Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
568 FXUS61 KRNK 301035 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 635 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and an eastern Conus trough will keep us below normal on temperatures through the weekend, though moisture will start increasing as the flow turns to the east. A front looks to approach the middle to end of next week increasing our chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) Partly sunny with fair weather clouds this afternoon. Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes region today will slowly push east into Pennsylvania by tonight. The upper level trough that pushed through Friday looks to remain quasi- stationary across the Northeast today; however, an embedded shortwave is expected to push out of the Ohio valley today and round the base of the much larger scale trough over the eastern Conus. This will lead to some cloudiness throughout the day as it provided some mid-level forcing for ascent across the region. Overall, weather will remain predominantly precipitation free across the region, with the exception of NW North Carolina where a few isolated showers may develop in the afternoon. Regardless, dry conditions look to continue, with highs remaining below normal across the region. Highs will generally range from the low to mid 70s west of the Blue Ridge to upper 70s to low 80s east of the Blue Ridge today. Lows will again dip down into the low to mid 50s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 50s east of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... Key Points: 1. Slightly older than normal temperatures. 2. Showers and few storms expected across the mountains Sunday. 3. Coverage of showers shifts south Monday. An area of weak high pressure will wedge south across the region Sunday. With an easterly flow, a mid-level Theta-E ridge and a trough overhead, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the mountains Sunday afternoon and evening. High temperatures Sunday will run around 8F colder than normal, ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s west of the Blue Ridge to mid to upper 70s east. The parent high of the wedge sinks a little southward Monday, which should limit showers to the North Carolina High Country Monday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be a tad warmer, running about 5F colder than normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Key Points: 1. Strong storm possible across the Piedmont Wednesday evening. 2. Showers likely with the passing of a cold front Thursday. A shortwave will track across the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday. As the wedge erodes, showers are possible across the mountains late in the day Tuesday. A stronger shortwave intensifies over Georgia/South Carolina on Wednesday. This wave will move north across the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont Wednesday evening and could bring strong thunderstorms to areas along and east of the Danville Expressway. The rest of the area should see scattered light showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will bring storms to the region Thursday into Friday morning. High pressure will follow the frontal passage Friday night into next weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures expected through the period. The only exception will be before the frontal passage on Thursday, when temperatures could approach normal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Saturday.... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with light easterly to northeasterly winds at around 5 knots or less developing at LYH, ROA, and BCB today. LWB and BLF are expected to maintain light northwesterly winds at around 5 knots or less today. Some reduced VSBYs and MVFR restrictions can`t be ruled out towards sunrise today at LWB. Wedging conditions look to develop towards the end of the TAF period overnight Sunday, which may lead to some MVFR restrictions developing towards the 06-09z timeframe Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is high, but lower for fog at KLWB, and restrictions developing Sunday morning. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should continue into next week, though some wedging of high pressure may bring enough moisture for a few showers/storms to the mountains late in the weekend into next week with potential sub-VFR cigs. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...BMG/EB