487
FXUS61 KRNK 181806
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast Discussion Updated.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Small break in precipitation Wednesday before daily rain
showers and thunderstorms resume again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Small break in precipitation Wednesday before daily rain showers
and thunderstorms resume again.

Some light precipitation has been noticed on radar for the past few
hours in the Piedmont. These storms will struggle to form and
organize due to higher surface pressure following the weak cold
front and poor lapse rates of 4-5 C/km. Precipitation chances will
remain on the lower end for this part of the forecast area for the
rest of the afternoon and evening. The rest of the region is not
expected to have precipitation today.

Wednesday will be a nice break from all the rain as the center of a
surface high moves in and keeps all the precipitation chances very
low. This break is shortlived, however, as by Thursday an
approaching cold front will trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms for the area. In fact, it is possible that the diurnal
cycle of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may start again and
continue into early next week. At 500mb, a ridge strengthens and
entrenches itself over the southwestern CONUS while a relatively
weaker ridge center to its east moves into the Atlantic and over
Bermuda. This creates a void in between which is replaced with a
trough by this weekend. The models have some disagreement on how far
south the trough axis digs but there is consensus of it slowly
moving eastward as the southwestern ridge stretches into the Deep
South. The synoptic weather pattern by early next week is similar to
the past few weeks where shortwaves and vorticity maxima are
directed to the area by the ridge. The northwest orientation of the
mean winds signals the western mountains will receive the
greatest chances of precipitation and raises the risk of another
flood threat due to excessive rainfall. On a smaller note, the
Storm Prediction Center has noted that the northwesterly mid-
level winds during the weekend from the trough`s passage may
increase the likelihood of severe weather. The colder
temperatures aloft would assist in improving lapse rates but the
Center noted the timing of a cold front around the same time
period would make all the difference. For now, uncertainty is
too high of severe weather details for this weekend or for the
events early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be a relatively quiet day today following the passage of a
cold front. Precipitation chances are low for this afternoon and
evening and are concentrated in the Piedmont. Even so, it is not
likely there will be showers or thunderstorms in KLYH or KDAN. All
terminals are currently savoring VFR skies that will probably
repeat tomorrow afternoon. The only main changesin the weather
will be overnight fog at KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. KLWB will likely
have the lowest visibilities and ceilings and LIFR conditions
while KBLF and KBCB may only degrade to IFR. Fog development
will be supported by mostly clear skies and calm winds
overnight, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. When the
sun rises Wednesday morning, the fog will evaporate and all
terminals will resume VFR operations.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
The break in precipitation will not last as a cold front is forecast
to move through by Thursday and provide all airports another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The return of prevalent sub-
VFR conditions for all terminals is possible as the overall
weather pattern returns to daily chances of rain and storms for
the weekend and into early next week.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG