433
FXUS61 KRNK 291737
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
137 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence in a building cold air damming scenario
over the weekend, along with widespread precipitation.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold
air wedge building in for the weekend.

1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into
early next week with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday,
with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend.

A broad sub-tropical ridge now over the Gulf coast states will
move east and build north into the interior Mid-Atlantic the
next couple of days. Our recent period of cooler and dry
northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds/WAA tomorrow
through Friday. This will mean an increase in temperatures, with
some locations reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s in the
Piedmont and around larger urban areas like Roanoke tomorrow
through Friday.

It looks like a brief CAD event develops for the weekend. Expect
Increasing clouds and rain chances to suppress temperatures on
Saturday, with frontal passages ushering in even cooler weather
for Sunday into Monday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. The wedge
looks to break down on Tuesday with sunshine
returning...however cooler temperatures remain.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends
Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain.

Cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest
winds and slowly increasing moisture through Friday. By then,
the sub-tropical ridge will be suppressed as a mean trough axis
approaches from the west. Most of the cyclonic energy will stay
to our north, but it will help drive a surface low and frontal
system into the area for the weekend. Several ensemble members
hold precip off until Friday evening, as it will take some time
for the atmosphere to regain moisture. Once it does, it looks
like some pretty significant rainfall totals could be realized
over the weekend. A lot of this rain will fall in showers and
storms associated with a couple cold frontal passages, with the
last one exiting to our south sometime Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We are seeing mostly VFR conditions with plenty of cumulus and
stratocumulus over northern and eastern parts of the forecast
area. The exceptions were BLF and LWB, which were still MVFR,
created from moisture traveling around the nor`easter off the
coast of Maine. We should VFR develop at those sites over the
next couple of hours.

We will see more stratus and fog overnight tonight into tomorrow
morning, with BLF and LWB likely seeing residual moisture turn
into LIFR/IFR stratus once again. Elsewhere, we will see a mix
of MVFR to LIFR fog and stratus, with less stratus and more fog
than we saw this morning. However, where more stratus was
expected, did not include nearly as much fog.

Winds remain calm to light and variable this afternoon into
Wednesday morning. Light WSW winds should develop for most
locations by tomorrow afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will bring mostly VFR conditions Wednesday through
Friday, except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By
Friday afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and
precipitation through the weekend, with low stratus, fog, and
moderate rain bringing MVFR or lower conditions for an extended
time.

NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the
Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more
variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE
Saturday night. Some gusts expected but nothing over 20 kts
except in thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH