Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
279 FXUS61 KRNK 020649 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain situated across the Mid-Atlantic today into early Wednesday, before beginning to shift east on Wednesday evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday before it drives across the Mid-Atlantic during early Friday, followed by the passage of a second stronger cold front on Saturday. Dry Canadian high pressure will then dominate the weather pattern through the early half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) Minimal concerns for hazardous weather through tonight. Concerns for any hazardous weather remain today as high pressure is situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The persistent east-northeasterly windflow around the high will maintain a fetch of cool, generally dry air from the New England area, which will hold afternoon highs 6 to 8 degrees below normal for early September as they warm into the 70s. With a weak disturbance passing overhead this afternoon, may see very localized and brief showers develop along the mountain ridges, however have low confidence on where any will develop. Any activity that does develop will fizzle quickly after 6 pm as sunset approaches. Aside from that, plan for abundant sunshine occasionally intermixed with passing clouds. Looking to late tonight, a stronger disturbance will approach from the west, with showers and isolated thunderstorms entering areas west of Interstate 77 by daybreak Wednesday. Rainfall amounts in those areas will remain light overnight. Increased cloud cover will hold overnight lows mainly in the 50s. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) Warming temperatures, but still cooler than normal. 2) Afternoon and evening storms likely Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, a dynamic weather pattern will sweep across the region as a shortwave tracks directly over our area. This will bring a day of widespread showers, particularly for those in the mountains of Southwest Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North Carolina, where rain will be a factor for much of the day. As the day progresses and the system moves eastward, the rain will arrive in the foothills and Piedmont during the evening hours. It`s possible that some areas, specifically in Southside Virginia and the Northwest North Carolina Piedmont, may miss the storms entirely, with only a few showers or no rainfall at all. Temperatures will reflect the cloud cover and precipitation, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid-70s west of the Blue Ridge, while areas to the east will see warmer conditions, with highs in the low to mid-80s. The weather on Thursday will be influenced by a new systeman upper- level low positioned over the Great Lakes. This low will push a surface trough across our region, bringing another round of showers and storms. In the mountains, the storms will likely develop during the afternoon and then taper off in the evening. East of the Blue Ridge, the activity will be delayed, beginning in the evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Friday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be higher in the mountains, with a quarter to a half- inch possible, while the foothills and Piedmont will likely see less, with a tenth to a quarter of an inch. High temperatures will once again show a significant difference based on location, with the mountains remaining in the 70s, and the foothills and Piedmont reaching the mid-80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Cold front and storms arrives Saturday. 2) Dry and cooler weather returns starting Sunday. A period of calmer weather will arrive on Friday as a weak high-pressure system settles over the region. While the majority of the day will be dry, there`s a slight chance for an isolated, diurnal shower to pop up, particularly in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a mixed bag, with the mountains enjoying highs in the mid-70s to low-80s, and the foothills and Piedmont experiencing a warmer day with temperatures in the mid to upper-80s. The next significant change will occur on Saturday as a cold front moves across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid- Atlantic states. This front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. The storms will begin in the mountains during the afternoon and then move eastward, affecting the foothills and Piedmont in the evening. High temperatures on Saturday will be similar to Friday, with the mountains seeing mid to upper-70s and the foothills and Piedmont reaching the mid to upper-80s, with a chance of even hitting 90 degrees in Southside Virginia. Looking ahead to the start of the next week, the region will be under the influence of a strong, dry high-pressure system from Sunday through Tuesday. This will usher in a stretch of beautiful, tranquil weather with significantly cooler temperatures. Highs will be much more comfortable, ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s, making for a pleasant end to the weekend and start to the week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Monday... Starting the morning with generally VFR conditions under passing high clouds and with light winds. Satellite imagery does indicate mountain river valley fog beginning to develop, which will linger through 13Z to 14Z before burning off. VFR conditions will remain predominant through the period, with high pressure situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas today. Windflow will be from the east-northeast, with sustained speeds at most locations at 5kts to 7kts, and occasional gusts to 15kts. Latest data suggests that a few showers may develop with afternoon heating, though they will be highly localized and brief in duration. Not enough confidence in location or timing to make mention in the TAFs. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will enter the region from the west on Wednesday morning as high pressure weakens and a disturbance passes overhead. A cold front will bring sub-VFR conditions, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday before it pushes across the Mid-Atlantic during early Friday, followed by the passage of a second stronger cold front on Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...NF