815
FXUS61 KRNK 021122
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
622 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Next rainfall chances will come late Wednesday and into
Thursday, but amounts continue to trend downward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather continues as temperatures warm up early this
week, next rainfall arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather continues as temperatures warm up
early this week, next notable rain chance arrives Wednesday
night into Thursday.

A weak upper-level shortwave passing through the area this
morning has resulted in some light showers/drizzle mainly west
of the Blue Ridge. Dry air continues to erode the shower
activity preventing it from reaching any further east. Should
see these showers begin to wane by sunrise.

High pressure pushes offshore into the Atlantic into Tuesday,
with the clockwise flow around the high bringing warmer
temperatures back into the area. Highs will climb into the 70s,
with some Piedmont locations approaching 80 by Wednesday ahead
of the next system. The next system will move across the Upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region by Thursday, with the
accompanying cold front bringing a chance of rain to our
forecast area. However, models have continued to back off on
precipitation coverage, as the system and upper- level trough
both try to retreat farther north, resulting in less moisture
and lift across our area. While the entire area is currently
expected to still receive some measurable rainfall, greatest
amounts look to be confined west of the Blue Ridge.

May see some lingering upslope showers along the western slopes
through Saturday given persistent NW flow. Otherwise, quiet
weather once again returns through next weekend, with
temperatures still slightly above normal but cooling off around
5 degrees behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light rain and drizzle moving through this morning, but
cigs/vsby to remain VFR. Dry air helping to prevent cloud bases
from lowering, so most are at AOA 5kft. Intermittent showers to
continue, but taper off later this morning. Dry for the
remainder of the valid TAF period with clouds gradually
clearing...continued VFR into tonight

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR likely through at least Wednesday. A frontal system looks
to approach late Wednesday night and into Thursday bringing
with it the next chance for sub- VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG/SH