Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
463 FXUS61 KRNK 060015 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 815 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A few showers could develop overnight, but overall not expecting any severe weather as the front shifts into the Carolinas. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms today. More showers and storms possible Sunday morning. Dry to start the work week. 2) Break in the heat late in the weekend, but heat builds again towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms today. More showers and storms possible Sunday morning. Dry to start the work week. Storms have reached the area, and have been ongoing since this morning, with the most intense activity having occurred west of Interstate 77 in VA, with scattered severe storms in the NC Foothills and Piedmont at this time. These clusters of storms have resulted in numerous reports of downed trees, and associated outflows out ahead of the storms have also brought down several trees, not surprising given DCAPE on the sounding at RNK already 1100 J/kg as of 12Z this morning. The storms are riding along a strong DCAPE gradient, roughly oriented SW to NE from NC into southern VA. These storms should be out of the area by the early to mid afternoon. Some CAMs are indicating redevelopment of convection, but more scattered in nature, in the NC Piedmont by later today. These areas have been under clear skies, with temperatures already in the 90s. SBCAPE over that region is over 2500 J/kg, and 3000 J/kg or higher along and south of VA/NC border. DCAPE is forecast to remain high, particularly over central NC, so any storms later today will still have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. The cold front sags south tonight, which could keep some isolated showers and possible storms over the Blue Ridge during the overnight hours. By Sunday, the front will be over NC, so most shower and storm activity will come to an end for most of the region. However, with some moisture still in the vicinity of the front, and mid level shortwave disturbances moving in, can still expect some isolated showers and storms along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially west of Interstate 77, during the afternoon and evening. A broad surface high pressure system moves across the north eastern US by Monday, and will build southward into the region, prompting a few days of quieter weather. Another front approaches the area late in the week, which will bring the potential for more showers and storms, especially as the heat builds once again. KEY MESSAGE 2: Break in the heat late in the weekend, but heat builds again towards the middle of next week. Sunday and Monday will be cooler, with high temperatures in the mid 70s in the west and low to mid 80s in the east, only a couple degrees above normal. The 500mb ridge will move back towards the east ridge and will become more centered over the southern and eastern US, which will bring the return to hot temperatures by the middle part of next week, though does not look to be quite as hot as last week at this time. A frontal passage by the end of the week will help to break down the ridge, and bring some cooler conditions back to the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR this evening and should continue through at least midnight or so. Some fog possible where it can remain clear. Low clouds also a possibility given a strong signal on model guidance this evening. Still not so certain of this yet based on observations across the Mid-Atlantic, but guidance showing a strong enough signal to continue to advertise it for most terminals through Sunday. Some rain showers also have the potential to develop through midday Sunday, especially across the mountains. A few isolated thunderstorms also possible, but this looks to remain further west across far SW VA and portions of SE WV. Have at least added a mention of VCTS for BCB/BLF Sunday afternoon. Winds will gradually shift from northwest to northeast as the front continues to shift south overnight and into Sunday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday. Another cold front approaches late in the work week, and could bring increased rain chances by Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/BMG AVIATION...AS/BMG/EB