Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
098 FXUS61 KRNK 181032 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 632 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms. Summertime pattern continues into early next week, then a cool down. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms. Summertime pattern continues into early next week then a cool down. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Mid- Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the area . Surface dewpoints within this airmass will be in the 60s to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. In response to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms will form in the mountains and move southward into the Piedmont and foothills. The thermodynamic environment may be enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening when low- level lapse rates become steepest, especially along/south of the VA/NC border. The front shift south Saturday but close enough to keep shower/storm chances around with higher probabilities over the southern Blue Ridge, and less across the central VA Piedmont. Airmass should be a little more stable so not expecting anything severe. The front works north Sunday as a warm front, then drops again early next week, while upper trough starts to dig southeast into the Ohio Valley. Should see an uptick in rain chances Monday- Tuesday. By mid to late week the fronts should be east and south of us and high pressure arrives from the north. However, the upper trough remains northwest of the area and will keep shower chances around while temperatures cool to below normal. For most, this will be much needed rain, but still overall doesn`t look like a complete washout. Just keep the umbrellas handy at times. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Look at some patchy fog in the IFR category around LWB/BCB to start to the taf period although increasing clouds have somewhat allowed for improving vsbys. A potential for showers and sub-VFR may reach LWB in the 14-17z time frame. Otherwise, look for scattered convection this afternoon, dissipating after 00z/Sat. Allowed for VCTS for all sites with VFR cigs/vsbys. Any storm may bring sub-VFR conditions for a limited time if it passes over an airport. Models are favoring lower cigs/vsbys later Friday night as the front will be south and flow turns more northeast to east allowing for moist low level flow to keep some cigs down around 1kft, leaning toward the lower side, with potential IFR or lower fog at BLF/LWB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances through Tuesday especially over the mountains. Front is expected to stall over the area this weekend which may lead to low cigs both Saturday and Sunday in addition to valley fog...especially at night and during the morning both Saturday and Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WP AVIATION...WP