016
FXUS61 KRNK 070625
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
225 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1: Isolated severe storms possible today in parts of the far east
otherwise daytime showers and storms for much of next week.

2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal temperatures
for the Piedmont at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Isolated severe storms possible today in parts of the
far east otherwise daytime showers and storms for much of next week.

Guidance in good agreement with evolution of a frontal boundary
sagging southwestward into part of the area today as a sfc ridge
builds northeast. Parts of the north and east will have a greater
chance of convective triggering with this feature along with the
orientation of the instability axis and marginal deep layer bulk
shear near 25-30 kts. Given this there could be some isolated strong
to severe development with strong to damaging winds as the main
threat and SPC continues to have our eastern Piedmont included in a
Marginal Risk today.

The aforementioned sfc high should keep the east mainly dry for
Monday and Tuesday as the front and moisture axis looks to stall
near the western CWA. A weak upper disturbance should slowly
traverse the area Wednesday allowing for greater convective coverage
and a more moist and conditionally unstable airmass should remain
for the end of the week allowing for a more summertime regime with
diurnally driven showers and storms.

Key Message 2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal
temperatures for the Piedmont at times.

Today looks like the warmest day, with the Piedmont creeping into
the low to even mid 90s in the afternoon. On Monday, the cold front
is expected to be through the area, but even if it is not, cloud
cover should keep temperatures from getting too hot. Although we
will be well above normal for temperatures in the Piedmont, any
record-breaking heat will remain outside of our forecast area. That
said, it will seem quite hot with humidity also gradually increasing
this week. Wednesday through Friday look especially muggy.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period.
Have added VCTS to LYH as some isolated thunderstorms look to push
within the vicinity of LYH after 19 UTC this afternoon. These
thunderstorms should push south and east out of the area of LYH by
00 UTC. Some VCSH has been added to DAN after 00 UTC to account for
these showers along the frontal boundary moving south throughout the
late evening and early overnight period. Winds will predominantly be
out of the west at around 10 knots or less through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

On Monday, some additional SHRA and TSRA look possible at BCB and
BLF during the early morning hours and late afternoon and evening
hours. As high pressure settles into the Northeast on Monday, winds
will transition to the northeast, with occasional gusts up to 25
knots possible. As the high pressure pushes off the Mid-Atlantic
states coastlines late Monday into Tuesday, winds are expected to
transition to easterly and southeasterly across all terminals. This
will return moisture back into the region allowing for daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.
These showers and thunderstorms may cause brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions and brief periods of erratic and gusty winds if they move
in the vicinity or over a terminal.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB/SH
AVIATION...EB