492
FXUS61 KRNK 172322
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
722 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather continues into Saturday before a frontal system
arrives Sunday to bring a chance of precipitation. Winds will
pick up before and after the front moves through. Additional
cold fronts are possible next week and may bring more precipitation
for the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message: The transition into the weekend will be marked by
a subtle but significant warming trend, courtesy of an incoming
warm front.

A weak warm front will pass over the region tonight and into
Saturday morning. This front will be largely a dry feature,
bringing high clouds that will sweep across the area, but no
rain is expected. These clouds will continue to move north
through the morning, gradually giving way to partly sunny skies
in the afternoon.

The winds, currently light and variable, will shift to a
southerly direction through the day on Saturday. This change
will pump warmer air into the region, causing temperatures to
climb into the 70s for the afternoon high. Along with the
warmth, moisture levels will increase noticeably; dew points
will jump from the 30s seen today to the more humid 50s behind
the passing warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Showers increase across the area Sunday with the best
coverage in the west. 2. Showers end Sunday night with drier
weather expected for Monday and Monday night. 3. Winds will
become gusty ahead of the front Sunday, and remain gusty also
behind the front into Monday morning.

A look at the 17 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday night, the axis of a shortwave ridge
will progress east of the region as a trough moves through
central CONUS. For Sunday/Sunday night, this same trough trends
negatively tilted with its axis crossing our region around the
early evening hours. Shortwave ridging a cross the Central
Plains follows this trough. For Monday/Monday night, the trough
exits to the northeast while a shortwave ridging builds into the
region. Another quick moving trough is expected to move through
the Northern Plains states also during this time.

At the surface for Saturday night a north-south oriented ridge
of high pressure will be centered just of the east coast. Low
pressure is expected to cross James Bay with an associated cold
front extending south into the western Great Lakes and mid-
Mississippi River Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, the cold
front is expected to cross our region during roughly the
afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will build behind the
front along the Mississippi Valley. Low pressure will be over
southern Alberta with a cold front heading into MT. For
Monday/Monday night, low pressure heads east near the
US/Canadian border, reaching the far western Great Lakes by the
evening hours. Its associated cold front will extend into the
mid-Mississippi River Valley.

A look at the 17 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures falling Saturday night into
Sunday, reaching +6C to +9C, nw-se across the area by early
Sunday evening. For Monday, values increase to +8C to +10C, n-s
across the area.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. As
high pressure shifts east and a cold front approaches from the
west, we should see increasing cloud cover from west to east
overnight Saturday night. Some isolated showers may work their
way into far western sections by daybreak Sunday. During Sunday,
Showers expand in coverage from west to east as the day
progresses. Little activity in expected east of the crest of the
Blue Ridge until the afternoon hours. Behind the front, Sunday
night, showers will quickly end from west to east with perhaps
some northwest flow showers across parts of southeast West
Virginia to conclude the night. Isolated storms cannot be ruled
out, especially for western sections Sunday afternoon and and
southeast sections Sunday evening. Winds will start to trend
gusty during the day in advance of the front from the southwest
on Sunday. Post cold front, they will remain gusty from the
northwest through at least Monday morning, with decreasing
speeds during the day. High pressure and dry weather return
Monday into Monday night. Temperatures will trend colder through
the period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Near or above normal temperatures. 2. Dry conditions for
most of the region. 3. Isolated showers possible for southeast
West Virginia on Tuesday and then again Thursday night into
Friday.

A look a the 17 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night, a shortwave trough
moves across our region from the Great Lakes region. Broad
ridging is expected across central CONUS. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, ensemble averaging depicts nearly
zonal flow across our region. However, there are hints at a
shortwave trough within this flow over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. A deeper trough develops over the Gulf of Alaska
with ridging over western CONUS. For Thursday/Thursday night,
the Upper Mississippi River Valley shortwave is projected to
deepen and amplify into a more robust trough that our region.
Ridging amplifies across central CONUS. For Friday, the upper
trough crosses our region with its axis over eastern VA/NC by
the early evening.

At the surface for Tuesday/Tuesday night, a cold front is
expected to cross the region during the day Tuesday. High
pressure will be centered across the Lower Ohio Valley. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the center of the high will move
east, centered over the Tennessee Valley. On Thursday/Thursday
night, high pressure shifts to over the SE US. On Friday, high
pressure remains across much of the mid-Atlantic and SE US.

A look at the 17 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures area expected to range from +7C to
+10C, nw- se by the late afternoon on Tuesday. For Wednesday,
values dip to +3C to +5C, n-s. On Thursday, values increase to
+6C to +8C, n-s. Finally for Friday, values of +6C to +7C are
expected.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. A
cold front will cross the region on Tuesday, but at this time
only some isolated showers for parts of southeast West Virginia
are forecast. From Wednesday into Friday, high pressure will
provide for mainly dry conditions for the region. We may have to
watch a weak disturbance in the northern stream which could
clip parts of southeast West Virginia with isolated showers on
Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions for all terminals for the next 24 hours thanks
to a benign weather pattern. Only notable change in weather will
be more upper level cloud cover overnight and into Saturday
morning before clearing again. Winds will also vary and be light
before becoming more southerly/southwesterly by Saturday
afternoon.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal system will bring a chance of precipitation on Sunday
and strong wind gusts and wind shear may bring unfavorable
flying conditions. Once the front passes, there will be a brief
reprieve in weather before another front moves through mid-next
week to provide another chance of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS