075
FXUS61 KRNK 072320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer than average temperatures again this week.

2) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible later in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warmer than average temperatures again this week.

Enjoy the conditions today as we can expect another warm period
for this week. Similar to the start of September, a large mid-
level ridge over the Great Plains will move eastward and bring
warmer and humid conditions to the southeastern CONUS and the
Mid-Atlantic. The good news is that it won`t be nearly as hot
and Heat Advisories are very unlikely. The bad news is it will
still be unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s
to mid-90s by Thursday afternoon. Thursday is currently forecast
to be the warmest of the week and the high temperatures will
gradually rise each day until then. A cold front is forecast to
approach the region towards this weekend which may be able to
bring temperatures down a little.

Key Message 2: Another round of showers and thunderstorms
possible later in the week.

A surface high pressure system will keep conditions dry for the
first half of this work week before a cold front brings another
round of precipitation by Thursday. The timing of the front`s
passage is a little uncertain and adds a monkey wrench into the
forecast. Since Thursday will be the warmest of the week, it may
be the most unstable and the front`s passage could coincide
with favorable timing for severe weather. The front also looks
to bring favorable wind shear conditions (25-35 knots) as its
associated 500mb trough moves through the region. Model guidance
has the southeastern ridge breaking up into two small pieces
with one remaining over the southeast and the other in the
southwest CONUS. This results in a trough covering the gap
between the mid-level highs and some models have vorticity and a
small shortwave making its way around the southeastern ridge
and northeastward towards the Mid-Altantic. This too will have
downstream effects on which parts of the forecast region will
receive precipitation and could delay the front`s passage. For
the time being, the severe threat looks to be low with
precipitation chances possible Thursday through Sunday. One
element of the forecast that has greater confidence is the
increase of moisture and PWATs by the weekend. With PWAT values
approaching into the 1.50-2.00 inch range, the concern for heavy
rainfall rates and flooding is present during the front`s
passage. So far, the upslope nature of the storms that will
likely accompany the front place the mountains of WV and
southwest VA at the greatest risk. Nevertheless, because of the
timing conditions, this forecast will likely need several
updates until the event`s arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions should persist through tonight and into Tuesday
across the Piedmont as high pressure builds southward along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. While the mountains
should remain mostly VFR, models indicate some MVFR stratus
could develop by early Tuesday morning at BLF. Patchy morning
river valley fog may also form at BCB and LWB. Once the low
clouds and fog vanish, VFR conditions should resume with a light
east to southeast breeze and a little cirrus.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place on Wednesday
with the exception of patchy morning fog in the river valleys.
Clouds should increase by Wednesday night as a cold front
approaches the Ohio River Valley. This front will slowly cross
the Appalachian Mountains during Thursday through Saturday to
provide scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR conditions
and heavy downpours may accompany any of the stronger storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...PW