Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
433 FXUS61 KRNK 291737 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in a building cold air damming scenario over the weekend, along with widespread precipitation. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend. 1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into early next week with increasing chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend. A broad sub-tropical ridge now over the Gulf coast states will move east and build north into the interior Mid-Atlantic the next couple of days. Our recent period of cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds/WAA tomorrow through Friday. This will mean an increase in temperatures, with some locations reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s in the Piedmont and around larger urban areas like Roanoke tomorrow through Friday. It looks like a brief CAD event develops for the weekend. Expect Increasing clouds and rain chances to suppress temperatures on Saturday, with frontal passages ushering in even cooler weather for Sunday into Monday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. The wedge looks to break down on Tuesday with sunshine returning...however cooler temperatures remain. KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. Cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds and slowly increasing moisture through Friday. By then, the sub-tropical ridge will be suppressed as a mean trough axis approaches from the west. Most of the cyclonic energy will stay to our north, but it will help drive a surface low and frontal system into the area for the weekend. Several ensemble members hold precip off until Friday evening, as it will take some time for the atmosphere to regain moisture. Once it does, it looks like some pretty significant rainfall totals could be realized over the weekend. A lot of this rain will fall in showers and storms associated with a couple cold frontal passages, with the last one exiting to our south sometime Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... We are seeing mostly VFR conditions with plenty of cumulus and stratocumulus over northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. The exceptions were BLF and LWB, which were still MVFR, created from moisture traveling around the nor`easter off the coast of Maine. We should VFR develop at those sites over the next couple of hours. We will see more stratus and fog overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with BLF and LWB likely seeing residual moisture turn into LIFR/IFR stratus once again. Elsewhere, we will see a mix of MVFR to LIFR fog and stratus, with less stratus and more fog than we saw this morning. However, where more stratus was expected, did not include nearly as much fog. Winds remain calm to light and variable this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Light WSW winds should develop for most locations by tomorrow afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will bring mostly VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday, except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By Friday afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation through the weekend, with low stratus, fog, and moderate rain bringing MVFR or lower conditions for an extended time. NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE Saturday night. Some gusts expected but nothing over 20 kts except in thunderstorms. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH