Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
819 FXUS61 KRNK 272328 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 728 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. A frontal boundary may bring a few showers late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: 1) Cool and dry weather continues today. Quiet weather remains on tap for the remainder of this evening and overnight, with the exception being patchy fog in the river valleys for a few hours tomorrow morning. Observer in Burkes Garden reported a low of 36 degrees this morning, and a record low temperature was also reported at Lynchburg, VA this morning, of 48 degrees. May see temperatures a few degrees warmer than those observations from this morning, due to a passing layer of clouds during the overnight hours, which could limit radiational cooling a bit, but temperatures will still cool into the 40s in the west and 50s to the east. Previous discussion below... As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday... You can expect cooler than normal temperatures to persist with high pressure in control. A decent shortwave passes through tonight and could bring a layer of clouds which should temper the radiational cooling but enough periods of clear skies this evening and then again toward dawn to have lows in the 40s once again the mountains to lower 50s east. Should be a mostly sunny Thursday with winds remaining light with high pressure overhead. Highs will run around 5 degrees blow normal with lower to mid 70s mountains to upper 70s to around 80 east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Quiet weather continues through the period. 2) Below to near normal temperatures each day. Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic shifts offshore late Thursday, as a frontal boundary swings down from the Great Lakes Region into the area Friday. The presence of extremely dry air will keep rain chances at close to zero, even with the passing front and upper level trough. The front pushes through the area by Saturday morning, with high pressure again building in situated on the north side of us. Cooler than usual temperatures will remain in place into the weekend. As easterly flow from the high sets up, it will draw return moisture off the Atlantic. Easterly upslope with some additional moisture is just enough to introduce very small chances (<15%) off an isolated shower in the southern Appalachians. Temperatures remain cool but do rise ahead of the front on Friday. Highs will be in the 70s area-wide each day, but Friday will see the Piedmont break into the low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Rain chances for the NC/VA mountains Sunday, dry elsewhere. 2) Temperatures remain cool as high pressure wedges into the area. Little changes for the latter half of the weekend, as high pressure firmly sits in place over the Great Lakes Region. The center of the high shifts east into the Northeast, which will allow it to wedge down east of the Appalachian Mountains, keeping cloudy and cool conditions over the area. Easterly upslope flow will allow some showers and storms to form along/west of the Blue Ridge. The best chance of rain will be south of US-460. Sunday will be the best chance of rain during the forecast period, though rain chances continue for Monday and Tuesday, with PoPs dropping down to around 20% and 10%, respectively. The wedge holds in place through Tuesday, which will keep cooler temperatures, some clouds, and low rain chances in the area. Models have begun to hint at a coastal low developing early next week, but with little to no impact to our area as it moves up the East Coast and heads away from our area. Temperatures continue to remain below normal for this time of year, with highs in the 60s each day in the mountains, with 70s elsewhere, though with a wedge in place, these could trend lower. Overnight lows remain in the 50s. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday.... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with the exception being a few hours of patchy dense fog at KLWB, that will bring IFR or lower visibilities to the area. Some passing mid to high cloud cover overnight tonight, but otherwise mostly clear skies. Mid level cumulus will develop again Thursday afternoon, and start to diminish around sunset. Winds will turn more southwesterly Thursday afternoon east of the Blue Ridge, remaining mostly westerly west of the Blue Ridge for KBLF and KLWB. Might see a few gusts up to 15 knots, but otherwise winds will stay under 10 knots. Forecast confidence is high, but moderate for fog at KLWB. Due to equipment issues resulting in no observations during the overnight hours, AMD NOT SKED will be in the TAF for KLWB. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should continue for all terminals during the remainder of this week as high pressure stays in control. The only exceptions may be patchy fog during the early morning hours across the usual river valley locations such as KLWB. The next chance of rain may not come until Sunday across the southern Blue Ridge. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AS/WP SHORT TERM...JCB/VFJ LONG TERM...JCB/VFJ AVIATION...AS/WP