Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
408 FXUS61 KRNK 130047 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 847 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering light showers will persist tonight due to a low pressure that heads to off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday, then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our weather for the late week into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Light rain and drizzle will continue into tonight before tapering off. 2) Patchy fog possible west of the Blue Ridge tonight. 3) Clearing skies tomorrow with breezy conditions. As the coastal low Nor`easter continues to churn off the Carolina coastlines, patchy light rain and drizzle continue to spin around the low and across our area this evening. Most of this will remain east of the Blue Ridge, with light accumulations of a few hundredths possible. Dry air will begin to infiltrate from the north, cutting off the light showers and drizzle overnight tonight. The eastern Piedmont may hold on to drizzle until early morning. Winds remain elevated thanks to the coastal low, with northerly winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25+ mph across the Piedmont with lighter values to the west. This persists tonight but slowly lowers through the day tomorrow with gusts under 20 mph. Overcast skies tonight will begin to break up from west to east as the dry air moves in. Clearing skies tomorrow will allow for temperatures to rebound into the upper 60s for the mountains and low 70s along/east of the Blue Ridge. Overnight lows will be in the 40s for the mountains where skies clear, and 50s for the Piedmont with higher cloud cover. West of the Blue Ridge, patchy fog could form in the valleys as winds become light. Overall the previous forecast remains on track. Previous forecast discussion... As of 140 PM EDT Sunday... Low pressure off the NC coast will start to work into the mid- Atlantic coast tonight. Surface gradient to stay tighter in the Piedmont resulting in gusty winds into tonight. Drier air works in later tonight with the low moving away. Wind speeds look to be light across the mountains later tonight so fog appears a good bet, but to what extent, will have to wait and see. Cloud cover decreases Monday with sunshine bringing milder highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Mild and quiet weather expected this week. 2) A chance of frost Thursday morning in the deeper mountain valleys. Remnant gusty winds and precipitation may linger Monday night into Tuesday as the coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic begins to head to the east. A cold front is forecast to arrive sometime in the middle of the week, possibly as early as Tuesday night to bring higher pressure with drier and cooler air. It won`t be until Thursday morning when the change of temperatures will be noticeable so temperatures will likely continue to be above normal with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s until then. Low level cold air advection by the middle of the week will bring early morning temperatures into the mid-30s for elevated areas. There is a modest risk of frost early Thursday morning, especially in Greenbrier and Monroe counties. While skies are expected to be clear this week thanks to the higher surface pressure, winds will be a contributing factor on where frost can be expected. Winds and temperatures will continually be monitored for any change in frost potential. While relative humidity will be very high during the early mornings before the cold air arrives, model guidance suggests it will be too breezy to support widespread fog development outside of rivers or bodies of water at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Frost possible on Friday morning. 2) Stronger cold front to bring another chance of precipitation by next weekend. A surface high pressure system with its center over Canada will continue to move east and bring higher pressure over the Mid- Atlantic. A localized center of high pressure may be over our region Friday morning, allowing for calm winds and a greater chance of frost. This morning will also be the coldest of the week, with early morning temperatures in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Areas along and west of the Blue Ridge are more likely to have quiet winds and temperatures in the lower to mid-30s to support frost. As confidence grows in the forecast later this week, the need for any Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories will be considered. After Friday, all attention goes into a frontal system that is expected to pass through early next week. While specific timing is uncertain, model guidance is adamant of this front forming and going through our region. While this system may bring severe weather to parts of the United States, it is far too early to know of any impacts here. What is currently likely, however, is receiving precipitation for the whole region. Certainty on impacts of this storm system will be narrowed down as we approach the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Sunday... Sub-VFR conditions are widespread east of the Blue Ridge, and for BCB. BLF/LWB are bordering MVFR/VFR as cigs are slightly higher there. Cigs lower slightly tonight, with all terminals going down to and remaining in MVFR through early morning. DAN/LYH will likely bounce between IFR/MVFR later tonight as cigs stay near 1000ft. Winds are also expected to remain elevated, with northerly winds of around 10-15 knots, gusting to around 20-25 knots through the night, particularly for ROA/LYH/DAN. Winds do lighten across BCB/BLF/LWB, and clearing skies could allow some patchy fog to form after 09z, particularly at LWB, where VSBY could fall under 1 mile. This is dependent on if and how quickly skies clear. Any fog clears out by 14z, and clouds do begin to break up on Monday, with all terminals returning to VFR, though cigs will remain between 3000-5000 feet for much of the day. By late afternoon, around 20z, the coastal low shifts east and heads out to sea, which allows cigs to finally raise with widespread VFR conditions at all terminals through the end of the period. Confidence in the above forecast is moderate. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Aviation pattern looks favorable through Friday, outside of any fog at valley airports like LWB in the late night/early morning time frame. High pressure will build into the area and persist through the week. A northerly wind will be elevated Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts of near 20 knots possible at times. Winds reduce for the late week with quiet weather lasting into the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP NEAR TERM...JCB/WP SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...JCB/WP