520
FXUS61 KRNK 151739
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
139 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Sunday with less humidity.
Unseasonably warm temperatures return next week. The chance of
precipitation will be limited for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

   - Expect lower humidity today but above seasonal warmth into
     Sunday. An isolated storm possible Sunday in NC mountains.

North surface flow sends dewpoints into the 40s/50s this
afternoon. Sunshine should be plentiful and will see
temperatures rise into the 80s. Highs will run about 5 degrees
above normal. Do not see chance of precip though surface
analysis still depicts lingering theta-e ridge across the
southern Appalachians, so if anything pops up should be south of
Boone, NC. Expect a few cumulus clouds across the south as well
where moisture lingers longer there.

The wind turns to the east and southeast tonight. Models are
hinting at some return moisture as this occurs with
stratus/stratocu developing across the eastern slopes of the
Blue Ridge. Will lean toward a blend of the NAM and NBM on this,
which will lead to mostly cloudy skies at times into Sunday
morning south of Roanoke to Boone. Temperatures tonight close to
normal with mid 50s in the mountain valleys, and upper 50s to
lower 60s elsewhere. Fog appears limited.

Sunday, southeast flow should bring dewpoints up some and
increasing moisture with clouds and some orographic impacts
could turn out a few storms across the higher terrain of NC into
far SW VA. Temperatures should be seasonably warm running from
the upper 70s to mid 80s west to mid 80s to around 90 east. Some
of the upper TN Valley areas could also approach 90 Sunday
afternoon, as the 8h temps increase more here.

Forecast confidence is above average on temps/winds, but average
on sky cover and pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend to take place during early
next week.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists during Monday
afternoon in the mountains.

Any lingering convection from earlier on Sunday along the southern
Blue Ridge should fade before midnight. Surface high pressure will
head off the New England coast on Sunday night. Dewpoints should
increase by Monday from a southerly flow, and the increasing heat
and humidity combined with orographical lift will spark a chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. These showers and
thunderstorms should stay mostly along and west of the Blue Ridge,
and the convection will diminish after sunset.

Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the Mid Atlantic
during this forecast period, which should spark a notable warming
trend. The ridge should meander northward on Tuesday and continue to
build with 500 mb heights climbing above 597 dam along the East
Coast from Delaware to Massachusetts, which is anomalously high for
this portion of the country at this time of year. With rain chances
diminishing on Tuesday due to suppression from the ridge aloft, it
will start to turn hotter and drier by the middle of the week.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the first heat wave of this summer to
build across the Mid Atlantic.

2) The next chance of showers and thunderstorms may not arrive until
the weekend.

A strong upper level ridge with 500 mb heights approaching an
impressive 600 dam along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York
will dominate the weather pattern through the middle of the week.
The summer solstice will occur at 4:51 PM EDT on Thursday afternoon,
and it will certainly feel appropriate with the first heat wave
taking place. High temperatures will steadily climb to where 90s
will become commonplace across the Piedmont and some valley
locations west of the Blue Ridge by the end of the week. Heat
indices do not quite reach advisory criteria. However, it would be
prudent to start gathering extra sunscreen, finding ways to stay
cool with plenty of fluids, and making sure to take extra breaks if
planning any outdoor activities.

The models continue to struggle with determining when the upper
level ridge will weaken towards the end of the week. Until there is
a better signal of when this weakening actually occurs, chances of
showers and thunderstorms were kept out of the forecast through
Friday due to the expected suppression from the ridge aloft. A
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the
mountains by Saturday afternoon as a growing consensus of model
guidance suggests enough orographical lift with increasing heat and
humidity may be able to spark a little convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the TAF period. Although some MVFR sct/bkn
clouds may skirt BCB/BLF, possibly ROA Sunday morning but better
ceiling chances will be from HLX to GEV/TNB/UKF.

The wind turns from the northwest to the northeast this
afternoon then to the east and southeast tonight. Speed should
be at or below 10kts most of the time.

Above average confidence on vsby/winds, and average for
ceiling.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build back over the region for early next
week. Aside for some morning river fog in the mountain valleys,
conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be limited for much of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP