411
FXUS61 KRNK 250028
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
828 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures adjusted to reflect recent observations and updated
model guidance.

Aviation Discussion Forecast updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather through Halloween.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:Dry through Halloween

Been dealing with stratocu that has been trapped under
subsidence inversion in the mountains this morning and sunshine
angle getting a little lower taking more time to mix out that
inversion thereby keeping the clouds in a little longer.
Satellite trends showing these clouds clearing out.

Some models are showing another repeat tonight as moisture
around 2-5kft gets trapped under another inversion. So leaned
toward more clouds in the Piedmont advancing west to the
mountains by dawn. This may affect temps limiting any frost
potential.

As high pressure builds overhead Sunday night, not seeing any
cloud concerns and should be a fairly good radiational cooling
night such that frost is likely to form and may need headlines
for the Piedmont/east of the Blue Ridge. Remember the growing
season for the mountains ended earlier this month thereby no
frost/freeze headlines for them.

The rest of the week keeps a dry pattern in place, though some
frontal boundaries should steer some clouds our way at times,
but for the most part mostly sunny days are expected.

Model ensembles showing next chance for any showers may come
around the 1st-3rd of November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Similar to yesterday evening`s forecast, there will be some low
level stratocumulus clouds moving in from the east and
entrenching into the Appalachian Mountains. Cloud cover will
expand up to scattered overnight and into tomorrow morning
before returning to clear by the afternoon. While cloud cover
may not be expansive, they still will hover around 3000 ft.
Periods of MVFR conditions are not out of the question if cloud
ceilings drop but model guidance leans towards VFR for the bulk
of the forecast period. Some early morning river fog is also
possible again which will most likely affect KLWB. Otherwise,
winds will be mostly from the east between 4-8 knots.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will likely continue into next week as higher
pressure dominates the region. The next best chance of any
precipitation may not be until the start of November. Early
morning river fog may still be possible for the next few days.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...CG