208
FXUS61 KRNK 222355
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
755 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet weather continues through tonight, with a few
lingering showers in the mountains. Patchy dense fog will be
possible overnight, mainly along the Blue Ridge. A cool wedge
of high pressure begins to weaken tomorrow as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the weekend. After the cold
front exits Sunday night, high pressure will return to bring
cooler and drier weather for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy fog expected along the Blue Ridge overnight.

2) Rain chances increase tomorrow for the mountains.

3) Near seasonal temperatures expected.

A weak high pressure wedge kept most of the area in cloud cover
today, but conditions finally began to clear out late afternoon. The
cloud cover kept stable conditions across most of the area, aside
from the far southwestern portions of VA into the NC mountains.
Upslope easterly flow and higher moisture content along with diurnal
heating allowed a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. These
have mostly dissipated now, but a few showers will linger for
the next few hours. Fog is then expected to develop in the
valleys and along the Blue Ridge tonight, with some areas being
dense. This clears out by daybreak, though cloudy skies remain
through late morning. Another chance of showers/storms will
move in tomorrow afternoon, mainly for the mountains, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west, and an inverted trough
increases moisture west of the Blue Ridge. The Piedmont looks to
remain dry.

Adjusted the forecast slightly to accommodate for the clearing skies
by bumping up temps slightly for the next few hours before
radiational cooling takes over. Also increased PoPs where convection
was occurring and added a slight chance of thunder through sunset.
Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Forecast Discussion...

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Fog appears likely from Lewisburg to Blacksburg and southward
along the Blue Ridge towards Fancy Gap tonight. The cool wedge
of high pressure should weaken and exit during Saturday as the
flow turns toward the southeast. An approaching cold front over
the Ohio River Valley combined with moisture convergence should
spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains
by Saturday afternoon, while the Piedmont should remain dry.
With moist air in place, any stronger storms could produce heavy
rainfall that may trigger localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms Sunday, with heavy rainfall possible,
resulting in localized flooding.

2. Cooler than normal temperatures to start the work week.

A strong cold front is expected Sunday, and will bring increased
coverage for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon.
Ample moisture ahead of this feature will trigger convection on
Saturday, which will linger overnight into Sunday, mainly for
the mountains. Thunder probabilities decrease during the
nighttime hours, and so would likely only see isolated to
scattered showers continuing into the morning. However, with the
approach of the front, coverage will increase through the day,
and showers and storms will become more widespread. SBCAPE will
be in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range, depending how much clearing
occurs after any lingering precipitation wanes. The Piedmont
looks to be more stable, and shower and thunderstorm chances
will be greatest along and west of the Blue Ridge. 24 hour
rainfall totals through Monday morning are generally less than
an inch. However, there is potential for higher totals under
some of the stronger storms, since there is a lot of available
atmospheric moisture for efficient rain processes and thus high
rainfall rates, and so locally higher totals are possible. Heavy
rainfall could lead to excessive runoff and ponding of water on
roads, as well as flooding of low lying, urban, and poor
drainage areas.

After the front pulls away, high pressure builds into the
region, and flow aloft turns more northwesterly, which will
start to bring in more dry air aloft, and also bringing an end
to the precipitation by Monday. Cold air advection and pressure
rises behind the front will result in gusty winds Monday, with
gusts between 15 to 25 mph west of the Blue Ridge, and 10 to 20
in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Stretch of cooler and dry weather through most of the week.

2. Temperatures up to 10 degrees below normal, with low
temperatures in the 40s west of the Blue Ridge.

A deep upper trough will cross through the eastern US during the
beginning of the week, and northwesterly flow aloft will usher a
cooler and drier airmass into the region. Dry air combined with
subsidence via the surface high pressure that will become
situated over the Mid Atlantic and into the northeast will keep
precipitation chances near zero through much of the week. The
high looks to become centered nearly overhead by Thursday, and
then start to slide eastward by Friday, as a cold front drops
into the Midwest, and a stalled front across the southeast US
also starts to slowly lift northward as a warm front. Flow
around the surface high will advect moisture into the southeast
through the week, so will keep chances for rain down south.
However, as that front inches north, could see some isolated to
scattered showers develop over northwest North Carolina Friday
afternoon.

The bigger weather story is the colder than normal temperatures
the area will see during the week. Highs will be in the mid
60s in the west, to mid to upper 70s in the east for most days,
with a subtle warming Friday, ahead of the approaching front.
Dry air and mostly clear skies at night will allow temperatures
to fall into the 40s and 50s. Could see temperatures in the low
40s for elevated valleys and some of the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Most terminals are currently in VFR flight conditions, except BCB,
which is bouncing between VFR/MVFR due to low cigs and cloud
coverage. ROA/LYH have low VFR cigs around 3500 feet. Clouds will
continue to break up some before filling back in overnight across
the area. The brief clearing will allow for radiational cooling and
combined with light winds, will allow fog to form along the Blue
Ridge, mostly impacting BCB/LWB between 06-13z, as VSBY will likely
go down to under 1/2 mile and cigs to drop to under 500 feet at
those locations, causing LIFR flight conditions. BLF will also see
some fog, but winds remain slightly higher, keeping VSBY around 2
miles in IFR. All other terminals will see a reduction in VSBY, but
only to MVFR levels, with cigs doing the same.

Fog clears out by 13z Saturday area-wide, and cigs remain low but
rise to VFR levels. Showers will be possible in BLF during the
morning, with afternoon storms possible for BCB/BLF/LWB due to an
approaching cold front from the Midwest. Any storms that impact a
terminal will cause temporary drops to sub-VFR. Dry weather remains
across the Piedmont, with clouds becoming more scattered during the
late afternoon and VFR flight conditions persisting through the end
of the TAF period there.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front off to our west moves through the area on Sunday,
producing showers and thunderstorms until it clears through by
Monday morning, which will bring flight conditions down to sub-VFR.
Northwesterly flow behind the front will be quite strong at times,
with winds gusting to 15-20 knots at times through Tuesday. High
pressure also settles into the region beginning Monday, with cooler
and drier weather expected through late next week. Once the front
clears through Sunday night, VFR conditions are expected area-wide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB/PW
NEAR TERM...JCB/PW
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JCB/PW