375
FXUS61 KRNK 180130
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
930 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #590 has been cancelled for our North
Carolina Counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Convection will remain possible overnight ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front.

2) Dry weather returns Tuesday, with the next rain chances
forecast Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Convection will remain possible overnight ahead of an eastward-
moving cold front.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms associated with this
afternoon`s convective complex have weakened and/or moved south
and east of our area. Because of this, I`ve gone ahead and
cancelled Severe Thunderstorm Watch #590 for our counties in
North Carolina.

We still could see some isolated showers or thunderstorms
through the rest of the night, though, as a cold front moves
east across the Mountain State and into our area. Even though I
can`t rule out some "rogue" showers or storms ahead of the front
(reference radar image at 9:30 p.m.), the overall convective
coverage should be limited to areas in vicinity of the front.
This is due to better forcing and slightly better moisture
convergence along the boundary. Timing of the front brings it
toward the Blue Ridge around 2 a.m. and pushes it south and east
of our our forecast area around 8 a.m. Tuesday. Give-or-take.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather returns Tuesday, with the next rain chances forecast
Thursday through Saturday.

Behind the passage of a cold front on Monday, drier air is expected
to advect into the region. This will lead to significantly reduced
shower and thunderstorm chances, with near zero chances forecast
Tuesday and Wednesday for the area. An upper level trough and
additional cold front pushes into the area late Thursday, which
looks to bring shower and thunderstorm chances back into the region.
Temperatures also look to return to seasonal values as this upper
level trough effectively returns the upper level ridge back west
into the western Conus by the end of next week. The aforementioned
frontal boundary does look to get hung up across the region through
Saturday, leading to scattered rain and thunderstorm chances daily
starting Thursday once again.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lowered CIGs/VSBYs will remain possible overnight IVOF ISOLD-
SCTD SHRA/TSRA ahead of an E-moving cold front. The greatest
coverage of convection will largely be in NC this evening (associated
with this afternoon`s convective complex). Additional SHRA may
be seen along the front overnight, primarily across SE WV
terminals, with some BR/low St. IFR-MVFR level restrictions will
be likely primarily W of the Blue Ridge.

Restrictions should lift by mid-morning Tuesday, with VFR flight
categories expected for much of the day. W winds should veer to
a more NW direction, with most speeds around 10 kts. with
occasional morning gusts.

OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night- Wednesday night: Possible late night CIG/VSBY
restrictions due to BR/low St. Otherwise, VFR expected.

Thursday-Saturday: Possibility of seeing SHRA/TSRA returns.
Restrictions possible IVOF convection, as well as overnight with
BR/low St.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms were pretty anemic across the (former)
Flood Watch area this afternoon. Based on this, and the
anticipated return to drier conditions over the next few days,
I`ve cancelled the Flood Watch.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/SH
AVIATION...DB
HYDROLOGY...DB