Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
473 FXUS61 KRNK 040825 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 425 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Raised POPs along and east of Blue Ridge for this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and drizzle along and east of Blue Ridge. 2) Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and drizzle along and east of Blue Ridge. Cold front which moved through the region Saturday is still providing for abundant cloud cover and cool temperatures. A wave of low pressure is rippling northeast along the front resulting in rain and drizzle this morning for areas primarily along and east of the Blue Ridge. Models have this precip ending by noon with clouds lingering into tonight and then clearing Monday. With the cool moist airmass in place do not expect much of a temperature rise today. May squeak out a 5 to 10 degree rise if rain exits the area as forecast...highs no warmer than the 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm for the second half of the week. High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Monday then pass overhead Tuesday. Wind flow should become northwesterly Monday scouring the cool wedge east of the Blue Ridge. As the weather turns drier, dewpoints should drop into the 40s. Low temperatures for Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning may support some patchy frost in the mountain valleys. Locations such as the Greenbrier River Valley and Burkes Garden may see lows in the mid to upper 30s. The models maintain high pressure over the region for the remainder of the week. As the airmass modifies temperatures should moderate for the second half of the week. Next opportunity for rain is Sunday and Monday Oct 11-12. NHC is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Southwest Gulf of America with increasing confidence this feature may develop into a cyclone in the next 7 days. The operational run of the GFS brings this feature north but confidence very low as to whether we will partake in any tropical moisture this far north latitude. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR to LIFR conditions are present across the forecast area with ridge obscurations. Little improvement is expected until the afternoon. Cigs are expected to remain under 1kft this morning with rain, drizzle and fog persisting along and east of the mountains through 15Z/11AM. After 15Z/11AM conditions will gradually improve as the rain and drizzle tapers off. Cigs may improve to MVFR but any clearing that does occur late in the afternoon may fill back in tonight in the form of fog and stratus. Winds today from the northeast or east...under 10 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Expect low cigs to stick around into Monday morning then clear as winds become northwesterly. VFR in high pressure follows thereafter through Friday with the exception of late night and early morning river valley fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...PM