Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
402 FXUS61 KRNK 242345 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 745 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated. No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several chances for rain this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Several chances for rain this weekend into next week. Early this evening, waves of patchy light rain and drizzle continue to cross the region. Through the overnight, additional short wave energy will keep the rain going. On Saturday, another short wave pushes through and will bring scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm mainly to points along and east of the Blue Ridge. To the west, drier air will be slowly filtering in and will limit rainfall. On Sunday and Monday, convection looks limited again with drier air in place, so most folks should see a break. NW flow aloft brings another round of energy through late Monday night into Tuesday, with a strong cold front moving through sometime late Tuesday into early Wednesday. After that, we should get another break from daily rain chances for at least a couple days. We are outlooked for both a 15% chance of severe weather from SPC on Day 5 (Tuesday), as well as a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from WPC with the cold frontal passage. UCAR`s medium range convective model is also highlighting Tuesday for a severe weather threat, which would consist of damaging winds and heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding. We should see a gradual warm up over the weekend. Temperatures reach the low 80s for most mountain locations by Monday, and mid to upper 80s for the Piedmont and Roanoke regions. Even a few low 90s are possible early next week in gusty WSW surface flow for Roanoke and the Piedmont areas. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A generally light NE through E low level flow pattern continues across the region. Additionally, this is helping to maintain an upslope trajectory of moisture, yielding a range ceilings height (IFR through low end VFR) and patchy light rain, drizzle and some patchy fog. Visibilities currently at most locations are still VFR. As the night progresses, we expect more of the same, except there will be downward trend in both ceiling heights and visibilities. Most locations will experience both IFR ceilings and visibilities by the early morning hours of Saturday. Visibilities are expected to improve to VFR for most locations by mid-morning. Ceilings will stay IFR east of the crest of the Blue Ridge through the day the mid-afternoon, before improving to MVFR/VFR by the early evening. A scattering of clouds yielding only layers of clouds is expected over the mountains. Fog and drizzle are likely tomorrow morning once again, with more scatters showers and perhaps an isolated storm, mainly east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon through early evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sunday and Monday look mostly dry, with light WNW winds with the occasional gust to 15 kts. Monday night into Tuesday, an upper system and a cold front cross the area, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and sub-VFR conditions. Tuesday has the highest potential for strong thunderstorms. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each night/early morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/SH AVIATION...DS/SH