Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
780 FXUS61 KRNK 050556 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 156 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather expected today with weak high pressure building in. Another front arrives Saturday bringing with it another chance of rain and thunderstorms. High pressure and cooler air is expected to push into the region behind the front on Saturday night, which will last into early next week. An extended dry period looks to occur through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 135 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Mostly dry conditions today with the exception being isolated mountain showers over NW NC. Weak high pressure will build in today which should provide mostly dry conditions through tonight. A very subtle upper wave ahead of the next trough moving into the Plains could bring a few isolated afternoon showers to the mountains, mainly confined to the Carolina mountains. Outside of the mountains, dry and mostly sunny conditions expected with highs on the warmer side. Southwest flow should aid in afternoon temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region. Perhaps a few areas could reach 90F across the Piedmont. Mild lows tonight with increasing dew points. Should remain in the mid to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for scattered thunderstorms on Saturday, and a marginal risk of severe weather exists in the Piedmont. 2) Notably cooler and drier air should arrive during Sunday and Monday as high pressure arrives. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday. Showers should enter the Appalachian Mountains in the morning, but temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s will provide ample instability with CAPE rising above 1,000 J/kg by midday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms should develop, and a marginal risk of severe weather exists along and east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon with damaging winds as the primary threat. Any convection should move eastward and fade by Saturday night. The cold front will exit offshore on Sunday, and high pressure will arrive by Monday morning with low temperatures plummeting into the 40s and 50s. A cool and dry northeast flow should persist through Monday night due to high pressure wedging against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for dry weather with high pressure in control. 2) Temperatures will remain below normal but slowly moderate. With high pressure wedged against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, it will remain firmly in control to bring a cool northeast flow through the middle of the week. Moisture should remain suppressed along the East Coast. This overall pattern will keep the Appalachian Mountains dry with temperatures staying below normal. The air mass should gradually moderate towards the latter half of the week with temperatures rising closer to normal values. Some models indicate that this dry period could extend notably further beyond the scope of this forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Friday... Areas of fog this morning, dense at times through daybreak. Fog will clear by 13z/9AM giving way to VFR conditions throughout the remainder of today and through early tonight. Areas of fog could begin to develop again by the latter portions of the current 24 hour TAF period. Winds today generally out of the southwest, 10kts or less. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A second front will arrive on Saturday, producing another round of scattered showers/storms. Drier air arrives Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns to the region, resulting in mainly VFR conditions outside any late night fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG