderstorms will enter
Southeast West Virginia and Southwest Virginia during the
morning commute. Moist air pooling ahead of the front will then
support scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening. Any of the storms will be capable of producing a
damaging wind gust and/or heavy downpours that could result in
localized flash flooding, though there are no specific locations
under an increased threat for severe weather. Will also be
keeping an eye on heat indices across the Piedmont, which will
rise into the mid- to upper 90s during mid-afternoon, and
possibly touch the low 100s in a few spots.

Looking to Friday, confidence is increasing that an upper-
level disturbance will support development of thunderstorms
capable of producing high rainfall rates across the Piedmont
during the evening. This area has been highlighted for a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall, indicating an increased probability
that localized flash flooding may occur, especially if storms
pass repeatedly over the same locations. Latest data suggests
that the most likely impacted areas stretch from the foothills
of northwest North Carolina into the Southside area of Virginia,
though this may be expanded in coverage as new data becomes
available. The most likely timing of the heavy rain threat is
between 6 p.m. and midnight.

From Friday onward, daily temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal for the second half of August, with no unusual
heat expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early next
week.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as upper-
level troughiness continues to allow a disturbances pass through
our region. Another cold front is forecast to push through our
area Sunday as the upper-level pattern begins to change. This
will result in a drier airmass arriving for the end of the
upcoming weekend and continue into the first few days of next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. These
conditions are likely to persist into the evening. As we head
into early Thursday morning, guidance depicts another chance of
sub-VFR visibilities and patchy stratus, most favored at BCB,
BLF, and LWB. The highest confidence is at LWB, where fog will
be favored early Thursday, similar to what occurred this
morning. A weakening system approaching from the west could
bring light rain showers to the western TAF sites, most favored
at BLF. However, these conditions are not likely to result in
sub-VFR conditions. Convective chances will pick up Thursday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the eastern terminals.

OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday
through Saturday, resulting in scattered sub-VFR conditions in
the form of low visibilities due to areas of heavy rain, as well
as low ceilings, especially at night. Daytime conditions will
mainly be VFR outside of rainfall. Improved flying conditions
will return on Sunday as drier air arrives across the lower Mid-
Atlantic.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/NF
AVIATION...AK/NF