730
FXUS61 KRNK 060511
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather through Monday. The
high moves offshore by Tuesday while a front approaches from the
west. Temperatures will warm ahead of the front with above
normal readings forecast Monday and Tuesday. The front is
expected to bring showers to the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message: Dry weather. Warming temperatures.

Pattern of high pressure at the surface and aloft remain today
but southerly flow aloft will start increasing humidity, which
will result in a few more cumulus clouds this afternoon into
tonight but still mostly sunny overall. Lows Monday night will
be in the 50s, with some around 60 as approach of front and
clouds limits temp drop.

Fog is also possible early this morning within the New,
Greenbrier, and upper James River basins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Isolated to scattered showers possible in the west Tuesday
afternoon.
2. Much better chance of showers for the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday.
3. Isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
4. Above average temperatures Tuesday trending to near normal
by Thursday.

A look at the 5 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night a broad region of high
pressure centered over the SE US. A trough will be crossing the
Great Lakes region into the Lower Ohio Valley. An additional trough
will be moving through British Columbia. For Wednesday/Wednesday
night, the center of the SE US high/ridge retrogrades to over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. The Great Lakes trough will move
across our region and be centered over New England by the evening
hours Wednesday. The trough over BC will be entering the Pacific
Northwest of the US. For Thursday/Thursday night, the trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to stall and form a
closed low, centered just off the coast. The center of the upper
high/ridge is expected to continue shifting west, reaching west
Texas. A shortwave trough will be entering western Ontario, and
another weak shortwave trough may be over the Lower Ohio Valley.

At the surface, for Tuesday/Tuesday night high pressure will be
positioned across the western Atlantic with its associated ridge
axis extending southwest into the mid-atlantic region. Another
region of high pressure is expected to be centered near the
MN/Canadian border. Between the two highs, low pressure will be near
the Canadian Maritimes with a cold front extending southwest through
New England an into the Ohio River Valley. For Wednesday/Wednesday
night, the cold front crosses our region early Wednesday and reaches
the western Atlantic by the early evening hours. High pressure
behind the front expands eastward into the Ohio Valley. For
Thursday/Thursday night, the center of the high progresses eastward,
reaching New England by the evening hours. Its associated ridge axis
is expected to be over our region around this same time.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
combination of a high pressure ridge over the region, and the
approach of a cold front, low level winds will trend southeast to
south, and potentially southwest, across the region on Tuesday. This
flow change will both milder temperatures and higher dew point
values into the region on Tuesday. The result should be a day
slightly milder and more humid as compared to conditions expected
today. Additionally, those portions of the forecast area closest to
the Ohio Valley will have the best chances of experiencing some
showers, especially during the peak heating hours of the afternoon.
Little if any shower activity is expected east of the crest of the
Blue Ridge.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the potential for showers will
be at its greatest as the cold front enters and crosses our region.
Southeastern parts of the area may see a resurgence in coverage late
in the afternoon around the time of peak heating. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, especially over eastern parts of the
area during peak heating of the day. By Wednesday evening, the vast
majority of the region will be shower-free, with cooler and drier
high pressure working is way into the region from the west. For
Thursday and Thursday night, cooler and dry conditions are expected
for the entire region.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Near normal temperatures through the period.
2. Dry for the vast majority of the region.
3. Minimal chances of rain/showers in the east Sat/Sun.

A look a the 5 Oct NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Friday/Friday night, the shortwave trough over the Lower
Ohio Valley beginning to amplify, such that much of eastern CONUS is
under some amount of troughiness. A low over the coast of the
Pacific Northwest remains situated there. A ridge strengthens from
near the NM/TX border north into the Rockies. For Saturday/Saturday
night, little change is expected across eastern CONUS from a
synoptic stand point. However, along the west coast, the trough just
off the coast is expected to amplify and move onshore. The ridge
across the rockies weakens. For Sunday, expect even greater
amplification of the trough over the west coast. Along the east
coast, a general region of troughiness is expected to continue from
the mid-Atlantic south to FL.

At the surface, for Friday/Friday night, the center of the high
progresses into the western Atlantic just southeast of far eastern
Canada. Its associated ridge axis will extend southwest into at
least the mid-Atlatnic region, if not farther west into the mid-
Mississippi Valley. For Saturday/Saturday night, the ridge axis over
eastern CONUS shifts slightly west into the Lower Ohio Valley, with
potentially the development of an inverted south just off the coast
of the SE US. On Sunday, little change is expected on Sunday as
compared to Saturday. A ridge axis is expected to extend from New
England to the Lower Ohio Valley with an inverted trough off the SE
US coast.

A look at the 5 Oct 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures trend upward on Friday compared to
Thursday, reaching +9C to +10C, ne-sw, by the afternoon. On Saturday
and Sunday, values will be around +10C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. A ridge of
high pressure will remain over or just west of our region during
this portion of the forecast. The result is expected to be
temperatures around normal for this time of year. Precipitation is
expected to be minimal. Any precipitation will be the result of the
development of a potential inverted trough off the SE US coast.
Cyclonic flow around this feature may advect onshore moisture into
our region for small chances of rain/showers over primarily eastern
parts of the region.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue to persist for all sites
except LYH, BCB, DAN, and LWB, where some MVFR to LIFR fog
appears possible again as low level dewpoints increase. This is
mainly going to occur in the 09-13z time frame, with lower
confidence of fog at DAN/LYH. Low clouds do look to develop
across NW North Carolina today due to upslope flow and
increasing low level moisture but for the taf sites expect
few/sct cu in the 3-6kft range mainly BLF-BCB-DAN. Winds stay
light out of the south to southwest under 10kts.

Forecast confidence = high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Fair weather expected through into early Tuesday. In general,
expecting VFR. Only exception will be late night and early
morning river fog vcnty of LWB/BCB, and some increasing MVFR
cloud base SW of ROA.

Showers/isolated storms possible as early as Tuesday afternoon
in the mountains and scattered into the Piedmont Tuesday night.
High pressure will bring dry and cooler weather for Thursday
into Friday with VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB/WP