062
FXUS61 KRNK 130009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
809 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control to provide dry weather with
light winds through the weekend and into early next week. The
next chance of rain may not come until the middle of the week
along and east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Only minor temp/dewpt trend adjustments per recent obs otherwise
no changes made and forecast on track. Should have another
overnight of strong radiational cooling to below climo lows
given the ridge in place and calm winds. Expecting some patchy
morning fog again as well. Previous discussion follows...


As of 135 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather through Saturday.

2) Temperatures will continue to trend back to near normal
values for this time of year.

High pressure remains in control across the Appalachian
Mountains and should persist through tonight into Saturday. Some
scattered cumulus clouds will continue to traverse southwestward
during this afternoon as the flow stays mostly out of the
northeast. Clearing skies overnight should allow patchy fog to
form along the river valleys by early Saturday morning. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to the mid 50s,
which are still below normal by a good five degrees. However,
high temperatures on Saturday should approach near normal
values with lower 70s to lower 80s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Dry conditions persist, temperatures increase a few degrees.

High pressure at the surface remains in control of the weather
pattern through the weekend and into the beginning of the work
week, resulting in continued dry weather. Troughing aloft over
the eastern US will keep the area within broad northwesterly
flow, and a narrow ridge strengthens over the central US, though
getting squeezed by another trough over the western US. A dry
cold front will drop south through the area on Monday, stalling
over the southeastern states, where a coastal low looks to
develop. This feature will eventually make its way northward,
but will start to bring some moisture into the eastern parts of
the forecast area by the beginning of the work week. With the
increasing atmospheric moisture, fog is likely in the mornings.
Overall, mostly sunny and dry with warm temperatures through the
weekend.Temperatures start to increase through the period, to a
few degrees above normal, by about 5 degrees or so, in the mid
70s in the west, to low 80s in the east. Overnight lows will
trend more mild as dewpoints tick upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Chances for rain increase by the middle of the week, though
confidence is low.

2. Temperatures hovering near to a few degrees above normal.

A coastal low will develop along a stalled front positioned off
the coast of the eastern US, and will track along it through
the work week. At this time, the local forecast area looks to
remain to the west of the low, and so easterly onshore flow will
advect moisture into the area towards the midweek. Thus,
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms increase Tuesday
and through Wednesday, first for areas along and south of the
VA/NC line as early as Tuesday morning, and then east of the
Blue Ridge Wednesday. Long range deterministic models continue
to show disagreement on the exact positioning of the low as it
moves, as high pressure will hold fast over the northeastern US,
and so uncertainty is still higher regarding probabilities and
coverage of precipitation. Most likely will be scattered showers
with possible thunderstorms, but this scenario could still
change with subsequent forecast updates. Winds may also become
breezy through the middle of the week as the pressure gradient
tightens between the two. Temperatures look to around normal, in
the 70s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday, to up to 8 degrees
above normal, then back into the low 80s for the Piedmont by the
end of next week. Lows will be in the 50s in the west, and 60s
in the east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions initially expected with mostly clear skies for
most sites and perhaps some lingering cu in the western sites
into tonight. Some reduced VSBYs with morning fog possible and
perhaps lower with low cigs as well for LWB. Daytime cu field
tomorrow again possible FEW/SCT near 6 kft. Winds calm overnight
then staying light VRB tomorrow or light east to NE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through
Sunday and Monday. The only exception will be patchy fog in the
river valleys during the nighttime into early morning hours. By
Tuesday, the models indicate a low pressure system cutting off
along the South Carolina coast and possibly spreading moisture
northward to bring the next chance of rain and potential MVFR/IFR
conditions through Wednesday along and east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...AB/PW
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AB/PW