Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
827 FXUS61 KRNK 011727 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1227 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Afternoon aviation update. Good confidence in rainfall occurring mid to late week, but amounts continue to trend downward. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quiet weather continues as temperatures warm up early this week, next notable rain chance arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather continues as temperatures warm up early this week, next notable rain chance arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. Seasonable temperatures accompany quiet and dry weather today across the area, as high pressure remains embedded over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak upper-level shortwave will pass through the area tonight, which could trigger a few light showers, but confidence is low in these occurring. Quiet weather then continues for the early part of the upcoming week, with no further rain chances until late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure pushes offshore into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, with the clockwise flow around the high bringing warmer temperatures back into the area. Highs will climb into the 70s, with some Piedmont locations approaching 80 by Wednesday ahead of the next system. That next system will move across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region by Thursday, with the accompanying cold front bringing the best chance of rain to our area in the past several weeks. However, models have continued to back off on precipitation coverage, as the system and upper-level trough both try to retreat farther north, causing less moisture and lift across our area. While the entire area is currently expected to still receive rainfall, the best chances and higher totals will be along/west of the Blue Ridge. Lingering light showers may stick around through the end of the week, particularly for the western mountains due to upslope flow and a another shortwave that passes through. Otherwise, quiet weather once again returns through next weekend, with temperatures still slightly above normal but cooling off around 5 degrees behind the front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions look to remain through the TAF period at all terminals. Some overcast upper level clouds predominantly above 10000 feet are expected for a majority of the TAF period, with some 5-7 thousand foot cloud decks moving in to BLF and LWB by the end of the TAF period. Winds will continue to remain fair out of the east/northeast at Piedmont terminals, and east/southeast for mountain terminals. Winds at all terminals look to remain around 5 knots or less for most of the TAf period, with calm to variable winds forecast during the overnight periods. Overall, expect ideal flying conditions across the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will likely continue into early next week with quiet weather and continual cloudy skies. These conditions should prevent any river valley fog from developing at LWB through much of the week. A frontal system looks to approach around the middle of next week bringing with it the next chance for sub-VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCB AVIATION...EB