844
FXUS61 KRNK 100608
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A low
pressure system will track along the Atlantic coastline bringing
a chance of showers on Sunday. Drier weather returns by Monday
and conditions remain dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy frost possible in higher elevations this morning. Frost
Advisory in effect until 9 AM.

2) Cool today with increasing clouds in the southeast.

By this morning, an area of low pressure will cut off over the
Southeast from the larger trough over the upper Great Lakes.
Ridging was situated over TX into the northern Plains, with a
strong upper low rotating into the Pacific NW. The southern
Appalachians will be caught between the low pressure over the
Deep South and the compact low over the eastern Great Lakes. At
the surface however, high pressure over New England remains
wedged along the Appalachians.

PWATs on last night`s KRNK sounding were less than a quarter
inch, indicating very dry conditions. This has allowed for
deep radiational cooling this morning, with temperatures
dropping into the 30s in the mountains, and the 40s elsewhere. A
Frost Advisory remains in place for parts of the north until 9
AM. As low pressure spins up to our south, easterly winds will
bring in slightly more moisture, along with broken to overcast
skies east of the Blue Ridge a times today, becoming more solid
tonight.

Cooler temperatures continue with highs in the low to mid 60s
for most. Tonight, increasing winds and moisture will preclude
any frost/freeze potential, but expect mid 30s to low 40s for
the mountains, and the mid 40s to low 50s for the Piedmont under
cloud cover.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Trending milder through the period.
2. Showers will impact mainly northern and eastern parts of the
region this weekend.
3. Lingering showers in the east on Monday.

A look at the 9 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday/Saturday night a closed low over the
eastern Great lakes area. This feature will be moving through
the northern sections of a broader upper trough across eastern
portions of CONUS. A longwave trough is expected to be over
western CONUS. Ridging is expected from TX north into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, the low over
the eastern Great Lakes is expected to move into the mid-
Atlantic region. The trough over eastern CONUS is expected to
pivot cyclonically, with an overall negative tilt pattern
between the closed low and the trough. The trough over western
CONUS is expected to become a bit more broad, extending eastward
into the Northern Plains states. The ridge across central CONUS
becomes less amplified. For Monday/Monday night, the low/trough
merger continues a shift northeast, becoming centered just off
the New England coast during the evening hours. The trough
across western CONUS stalls, and perhaps experiences closed low
redevelopment. A ridge starts to re-strengthen across the south-
central portion of CONUS.

At the surface, for Saturday/Saturday night a ridge of high
pressure is expected to extend from New England southwest
along the spine of the Appalachians. A weak low is expected to
be heading southeast towards the axis of this ridge from the
Lower Ohio Valley. Another area of low pressure is expected to
be in the western Atlantic, off the GA/FL coast. For
Sunday/Sunday night, the low off the GA/FL coast is expected to
head north, and be off the VA/NC coast during the evening hours.
The ridge over the Appalachians remains in place although with
less definition as the upstream shortwave trough crosses the
mid-Atlantic region. Across the Northern and Central Plains
states, low pressure is expected over the Dakotas with a cold
front trailing south to KS/OK. For Monday/Monday night, the low
off the VA/NC coast continues heading north to northeast,
potentially with deepening after a merger with shortwave trough.
The axis of the ridge over the Appalachians may shift westward
a bit.

A look at the 9 Oct 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday and Monday are
expected to be around +10C. On Tuesday, values may inch up
slightly to around +11C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Over
the weekend confidence is fairly high in a merger of the
coastal low and the southeast progressing shortwave trough. The
big question remains exactly when and where this merger will
take place and what sensible weather impacts will that have on
our region. Additionally, while this is taking place, a ridge of
some magnitude is expected to remain situated generally over
the Appalachians, and potentially mitigating the potential for
showers for at least portions of our region. Out latest forecast
will have little change as compared to the prior. The best
potential for showers for our area from this system will be in
the east Saturday into Saturday night. For Sunday, the coverage
spreads north as the shortwave trough crosses the mid-Atlantic
region. By the time the merger of the two systems is complete,
the center of the low is expected to be northeast of the region,
taking its associated precipitation with it. Northeast sections
of the area may still have some lingering showers on Monday,
and possibly early Monday night. Temperatures during this
portion of the forecast are expected to trend from near normal
to five to ten degrees above normal by Monday.

Confidence in the expected temperature trend is high. Confidence
in the shower timing/placement is low to moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Dry with above normal temperatures through the period.

A look a the 9 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night a broad ridge across
south-central CONUS expands northward and eastward. A stalled
longwave trough is expected to remain over western CONUS. A
low/trough just off the New England coast drifts southeast. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, a well defined tough-ridge-trough
pattern is expect to exist from western CONUS to the western
Atlantic. The ridge portions of this configuration is expected
to be centered near the Mississippi River Valley. For Thursday,
while he overall pattern described for Wednesday does not change
too much, the northern extent of the ridge becomes a bit
curtailed as a shortwave trough heads southeast into north-
central CONUS. The low which was near the Dakotas is expected to
head northeast to near James Bay with its associated cold front
extending south into the Mississippi River Valley.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to cross the region
Tuesday/Tuesday night with high pressure building behind it. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the axis of this area of high pressure
draws closer from the northwest. For Thursday, the ridge axis is
expected to over our area.

A look at the 9 Oct 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures are expected to be around +12C
on Tuesday. Values decrease for Wednesday, to around +8C to
+10C, oriented north to south over the region. For Thursday,
values continue to slide to roughly +7C to +9C, ne-sw over the
region.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. We are
expecting a dry cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Any cool down
behind the front will be minimal, and probably just impact the
low temperatures slightly Tuesday night. A building high
pressure with minimal daytime cloud cover is expected to help
yield above normal temperatures through the period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the TAF period.
Some CAM guidance brings some scattered Cumulus from the east
into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge terminals today. Given it`s
scattered nature, it is not expected to lead to any restrictions
at this time. Some reduced VSBYs was maintained in the LWB TAF
as some river valley fog is again expected to develop this
morning. Upper level cirrus is expected to push north into the
region from the southeast later this afternoon and evening from
storms along a frontal boundary along the South Carolina and
Georgia coastline. Northeast winds overnight will slowly
transition to easterly and southeasterly through today. While
gusts are only expected to be in the 10-17 knot range.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An extended period of dry weather is likely. This will result
in widespread VFR. With a drier air mass, fog development should
become less of a concern.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH