782
FXUS61 KRNK 181102
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
702 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will retreat off the Carolina coast today,
allowing for almost summer-like temperatures this afternoon as
winds switch from the southwest. A cold front will arrive on
Sunday, which will bring the potential of a few thunderstorms
capable of producing locally damaging winds. More seasonable
temperatures are expected Monday as high pressure arrives in the
wake of this cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT Saturday...

Update this morning made for slight adjustments to temperatures
and to slightly decrease clouds in the forecast based on current
observations.


As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Dry conditions and almost summer-like warmth expected today.

Starting this morning off with high pressure gradually
retreating eastward off the Carolina coast, which has been
allowing winds to switch from the southwest. The wind shift is
making for early morning temperatures significantly warmer than
those of 24 hours ago, ranging from the mid 40s in the Piedmont
and the deeper mountain valleys, to the mid 50s across the
higher ridgetops.

Expect dry conditions today under passing high clouds.
Afternoon temperatures will be almost summer-like, some 10-12
degrees above normal for the middle of October. As a cold front
approaches from the west late tonight, wind speeds will
gradually increase after midnight, with gusts potentially
reaching 15 to locally 30 mph from the south-southwest for much
of the area by dawn on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday as a cold front
moves through.

2) Above normal temperatures Sunday/Tuesday, near normal
Monday.

3) Gusty winds through much of the period.

It will initially be dry to start the day on Sunday, as a cold
front will be off to our west in the Mississippi Valley. This is
in association with a strong low pressure system that will be
over the Great Lakes, supported by a deep upper-level longwave
trough. Models have trended up with rain coverage across the
area, now showing a line of showers, and possibly a rumble of
thunder moving through the area in the afternoon hours. In a
different season, this would be a great setup for severe
weather, but instability across the area will be very low, due
to cloud cover and cooler temperatures, which will limit the
convection potential. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk for severe
weather is in place for our entire area. This is mainly due to
the wind energy that is accompanying this system, which could
mix down to the surface and produce isolated damaging wind gusts
along the line of gusty showers that forms. Winds ahead of the
front will be quite strong from the southwest, around 15-20 mph
with gusts of 30+ mph possible area-wide. This is due to a tight
pressure gradient between the strong low to the north and two
high pressure systems, one in the western Atlantic, and another
across the southern Plains.

The front clears through the area Sunday night, with showers
lingering in the northern half of the region until around
sunrise Monday morning. Rain totals are not expected to be high,
but they have trended up yet again. The Piedmont is now
expected to have generally around 0.25", with around 0.50" along
the Blue Ridge. The mountains are still forecast to receive
around 0.75", with locally higher amounts possible in the
heaviest convection. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall for Sunday/Sunday night for our WV counties, though the
lack of recent rainfall should help to absorb the rain that
does fall. Nonetheless, an isolated chance of flash flooding is
possible in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

Sunday night will also continue to have gusty winds west of the
Blue Ridge, especially along the ridge tops as the winds shift
to the west. Winds of 10-15 mph will continue through the night
and into early Monday, with gusts of 25-35+ mph. By Monday
night, wind gusts reduce to around 10 mph. Dry weather will then
persist across most of the area through the end of the period.
Another cold front approaches the area late Tuesday, which could
allow a few showers across WV, though confidence in this is
low.

Temperatures will remain above average for most of the period,
though they take a brief dip for Monday. Highs will be in the
60s/70s for both Sunday and again on Tuesday, as both days will
see southerly flow advect warmer air into the area. On Monday,
highs fall to around normal, with upper 50s in the mountains and
60s for the Piedmont. Lows will be in the 30s/40s Monday
morning, with mainly 30s for Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather through the period as high pressure dominates.

2) Temperatures near to slightly below normal, with chilly
mornings.

A second cold front will be quickly moving through the area
Tuesday night. Despite upper-level support, there is limited
moisture available, which will lead to virtually no rainfall,
though a stray shower cannot be ruled out in our WV counties
thanks to upslope flow and being closer to the surface low over
the Great Lakes. Any light showers are gone by Wednesday
morning, with high pressure over the Deep South building into
the area from the west. This high keeps dry and quiet weather
over our area through late week, before a cutoff low over the
Great Plains begins to drift east towards our area. Models are
hinting that some moisture could reach our area late Friday into
next weekend, but confidence is low in this, considering it is
one week out.

With the reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front, highs
will be below normal for the middle of next week, with highs in
the 50s/60s, with the highest elevations possibly not making it
out of the 40s on Wednesday. These temperatures moderate by the
end of the week to right around normal, with highs generally in
the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s/40s, though Thursday
morning could see some areas west of the Blue Ridge fall below
freezing. Winds remain elevated midweek due to a pressure
gradient between the low over the Great Lakes and the fairly
strong high to the south. This keeps winds from the WNW around
10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph possible Tuesday night
through Thursday morning, particularly west of the Blue Ridge
along the ridgetops. This will cause wind chills to be in the
mid to upper 20s in the mountains Wednesday and Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect VFR conditions through the 18/12Z forecast period under
scattered high clouds. Winds will be predominantly from the
south-southwest at less than 10kts through 19/00Z. Gusts will
then gradually increase thereafter into the 15kt to locally
25kt range by 19/12Z as a strong cold front approaches from the
west.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind speeds will continue to strengthen early Sunday, with
gusts in the afternoon ranging from the 20kts to locally 35kts
from the south ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The
front will pass rapidly across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
afternoon and evening, triggering a few thunderstorms capable
of localized damaging winds and brief but heavy downpours.

With post-frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings in place Sunday evening,
flying conditions will gradually improve through the night as
high pressure builds in from the southwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NF