004
FXUS61 KRNK 180149
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
949 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue moving north of the area tonight as
a cold front approaches from the west. This same cold front
will continue to approach the region on Wednesday and cross the
area Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will be
commonplace until the cold front exits the region, and high
pressure arrives, providing for drier weather Friday and through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Potential for strong to severe storms along and west of I-77
through about midnight.
2. Redevelopment of showers/storms expected by mid-day
Wednesday, with greatest coverage over the mountains.

Now that we are past peak heating, atmosphere should stabilize.
Widely scattered showers and a few storms still ongoing across
the CWA with a bit more organization taking place west of I-77.
A line of storms was moving north through western NC/SC. CAMS
maintain this activity until midnight as it moves north-northeast.
The HRRR in particular brings this line northward with
potential impacts to areas along and west of I-77, so our plan
is to extend flood watch until midnight from BLuefield to Boone.

Much of the activity is expected to wane overnight. Lingering
showers may continue over primarily southeast West Virginia. As
winds trend light, there will be the potential for fog
development, especially within the river valleys and those
locations this evening which receive a generous amount of rain.

On Wednesday, we will remain within a warm/hot and humid airmass in
advance of an approaching cold front. Look for showers and storms to
start developing around mid-day over the mountains, and spread east
as the afternoon progresses.

Temperatures tonight and Wednesday are expected to average about
five degrees above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front moves into our area Thursday afternoon, bringing
potential severe weather.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through the period.

Wednesday night will see any storms that developed during the day
taper off overnight, similarly to each day the past week or so.
Thursday will be the most active day of the period, as a strong cold
front approaches the area from the west. Showers will be possible
west of the Blue Ridge Thursday morning. By afternoon, daytime
heating along with the increased surface forcing from the front and
upper-level support from a longwave trough will provide a good
environment for severe storms to develop, particularly along/east of
the Blue Ridge. The SPC has our area in a slight risk on Thursday.
Exact hazards are still not fully certain, but for now, the biggest
threats are damaging winds and large hail.

Rainfall is not expected to be particularly heavy due to the quick
movement of the front, but with recent heavy rainfall across the
area, isolated flash flooding is still possible. Rainfall totals for
the event are expected to be around 0.25-0.50", with higher amounts
possible in the heaviest thunderstorms. The front moves through
Thursday night, with high pressure building in behind it across the
Mid-Atlantic Region, with quiet weather for Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will be consistent, with upper 70s in the mountains and
80s along/west of the Blue Ridge Thursday and Friday. The Piedmont
will see low 90s Thursday reduce to the upper 80s for Friday. Lows
each night will mostly be in the 60s, though behind the front, the
highest elevations may fall into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier air will keep most areas quiet through the weekend into
next week.

2) A heat wave will begin across the region, with widespread 90s
expected.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will set up over the
region and dominate the weather pattern through the entire period.
Mostly dry and quiet weather is expected, with only a stray storm
possible over the weekend, though this is looking less likely. By
Tuesday, high pressure at the surface remains firmly in place, but
the upper high shifts east, allowing an easterly flow aloft to drive
Atlantic moisture into the region. This will allow a few afternoon
thunderstorms to develop with the aid of diurnal heating,
particularly across Southwest VA and Northwest NC.

The heat will be the main talking point for next week, with
temperatures well above normal and a likely heat wave expected area-
wide. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s for the first part of
the weekend, but continue to rise into early next week, with highs in
the upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 90s across the
Piedmont. Along with high humidity, heat indexes could reach 100-105
for the Piedmont. Lows will be fairly consistent, generally in the
60s to low 70s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered showers/storms ongoing this evening. An organized line
of storms was moving north from western NC/SC. This may impact
flight routes toward CLT through midnight with activity forecast
to move north through western NC before weakening. Some of the
convective allowing models bring storms up the I-77 corridor
with potential impacts to BLF/LWB/BCB around midnight. Added a
tempo group to account for this. After midnight storms should
weaken with areas of stratus and fog developing for the late
night. After daybreak Wednesday, expecting to repeat the cycle
again with cloud build-ups along the Blue Ridge early afternoon
and becoming scattered to numerous for the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds are expected to be light overnight then be out of
the southwest at 5 to 15kts for Wednesday...gusts up to 25 mph
near thunderstorms.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Late night/early morning fog possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, especially within the river valleys where where This afternoon showers have been developing primarily along and
just east of the crest of the Blue Ridge, southwest of Roanoke,
and heading east. Additionally activity has been along and
north of a line roughly from Lewisburg, WV to Lexington, VA.
Coverage is expected to expand within these areas, and points
east. Movement has been generally towards the northeast or east
around 10 mph. The potential exists for those storms which grow
tall enough to generate strong downdrafts. With how moist the
soil has become in some areas the past few days, winds which may
not be at severe level may be strong enough to down trees.
Additionally, as multiple showers and storms potentially train
across the same location, we will be watching for the potential
for localized flooding. As such, a flood watch continues for
most of the region until late this evening.rainfall had been
heavy.

Cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Strong to severe storms possible. Continuation of sub-VFR
conditions within the heavier cells.

Drier and better chances of VFR conditions across most of
the region Friday through Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-009-010-012-
     015-016.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-013-014-
     017>020-022>024-032>035-043>045.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>003-018>020.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004-005.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042-043-508.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ044-507.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM