824
FXUS61 KRNK 161848
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Scattered cumulus over the mountains with clear skies east of
the Blue Ridge. All areas expected to be clear overnight with
exception of late night river valley fog within the mountain
valleys. Forecast remains on track for Thursday and beyond with
return of heat and humidity leading to scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Opportunity for scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms
beginning Thursday and continuing through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Opportunity for scattered afternoon/evening
showers/storms beginning Thursday and continuing through early
next week.

Expect development of river valley fog in the mountain valleys
again tonight otherwise remaining mostly clear and dry until
return of deeper moisture Thursday afternoon.

The upper ridge of high pressure over the TN valley is forecast
to weaken and retrograde farther west and become centered over
the Ark-La-Tex by the weekend. This will allow a front over the
Great Lakes to sag south over the Mid-Atlantic with increasing
moisture leading to a daily chance for showers and a few storms
beginning Thursday and persisting through early next week.
Overall, severe threat remains low given lack of shear to
support organized deep convection.

Warmest temperatures will occur Thursday and Friday, featuring
widespread upper 80s to mid 90s. Will see temperatures lower
somewhat again over the weekend and early next week as the
ridging shifts west, but will still be above normal for mid
September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies expected through tonight. Low stratus and
areas of fog is expected to develop within the mountain valleys
again tonight with potential impacts to BCB,LWB,BLF,GEV,and TNB
between 06Z-14Z. Should begin to see this fog dissipate by
14Z/10AM. After 14Z/10AM increasing moisture will lead to cloud
buildups by early afternoon Thursday with development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still too early to place
within the TAFs, but models suggest development to take place
along the higher mountain terrain then move southeast during
the mid and late afternoon Thursday.

Winds through the TAF period are expected to be less than
10kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances Thu-Mon especially over the
mountains, but activity is not expected to be organized and
mainly coinciding with the heating of the day.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM