840
FXUS61 KRNK 271729
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
129 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Kept fire weather section to focus on potential burn windows
today and again Thursday and Friday.

Blended in much cooler temperatures for tomorrow. Most hi-res
and hi-res ensemble data show a low level cloud deck persisting
much of the day tomorrow. This should keep temperatures from
reaching NBM forecast highs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The
first day of November is the next opportunity for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and seasonable weather continues through the
week. The first day of November is the next opportunity for
rain.

Dry weather weather looks to continue through the end of the
month across the region as high pressure remains anchored
across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. A shortwave trough
looks to flatten the anchored high pressure over the Northeast
tomorrow, and push it off the coast of Massachusetts. As this
occurs, a long easterly fetch off the Atlantic through the low
levels is likely to lead to a low level cloud deck developing
over the region early Wednesday morning. Above this low level
cloud deck, upper level cirrus is also expected to envelope the
region from the west thanks to convective blow off from the
aforementioned shortwave trough. All of this extra cloud cover
will likely keep temperatures several degrees cooler across the
region compared to NBM forecasted highs with wedge conditions
preventing this cloud deck from eroding until the afternoon
hours. HREF guidance in addition to other hi-res guidance keeps
temperatures several degrees cooler tomorrow compared to NBM, so
have blended in these values for tomorrows temperatures.

Overall, as the aforementioned high pressure is replaced by an
additional high pressure sliding into the Ohio valley Thursday
into Friday, temperatures should rebound each day with cloud
cover lessening areawide. In addition to clear skies, 500mb
heights look to increase through the end of the week as upper
level ridging builds across the southeast. This may bring a few
locations near 80 degrees on Friday.

As for the next chance of rain. Models have been consistent with
advertisement of a southern stream short wave to cross the
country over the weekend, bringing moisture into the area
beginning Sunday November 1st. Some rain may sneak in here late
Halloween night, but all models still insist on dry conditions
for the Trick-or-Treat crowd Saturday evening.

Strength of the initial wave Sunday appears weak, but models do
indicate southeast upslope flow which should enhance the rain
chance along the Blue Ridge. A series of disturbances are
forecast to follow during the week, so it looks promising for
additional rainfall, and this should help snuff the late
October dry spell.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the remainder
of today with a light east wind and clear skies. Cirrus should
spread eastward across the Appalachian Mountains tonight, which
should prevent any fog development. Meanwhile, moisture from the
Atlantic Ocean amidst the easterly flow will bring some MVFR stratus
towards the Piedmont. This stratus will become most prevalent at
BCB, DAN, LYH, and ROA by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings should
gradually lift during the day, but it may take until Wednesday
afternoon before conditions return to VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions throughout the rest of this
week. The lone exception will be any patchy river valley fog in the
mountains during the early morning hours. Winds should turn towards
the northwest on Thursday before swinging back around to the east by
Saturday. Clouds will decrease during Thursday but later increase
from the west by Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system
approaches the Mississippi River Valley. This low pressure system
could bring the next chance of rain and sub-VFR conditions on
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with near to
above normal temperatures.  The next appreciable chance
for rainfall looks to be Sunday with additional opportunities
for rain during the first week of November.

With respect to the next few days, looking at a day of full sun
today, with mostly cloudy conditions Wednesday. Thursday and Friday
appear to be mostly clear with Friday being the warmest with
highs 10 degrees above normal.

Transport winds will be from an easterly direction today and Wednesday,
then switch around to the west Thursday and Friday.

Pending wind direction, today, Thursday and Friday should be good
burn days, with Friday being the best per the well above normal
temperature forecast. Clouds will interfere Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/PM
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...PM