Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
067 FXUS61 KRNK 281749 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued area-wide through 8 PM this evening. Another second, more potent round of storms is expected through this afternoon into evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a secondary tornado and hail threat. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Another round of more potent thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Storms have the potential to be strong/severe. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Another round of more potent thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Storms have the potential to be strong/severe. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 PM this evening area- wide. First impulse and associated rain has largely exited the area. Much of the previous activity was stratiform while more cellular development occurred near the western CWA. Some segments of strong storms have quickly triggered across WV and will enter our NW shortly. This was supported earlier this morning with decent CAM consensus and some scattering of the cloud deck has occurred allowing for destabilization. The upper NW flow looks to still support some shortwave impulse influencing dynamic forcing for continued development. Shear parameters look quite favorable for organized storm modes along with possible supercells interacting with low level helicity. Still thinking damaging winds are the primary threat then large hail and isolated tornadoes as secondary threats. As far as the flash flooding threat, there was already some training cells in the west earlier that prompted and verified warning issuance. This could continue to be an issue for other areas that see similar cell trends with the transition into the afternoon round of convection. The morning sounding indicated about a 1.5 inch PWAT so these storms should be efficient precip producers. By later this evening activity should wane and exit southward, then much of the rest of this week should be dry and dominated with an upper ridge of high pressure. The next main chance for precip looks to hold off until next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... While some shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed southeastward, another round of development is possible through the afternoon that could have strong to severe VRB gusts and reduced vsbys. Some clearing could occur later this evening into the overnight, while cigs of MVFR and lower could form near BLF to LWB. Outside of any storms, winds this afternoon should be west to SW 12- 14 kts gusting to the low 20s, then shift NW this evening through Wednesday with enhanced gusts again during the daytime. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Gusty, post frontal winds are expected Wednesday, but VFR. The rest of the week through Friday will also be mainly VFR, outside of any morning fog. Precipitation chances increase again by Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AB AVIATION...AB/BMG