884
FXUS61 KRNK 190029
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
829 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front will remain draped across the area into
the weekend, with widespread showers and storms expected. Flash
flooding will be possible each day, as storms may train from
west to east. This pattern will continue through the weekend,
before a cold front clears things out toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue in a
moisture-laden airmass over our forecast area this evening.
Convective intensity (and coverage) has started to decrease as
we lose instability with the sun setting. With mesoanalysis
data showing a large cold pool over much of the region in wake
of today`s thunderstorms, and barely enough shear for storm
organization, I`m expecting the showers and storms to gradually
end by midnight in most places. Similar to last night, we may
see some storms linger a little longer across parts of Southwest
Virginia and Southeast West Virginia given a little better
instability in these areas. Some fog can be expected in many
areas overnight, especially those that saw precipitation today.

Overall, the ongoing forecast appears to be in decent shape.
I may make a few tweaks here and there a little later, but any
adjustments should be minor.

AS OF 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Watch in effect for the entire area through midnight
tonight.

2) Widespread showers and storms will continue to form today along
and south of a stationary front.

3) Severe storms are possible, with damaging winds as the threat.

A quasi-stationary front has now sagged south into the RNK CWA
today, and will continue to be the trigger for widespread to
numerous showers and storms across the area. Storms have already
formed across WV/KY and are moving into the western CWA. Scattered
showers/storms across the rest of the area will continue to develop
and fill in as daytime heating increases over the next few hours.
Flash flooding will be a concern, due to a very moist airmass with
seasonably high PW values near 2.0". Rainfall rates will continue to
be efficient, which could cause flooding in urban and low-lying
areas, especially with recent heavy rainfall in parts of the area.
Mid-level flow will keep storms moving eastward at a decent rate,
which will help limit flooding potential, but due to the east to
west orientation of the front, training storms could become an
issue. Clear skies across the Piedmont has allowed CAPE to rise,
overcoming the early day CIN. This will support strong to severe
storms this afternoon. The entire area is in a Marginal Risk, with a
Slight Risk from Roanoke eastward. Damaging winds will again be the
threat, but the risk is more elevated than the last few days, thanks
to the front providing more shear across the area. Storms progress
eastward through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening
hours before dissipating overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Saturday will see a similar setup, with the front remaining stalled
over the area, which will again instigate widespread showers and
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Moisture will further
increase in the mid-levels, as the low along the Gulf Coast will
ride around the high pressure ridge over the Southeastern US and
work into our area late Saturday. Flash flooding will remain a
concern as heavy rainfall will be expected with the potential for
training storms to occur. Severe weather does not look likely
tomorrow, due to heavier cloud cover, which will limit instability.
However, isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out in the
strongest convection.

Temperatures remain slightly above average, with highs today in the
low 80s for the mountains, and low 90s for the Piedmont. Overnight
lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow will be a
degree or two cooler, with upper 70s in the highest elevations to
around 90 in the Piedmont, due to more cloud cover anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Mostly dry Sunday then storms likely Monday.

2) Any stronger storms Monday pose a risk of localized flash
flooding, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

A trough of low pressure will move east across the region Saturday
night. This trough will push convection east of the VA/NC piedmont
Saturday evening. Only notable change behind the trough will be a
west wind, which will help limit showers to the western slopes
Sunday. A backdoor cold front will track across the area Sunday
night into Monday. Behind this front will be a noticeable change in
the weather with cooler temperatures and drier air. As this front
travels south across the area Monday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible with the stronger storms developing along
and south of the VA/NC border during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Any of the stronger storms Monday may cause heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding, damaging winds from wet
microbursts that could blow down trees and power lines, and frequent
lightning.

High temperatures Sunday will range from 80s across the mountains to
lower 90s in the foothills and Piedmont. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected Monday as the front slowly moves over the
area. Highs Monday will range in the 80s with the cooler
temperatures to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather for most through the period.

2) Cooler than normal temperatures Tuesday moderating warmer each
day through next weekend.

Dry surface high pressure with a cool east wind will make for a nice
day across the region Tuesday. High temperatures will run from the
upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge will track east from
the Midwest Tuesday to the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday. This
heat dome will have temperatures warming above normal by the weekend.
The chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will also return
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Even with convective coverage decreasing, expect ISOLD/SCTD
SHRA/TSRA to be seen across the region through 19/0400 UTC.
This will result in relatively brief reductions in VSBY/CIGs for
the next few hours. More widespread flight restrictions are
expected overnight, as areas of BR/FG develop after 19/0600 UTC,
which will likely result in reductions to IFR/LIFR at a few
terminals. This is most likely to occur across SE WV (KLWB,
KBLF) based on the latest probabilistic data. After a brief
return to VFR flight categories Saturday morning, additional
SHRA/TSRA will likely develop after 19/1800 UTC, similar to the
past couple of days.

OUTLOOK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night-Monday night: Flight restrictions possible IVOF
SHRA/TSRA (mainly during the afternoon and evening), as well as
late night/early morning BR.

Tuesday: A cold front is expected to move through the region.
Flight restrictions remain possible IVOF any SHRA/TSRA.

Wednesday: No significant restrictions anticipated at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

A Flood Watch continues for the entire forecast area through
midnight tonight, as there is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall.

Streams across the hydrologic service area are generally
running above normal. Parts of the Dan River and upper James
River basins are near the 90th percentile. Most other basins are
between the 50th and 90th percentile...not your typical July.

Showers and storms will be very "efficient", meaning that with
high moisture content in the air, with PW values near 2.0", that
even a small storm can produce very heavy rainfall in a short
amount of time. Rainfall rates of 2-4" per hour are possible
this afternoon into this evening. Modest westerly flow will keep
storms moving east at a decent rate, but storms could train over
the same areas, and possibly backbuild along the stalled front
draped across the area.

WPC has highlighted an area just north of our county warning
area (the Shenandoah Valley) with a moderate risk, level 3 of 4,
for excessive rainfall. Those counties which border this
moderate risk will have the greatest chance for receiving
excessive rainfall this afternoon...Bath, Alleghany, Rockbridge,
Botetourt, Amherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg, Buckingham,
Appomattox, and Charlotte. 1 hour flash flood guidance (FFG) in
these areas is 1.5 inches in an hour. 3 hour FFG and 2.5 inches.
6 hour FFG is around 3 inches. Rain rates expected with these
storms may eclipse 4 inches an hour. Emergency Managers within
our bordering counties should take note because there is always
some margin of error in the models with respect to geographic
placement of these outlooks.

As for the remainder of our service area, we are still looking
at airmass (peak heating of the day) driven storms that will be
rain efficient...with potential for localized flash flooding in
low-lying or flood prone areas, along with urban flooding also
possible. Storms will drift into the foothills and piedmont
through the afternoon and into this evening before dissipating
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...DB/JCB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DB
HYDROLOGY...JCB/PM