978
FXUS61 KRNK 142356
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
756 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the forecast given recent guidance.
Added some river valley fog into the weather grids tonight to
account recent CAM guidance, and favorable pattern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Significant heat returns Wednesday through the weekend, however
we look to stay below heat advisory or warning criteria.

2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant heat returns Wednesday through the
weekend, however we look to stay below heat advisory or warning
criteria.

Large scale upper ridge of high pressure builds into the area from
the NW today. This will push the enhanced moisture axis south of the
area and the switch to a dry subsident airmass will allow for mostly
clear conditions through Thursday. Some suspended smoke further
north could makes its way into the area by tomorrow which could
result in some haze. Temps will moderate warmer going into
midweek with Wednesday through Friday having the highest max
temps of the forecast period. The temps combined with some
increased dewpoints could result in heat indices near the low
100s for parts of the Piedmont during this period and possibly
near the 105 deg advisory level in the east on Thursday. Please
monitor future updates to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms return for Friday into the weekend.

The aforementioned ridge dampens and breaks down by Friday allowing
for a return of moisture advecting in from the west and increased
chances for diurnally driven convection. Coverage of showers and
storms should increase for Saturday as an amplified shortwave trough
digs into the area. On the heels of this feature, a frontal boundary
is progged to track SEWD for Sunday and again allow for increased
coverage of convection. While still pretty far out to properly
assess severe potential, for now shear parameters are not impressive
though low level lapse rates could be quite high so some stronger
convection could have enhanced downdraft winds each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals except LWB and
possibly BCB where some river valley fog early in the morning
may lead to some VSBY and CIG restrictions in the MVFR to LIFR
levels. After looking at at model soundings for tomorrow
(Wednesday), it appears that there is too much dry air through
the column to have much of a scattered cu field; however, a few
clouds at 5-6 thousand feet can`t be ruled out. Overall, skies
will remain predominantly clear across all terminals after any
river valley fog lifts.

Winds will predominantly remain light at around 5 mph across all
terminals. Wind directions look to remain out of the
west/northwest through much of the TAF period.

Some smoke from wildfires out west may move over the area
tomorrow; however, this smoke would likely be aloft, and would
not affect terminals at the ground level.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Diurnal showers and thunderstorms
are expected to return Friday through Monday, bringing some
gusty winds and heavy rainfall as well as periods of MVFR or
lower conditions. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be
possible each morning.

Winds will be variable in direction Wednesday through Friday. A
west wind with speeds between 6 and 12 kts develops Saturday
and Sunday, with gusts to 20 kts or so.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/EB