088
FXUS61 KRNK 031356
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
956 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United
States through Tuesday. Daily isolated showers and
thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. Wednesday
and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic region. A brief break in the
wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 950 AM EDT Monday...

Morning showers are fading away and should blossom again with
afternoon heating. There may be enough instabilities to
generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms by 2p, but none are
expecting to become severe. Afternoon storms will dissipate
this evening.


As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Warmer today and mostly dry. An isolated mountain
shower/storm possible.

High pressure continues to remain offshore and southwest flow
will continue to supply warm and humid conditions. Areas of fog
this morning and mostly cloudy skies. Fog dissipates around
sunrise.

Subtle ridging overhead today will keep showers and storms to a
minimum, but enough daytime heating should allow for a few
isolated showers and storms across the mountains.

Any storms will weaken by sunset with loss of daytime heating,
leaving only a few showers across the area tonight. Fog
development will be possible again tonight.

Temperatures warming with slight ridging, generally near to just
above normal with highs in the mid upper 70s for the mountains
and low 80s over the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, higher
chances and greater coverage on Wednesday.
2. Above normal temperatures through the period.

Tuesday will start off dry, with surface high pressure over the Mid
Atlantic, which will eventually shift offshore by later Tuesday.
Increasing moisture in the area and warmer temperatures will lead to
increasing chances for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and
evening. During the midweek, a surface low will track across
southern Canada, with its associated cold front crossing through the
central US. As the front tracks closer to the Mid Atlantic and the
central Appalachians by Wednesday, chances for and coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will increase. The front doesn`t look to
actually cross to the east of the area until Thursday, although
there is still some timing uncertainty with this frontal passage
given differing model solutions. Depending when the front finally
passes through the area, showers may continue through Thursday.

Temperatures will be on an increasing trend through the middle of
the week ahead of the front, given some ridging aloft ahead of the
upper level trough. Expecting temperatures to reach near to above
normal through this forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Chances of afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms continue,
mainly over the mountains.
2. Slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week and into the
weekend.

Flow aloft behind the passage cold front turns more northwesterly,
allowing for a drop in temperatures through the end of the work week
and into the weekend. The upper trough generally persists over
the eastern US, which will keep continued chances of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm for the western mountains through the
forecast period. That being said, the weekend does not look to be a
total wash out, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.

Temperatures over the weekend will be cooler than during the work
week, a few degrees below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Mix of VFR to LIFR across the area this morning. Valley fog has
developed and will continue to impact flight conditions at
select terminals for at least another hour or two. LWB
especially and areas across the Carolina Foothills and New River
Valley.

Should see improvements through the morning once fog dissipates.
Some MVFR may continue into the morning, but with gradual
lifting of cigs throughout the day. A few showers this
morning and these will continue into the afternoon.

Fog development is possible again tonight, especially for areas
that receive rain today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic
restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible,
especially in valley locations through Tuesday.

Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower)
on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front.

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/RCS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG