559
FXUS61 KRNK 021311
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
911 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend will be cooler but still foggy and rainy at times.
High pressure strengthening from the northeast will bring
somewhat drier weather. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible in the afternoons and evenings through Tuesday.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms return beginning mid
week. Temperatures will be about 7 to 10 degrees below normal
through Friday.

&&

.UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM EDT Saturday...

Forecast is currently on track and minor adjustments were made to
account for latest model guidance on precipitation chances and
recent temperature observations. Some residual fog and drizzle have
been observed this morning as wedging continues into the mountains.
It will be noticeably less humid today, but sky conditions will
still be partly to mostly cloudy for the region. Best chance of
precipitation today (20-30%) will be in the Mountain Empire of VA
and the Northwest Mountains of NC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Drizzly and foggy this morning.

2) Cooler but still cloudy and humid today, with isolated
showers mainly to the SW.

This morning, GOES nighttime microphysics channel satellite
imagery shows a large area of stratus and fog over the
forecast area. At the surface, high pressure was wedging in from
the NE, with the main front now well to the south. The Mid
Atlantic is now in zonal flow aloft, with stronger troughing to
the northeast. So far this summertime front has yet to bring a
big change in air mass, with last night`s KRNK sounding at 1.63
inches for PWAT, and completely saturated up through 10 kft.
Easterly flow at the surface around the high pressure continued
to transport moisture in from the Atlantic. This is more of a
wintertime isentropic pattern with specific humidities around
8-12 g/kg riding over the warmer air at the surface in the
wedge.

Still, drier air is slowly filtering in, and dew points are
progged to begin to drop into the 50s and 60s beginning
overnight tonight. Today will be foggy/drizzly this morning,
with plenty of clouds and a few isolated showers during the day
and evening. Easterly flow may be a bit gusty. Most of the
convergence/showers will be over the southern Blue Ridge of
extreme SW VA and NW NC, as the easterly flow interacts with the
terrain.

It will certainly be cooler if still humid, with highs in the
upper 60s/low 70s for the mountains, and the mid to upper 70s
for the piedmont.

Tonight, as mentioned drier air begins to work in from the NE,
but isolated showers and stratus linger SW of a Bluefield to
Winston- Salem line. Elsewhere where we see some partly cloudy
to clear skies, expect fog. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s to low 60s areawide Sunday morning.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) A high pressure wedge will keep cool and cloudy conditions in
place during the period.

2) Isolated showers/storms remain possible each day west of
I-77.

A high pressure system over the Northeastern US will continue to
wedge into our area east of the Appalachians on Sunday. This
will keep cool and cloudy conditions in place through the entire
period. Drier air aloft will keep most areas dry, though areas
west of I-77 in NC/VA will continue to see rain chances each
afternoon, thanks to an inverted trough from a low pressure
system along the Gulf Coast and light easterly upslope flow.
Monday looks to be the driest day across the entire CWA, as the
trough weakens and drier air aloft suppresses most convection. A
few isolated showers/storms remain possible in the same areas
as Sunday, but PoPs go down to around 10- 20% as the surface
wedge holds firm.

An upper ridge strengthens in the western Atlantic on Tuesday,
with clockwise flow allowing southerly flow aloft and moisture
to return to the area. This will once again increase rain
chances, with the highest PoPs west of I-77. The high pressure
in the Northeast weakens, allowing more coverage of showers into
the rest of the area, but coverage remains scattered at best
for the northern Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont.

With an almost stratiform type setup of rain, QPF totals remain
light for the period. Less than 0.10" is expected in the
Piedmont and north of US-460, with the northern most areas
likely seeing no rainfall. In the NC/VA mountains, up to 0.50"
is expected, with locally higher amounts possible in the
heaviest convection.

Due to the wedge remaining in place through the period,
temperatures remain 5-10 degrees below normal. Highs will
generally be in the 70s area-wide, though the mountains will
struggle to reach 70 on Sunday. By Tuesday, low 80s return to
the eastern Piedmont. Overnight lows remain mainly in the 50s,
with low 60s in the Piedmont. A few mountain peaks may briefly
fall into the upper 40s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Storm chances return midweek, and linger into the late week.

2) Below-average temperatures persist through the period, though
a slow return to normal is expected by next weekend.

As the high pressure weakens in the Northeast, another high near
Hudson Bay in Canada will move southeast and take over the
synoptic flow. The high will be slightly further north, but be
stronger than the high from earlier in the week, which will
continue the wedging across the Mid-Atlantic, though weaker. At
the same time, a mid- level southerly flow of moisture will
continue to drive north into our area, particularly for the
western half of the CWA. This keeps daily showers and storms in
the forecast through the rest of the week, despite the stalled
frontal boundary remaining well to our south near Florida. On
Friday, the high pressure moves east, with the wedge fully
retreating out of the area, as a more typical summer- like
pattern returns for next weekend.

Temperatures continue to be below normal for the midweek, as the
wedging pattern persists. Highs remain in the 70s to low 80s,
before a slight warmup to around normal occurs on Friday, with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows slowly rise through the
period, with Wednesday morning having lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s, before widespread 60s expected by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure wedging in from the NE was keeping drizzle, fog,
and stratus in the terminals this morning. Expect messy LIFR
to MVFR conditions through 13-15Z. A few showers develop this
afternoon and evening over the southern Blue Ridge, but chances
are not high enough to include in any TAFs. Easterly winds will
be slightly gusty 10-15 kts at times. Drier air filters in
overnight and expect some clearing at area terminals, but
morning fog is possible Sunday before VFR sets in.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in the
afternoons and evenings through Tuesday bringing temporary MVFR
conditions at times, as will morning fog in the mountains. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms return beginning mid week.

Winds will be light ENE for the weekend through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...CG/SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH