141
FXUS61 KRNK 311059
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
659 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast and Aviation Discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Complicated forecast for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Complicated forecast for next week.

Forecast for Halloween and this weekend is pretty
straightforward. Mid to upper level clouds are going to expand
in coverage in the region and temperatures will be closer to
seasonal norms. High temperatures for the next few days will be
in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows in the upper 30s to
mid-40s.

After Monday, however, the forecast becomes a headache. A mid-level
low over the Pacific Northwest is expected to split in two with a
northern and southern piece. The southern piece is expected to
increase in size and strength as it passes through the Rocky
Mountains, consuming a weakening wave further to its south. The
northern component is also forecast to move eastward along the
Canadian-American border. Both of these synoptic scale features are
likely to be over the Great Plains by around Tuesday. At this point,
model guidance enters serious disagreement on timing and impacts to
our area. Two (maybe even three) meridional aligned lows may
end up forming across the plains and how they interact with one
another will determine its affects on the Mid-Atlantic. The
proposed scenarios are diverse as models suggest one stronger
low overpowering its neighbor and redirecting its path and
energy around it. These lows are still projected to continue
eastward which suggests a chance of rain for the area, but it is
far too early and unclear to know how much rain and for how
long. Surface low pressure systems associated with this mid-
level pattern could also send warm and cold fronts through
towards the end of next week but the temperature forecast also
remains uncertain until there can be a better model consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The
only change in weather will be an increase in mid and upper
clouds later today and overnight. Too dry at the surface for
any fog this morning. Light winds from the northeast as a
surface high begins extending southward east of the Appalachians.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will likely continue into early next week with quiet
weather and continual cloudy skies. A frontal system looks to
approach around the middle of next week and offer some gusty winds
and a chance of rain. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the
timing of this system but it`s possible a warm front will increase
southeasterly winds along the Appalachian Mountains. A cold
front may follow through by the end of the work week and may
shift the wind direction (though weaker) from the northwest. The
passage of these fronts may give us a few days of shower
activity and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...BMG/CG