526
FXUS61 KRNK 171030
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
630 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The unsettled weather pattern continues across a majority of the
area through Thursday as an extremely moist airmass remains
quasi-stationary over the region. A frontal boundary pushing
through the region on Thursday will usher in a dry but hot
airmass by Friday. Temperatures over the weekend may bring heat
headlines to a portion of the area as a large upper level ridge
settles over the eastern conus.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Flash flood threat continues along and south/east of the Blue
 Ridge in NW North Carolina and South Central Virginia today.


The approach of a weak mid and upper level trough that looks to be
placed along the lower Mississippi valley today will slightly
increase the 200mb winds over the region. This increase will lead to
more wind shear and generally faster storm motions today. While this
would normally lead to a slightly less than favorable environment
for flash flooding, the fact that PWATS will continue to remain in
the 95th percentile at 1.5-1.75 inches across the region the threat
for localized flash flooding will continue to remain. These PWATS
combined with antecedent conditions of heavy rainfall over the
last few days will only lead to a continued flash flood threat
regardless of storm motions. Fortunately, the stationary
boundary that has lead to backbuilding storms today should lift
north through the area today as a warm front as this upper level
trough makes its approach to the region. Storms are expected to
develop along this boundary and the Blue Ridge and push east
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. This has given
enough confidence to issue another Flood Watch for portions of
NW North Carolina and South Central Virginia where storms are
forecast to develop and train east along this lifting warm
front. These storms will have the potential to drop quick
amounts of rainfall with rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour
possible given the favorable environment.

While chances of showers and thunderstorms remain elevated,
temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 80s east
of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Severe weather possible with a passing cold front Thursday
2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period.

An upper level ridge over the southeast coast will expand northward
Wednesday reducing the coverage of storms over the area. Storms will
be diurnal/orographically driven rather than shortwave/disturbance
driven. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to start across the
mountains late in the afternoon, then drift east of the Blue Ridge
in the evening. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the
upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 80s to lower
90s east.

A strong disturbance will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Thursday, sending a cold front over the area in the afternoon and
evening. Surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s
along and east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate deep-layer shear and
steep low-level lapse rates should support strong to severe storms
with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.

High pressure will follow the front on Friday, giving the forecast
area the first rain-free day in over a week. High temperatures will
run in the upper 70s to upper 80s, while dewpoints will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Point:

 - Excessive Heat headline likely Sunday through Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will move over the region this weekend. Hot and
humid conditions will prevail into early next week. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
mountains and mid to upper 90s in the foothills and piedmont.
Apparent temperatures could exceed 100F east of the Blue Ridge each
afternoon. Excessive heat headline are likely Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are being observed this morning at
all terminals. These conditions look to continue at all
terminals for the next couple of hours. These restrictions do
look to lift by the mid morning hours as the frontal boundary
that is currently over the area slowly starts lifting north
through the area this morning, and daytime heating mixes out
the aforementioned low stratus and fog.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look likely again
on Today, which may bring back brief MVFR to LIFR restrictions
to terminals during the afternoon and evening. These showers and
thunderstorms should predominantly end by the 03 UTC timeframe
with the exception of BLF and LWB. MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS
look to return to BLF and LWB early Wednesday morning; however,
confidence is moderate at this time. These restrictions were
added nonetheless given the moist environment over the region.

Winds will predominantly remain out of the southwest at around 5
knots or less through the TAF period with gusts up to 10 to 15 knots
at times during the afternoon hours today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An unsettled weather pattern remains in place through Thursday,
with afternoon and evening storm chances each day bringing sub-
VFR conditions when over any terminal. Low clouds and fog
possible overnight each night. A cold front will usher in drier
air for Friday with VFR likely into Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>045.
NC...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for NCZ001>005-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/PM