144
FXUS61 KRNK 150654
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
254 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain within the region through
next week. Several disturbances will move along the boundary,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms through the end of next
week. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding, with
damaging wind gusts possible Sunday with the strongest storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) High confidence for widespread rain in the form of showers
and thunderstorms beginning early afternoon through this
evening.

2) A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of SW VA and NW NC
this afternoon through tonight.

The weather pattern aloft remain active, with zonal flow
currently overhead. A small but potent short wave approaches
from the west over the next 48 hours, and vorticity out ahead of
it will cross our area today during the heat of the day.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, with
temperatures in the 70s for the mountains and the 80s for the
piedmont combining with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s.
This combination looks highest over the VA and NC Piedmonts,
where MUCAPEs of 1500-2000+ J/kg are forecast.

A backdoor cold front is progged to shift south across our
northeastern sections today. This will put part of central VA/S.
Shenandoah Valley in a high pressure wedge, with easterly winds
developing over NE sections of the forecast area. This wedge
front will help enhance cell training along it and to the south,
and suppress activity to the NE. We are anticipating cells with
moderate to heavy rainfall, with PWATs most likely breaking the
daily maximum record for the day (1.61 inches per SPC), with
values closer to 2 inches over the piedmont.

Severe storms look marginal given lack of shear, however plenty
of instability may compensate and produce a severe cell or two
with damaging winds. Weak winds through most of the atmospheric
layer will result in only marginally favorable lapse rates. Bulk
shear around 15-20 kts and 0-1 km shear of only 5 knots or so
will not support more than single cell development, eventually
merging into multicell storms. Storms will likely be dominated
by outflow and wedge front interactions. Storm motion looks to
be about 15 kt or less. These factors reinforce the concern for
heavy rain and training cells possibly resulted in flash,
areal, and urban and small stream flooding.

As such a Flood Watch has been issued to include from Stokes
County to Charlotte County, where QPE amounts look best. After
the convection winds down, expect another night of stratus, fog,
and perhaps some drizzle overnight tonight into Monday morning
with little change in surface features.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms are expected each afternoon as we remain in a summer-time
pattern.

2) Temperatures will be below normal Monday but rebound to above
normal the rest of the period.

The persistent pattern that has been across our area continues early
next week, as the large Bermuda high offshore continues to push
warm, moist air into the region with southwesterly flow. However,
there will be one noticeable difference on Monday. High pressure will
wedge into our area, behind a backdoor cold front that pushes
through late weekend. This will keep the area more cloudy and
cooler. Upper-level waves of vorticity will move into the area
Monday, which will increase PoP chances area-wide. Showers and
storms will develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening
hours after sunset, with flash flooding a possibility if the storms
are slow moving or train over the same areas. With repeated rainfall
each day the past week or so, areas could be more prone to flooding.

Tuesday will see the wedge back out of the area, with the warm front
then moving back north across our area. At the same time, a
shortwave upper-level trough moves in from the west. These factors
will allow for widespread storm coverage in the afternoon. Isolated
severe weather cannot be ruled out, with damaging wind gusts as the
threat. By Wednesday, the warm front pushes well into the Northeast,
while a more zonal pattern aloft along with drier air at the mid-
levels will likely keep convection scattered across the area in the
afternoon, with the most likely areas for rain being west of the
Blue Ridge. The trend over the past couple of days is that Wednesday
is looking slightly drier.

QPF totals during the period are generally around 0.5-1.0", though
local amounts could be higher under the heaviest storms.
Temperatures through the period will start our below normal thanks
to the wedge on Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Temperatures
rebound Tuesday and Wednesday, into the 80s, with low 90s in the
Piedmont midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) A strong cold front will move in late Thursday, potentially
bringing severe weather.

2) Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

3) Quieter and drier weather moves in behind the front for next
weekend.

Any storms that formed during the day Wednesday will gradually
taper off after sunset into the overnight hours. Thursday will
see the main cold front move in from the west with showers and
storms again developing in the afternoon ahead of the front in
the unstable airmass. The front will have upper-level support,
which will aid in storm development. The timing of the
precipitation continues to be quicker, models now having the
rain moving into the area late Thursday afternoon for the
mountains. This would bring storms into the area during peak
heating hours, increasing the potential severe weather threat.
Details are still uncertain this far out, but it will continue
to be monitored.

The front moves through Thursday night into Friday morning, with
high pressure both at the surface and aloft building in to the
Mid- Atlantic. Although temperatures will not greatly reduce
behind the front, drier air is expected, lowering the dewpoints
into the 50s and low 60s, which will be some relief from the
humidity. The drier air will keep mostly quiet and dry weather
across the entire area, though a stray storm cannot be ruled out
through next weekend.

Temperatures will remain above average through the period, with
highs generally in the 80s, with low 90s in the Piedmont each
day. Heat indexes on Thursday could reach the upper 90s. Lows
remain in the 60s area-wide each morning until Saturday morning,
when areas west of the Blue Ridge will be in the upper 50s
behind the front.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR or MVFR today through about 15-17Z, then increasing TSRA in
the forecast with mainly MVFR conditions this afternoon and
evening. Becoming MVFR or lower after 16/00Z at all terminals,
with ROA, LYH,and BCB likely seeing LIFR conditions with an
easterly wind bringing in more moisture to contribute to fog and
stratus.

During the day, LYH will see easterly winds which should
protect them from most -TSRA. Other terminals will be WSW today
becoming light and variable overnight.

Additional thunderstorms expected on Monday, but less
widespread.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Stormy pattern remains in place through midweek, with afternoon
and evening storm chances each day bringing sub-VFR conditions
when over any terminal. Low clouds and fog possible overnight
each night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ058-059.
NC...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB