Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
585 FXUS61 KRNK 011056 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 656 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain situated across the Mid-Atlantic and stay wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians through the early half of this week. High pressure will then slide east during the middle of the week, allowing for a modest warmup as winds shift more from the south. A cold front will approach on Thursday, bringing a chance for organized showers and thunderstorms into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Dry weather is expected for Labor Day under abundant sunshine. 2) Afternoon highs will be 6 to 8 degrees below normal. No concerns for hazardous weather today as high pressure remains situated across the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas. Wind flow around this high will generally be from the east- northeast, which will continue to draw cool, dry air from the southern New England region. As such, afternoon highs will be some 6 to 8 degrees below normal for early September, reaching into the 70s for most. No rain is in the forecast, and abundant sunshine is expected, intermixed with passing clouds. As such, UV exposure will be high today, and you`ll want to keep the sunscreen handy if planning to spend extended periods of time outdoors. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Warming temperatures, but still cooler than normal. 2) Rain chances increase across the mountains. On Tuesday, a broad upper-level trough will set up over the central United States, and a shortwave disturbance will track across the southern Ohio Valley. This system will bring an increase in clouds to the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains late in the afternoon and into the overnight hours. The air will feel relatively warm and humid with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s across the west. However, a different story will unfold for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge. A "wedge" of cooler, dry, and stable air will be in control. This high-pressure setup will keep the skies mostly sunny, creating a pleasant, dry day for the Piedmont and foothills. By Wednesday, the wedge will begin to erode, though it will hold its ground over the Piedmont. This will allow for the atmosphere to become a bit more unstable over the mountains, leading to scattered, diurnal showers. These are the classic pop-up thunderstorms, fueled by daytime heating and the residual moisture from the previous day`s shortwave. The showers will be scattered in nature and will fade away in the evening as the sun sets and the atmosphere cools. High temperatures will vary significantly depending on location. West of the Blue Ridge, where the atmosphere will be moister and showers are more likely, highs will be held in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, to the east of the Blue Ridge, the lingering wedge of dry air will allow temperatures to climb, reaching the upper 70s and even the lower 80s in some spots. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Showers likely Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Strong front arrives Saturday. The middle of the week will see a shift in the regional weather pattern as a cold front begins its approach. On Thursday, this cold front will make its presence known, sweeping across the area and bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. The day will start warm, but as the afternoon progresses, the front will push through the mountains, triggering storms. By early evening, showers and thunderstorms will spread into the foothills, and by the late evening, they will arrive in the Piedmont. High temperatures on Thursday will be warm, reaching the low to mid-70s in the mountains and the low to mid-80s in the foothills and Piedmont, ahead of the frontal passage. The front`s progression will then slow down significantly. By Thursday night and into Friday, the front will stall over the area. This will create a day-long period where the boundary between the cool air to the west and the warmer air to the east remains in place. This stationary front will be a focus for continued atmospheric instability, leading to the development of scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A more decisive change is expected on Saturday. A stronger, more robust cold front will arrive and finally push through the entire area during the afternoon and evening. This will clear out the lingering showers and signal the end of the unsettled period. High temperatures on both Friday and Saturday will follow the same pattern as Thursday: low to mid-70s in the mountains and low to mid- 80s in the foothills and Piedmont. Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, the change will be undeniable. The strong cold front will have passed, and a new, dry high-pressure system will move in. This will bring much cooler and more comfortable conditions for the start of the next week, with lower humidity and clear skies. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Monday... IR satellite imagery indicates river valley fog has developed across portions of southeast West Virginia this morning, and is impacting KLWB with visibilities in the 1/4SM range. Fog will burn off gradually after 13Z given abundant sunshine. High pressure will remain situated across the lower Mid- Atlantic into the Carolinas today, sustaining windflow from the east-northeast. Windspeeds at most locations will be less than 5 knots, though isolated gusts in the 8kt to 13kt range are possible during the 15Z to 22Z timeframe. VFR conditions are expected, with no shower or thunderstorm activity in the forecast through the period. Mountain valley fog will develop tonight, with high confidence that KLWB will have 1/4SM visibilities by 02/10Z. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will remain predominant through the first half of the week, though localized MVFR/IFR conditions may develop due to early morning fog, as well as within any localized showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach toward the end of the work week, bringing a chance of better organized showers and a few thunderstorms for Thursday and possibly Friday, as well as sub- VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...NF