Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
304 FXUS61 KRNK 110013 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 813 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A low pressure system will track along the Atlantic coastline bringing a chance of showers to the area by late Saturday, continuing through early Monday. Drier weather returns by Tuesday and conditions remain dry through the middle of next week, with temperatures warming to slightly above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Variable cloudiness overnight with cool temperatures. 2. Thickening clouds Saturday, rain arrives Saturday night. The region remains under the influence of a strong high pressure system centered over the northeast US, situated between a low pressure system along a stationary front over the southeast, and an upper trough digging into the north central Plains, with an associated low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The low to the southeast is progged to track northward tonight and Saturday, bringing widespread rainfall to the eastern Carolinas and Virginia, reaching the easternmost counties of the local forecast area by late Saturday. Low level strato-cu has been fairly persistent along and east of the Appalachian Divide with variable breaks in the low level clouds only to reveal a higher cloud layer off to the east. Moisture will continue to advect into the area from the southeast so cloud layers likely to persist across the eastern part of the CWA. For the western CWA where some clearing exists, expect good radiational cooling overnight with potential for river valley fog, so favoring the Greenbrier River and maybe some of the New River valley. With the dry air, thinking fog will have a hard time developing in locations where there is too much cloud cover for decent radiational cooling. Lows tonight should not be as cool per the cloud cover with readings dipping into the 40s in the west and low 50s in the east. Tomorrow looks to be warmer, but a similar scenario may play out if there are not enough breaks in the clouds for stronger daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Coastal low to bring a chance of precipitation for central Virginia. 2) Warming trend begins next week. A coastal low is still projected to move north along the coastline and bring a chance of precipitation for areas east of the Blue Ridge. Precipitation may begin as early as Saturday night and continue until Monday night as the storm system moves north and eventually into the Atlantic by mid-next week. Current model guidance places central Virginia as the most likely to receive rainfall, but generally speaking, the more east you are, the more likely you are to receive rain. The highest rainfall expected is currently estimated to be around 0.50-0.75". There will be an increase in wind speeds as the coastal low moves to our east. Winds will transition from northeasterly to northerly and gust between 20-25 mph east of the Blue Ridge due to the coastal low`s pressure gradient. Winds at 850mb will gust between 25-30 mph, and may affect the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge. These gusts, however, are heavily dependent on how the angle the winds blow relative to the ridge line so this will be monitored for any edits. Upper level ridging centered above Texas will build up and spread over most of the United States to bring a warming trend. This will be felt in the Mid-Atlantic by week as 500mb heights climb and temperatures rise. Temperatures will not necessarily be "hot" but warmer than normal with highs rising towards the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: 1) Warming trend continues next week until possible cold front arrives. The coastal low may meander a bit in the Atlantic before deciding to either head further east or hit the mainland more northeast of us, but it is currently not expected to affect our region for the Long Term Forecast. The 500 mb ridge continues to be centered above Texas as a crude looking omega block with two upper level lows to its northwest and northeast. This ridge weakens a little and its axis moves eastward to be positioned meridionally from the Great Lakes to the Deep South. Persistent high 500mb heights will continue to support above normal temperatures in the region with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Model guidance signals a cold front arriving in the latter half of next week, which could take temperatures down just a little. It is too early to know for certain if this cold front will bring in a chance of precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Friday... In general, expecting a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area overnight with mix of low and high cloud layers. Exception... Much lower clouds seem to be hugging the ridgetops near the Blue Ridge Parkway, SW of BCB and HLX due to the enhanced low level southeast upslope wind flow. Can`t rule out some IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys with partial ridge obscurations in NW NC and into far western VA vcnty of KMKJ, now through 14Z Saturday. Another exception...river fog may develop along the New and Greenbrier Rivers vcnty of KBCB and KLWB. Some models suggest a layer of stratus as opposed to fog. If this occurs, then instead of a vsby restriction, Cigs between 1000-2000 feet will develop. Winds are expected to remain from an easterly direction through Saturday, favoring a more northerly direction over the piedmont. Speeds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range...gusty Saturday afternoon over the piedmont. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain is expected for much of the area Saturday night through Sunday, with the greatest chances east of the Blue Ridge, which will bring sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, as a low pressure system moves along the coast, and gusty winds are possible for the weekend and into Monday. Drier weather returns for the start of the next work week, lasting through most of the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AS/SH NEAR TERM...AS/PM SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PM