832
FXUS61 KRNK 140637
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
237 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain within the region through
next week. Several disturbances will move along the boundary,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms through the end of next
week. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding, with
damaging wind gusts possible Sunday with the strongest storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) High confidence for additional rain in the form of showers
and thunderstorms beginning early afternoon through this
evening.

2) A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of SW VA beginning this
afternoon through tonight.

Bermuda high pressure remains entrenched to our southeast, but
waves of positive vorticity advection continued to move into
our area in SW flow aloft. At the surface, a wavy stationary
front was located over central and northern VA, with additional
outflow boundaries from previous convection and a surface trough
along the southern Appalachians, helping to focus rain. This
helped to create a situation where showers and storms moved over
the same areas over and over. This combined with high PWATs
(1.63 inches on tonight`s KRNK sounding, breaking the previous
record for this date/time of 1.59 inches), slow storm motion
(surface to 8 km movement was 10 kts), and deep warm cloud
layers had resulted in flash, areal, and urban and small stream
flooding.

The current activity will continue to weaken early this morning,
and expect a quiet period with few showers through about noon.
At that point, there will be a repeat of Friday, and an
increase in coverage through the evening as another significant
short wave approaches. Dew points will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s, and highs should warm into the 70s to upper 80s. This
will result in CAPEs between 1200 to 2000 J/kg in the east, and
we could see a few stronger storms with damaging winds. A
frontal boundary remains situated in the same region, and
expect an additional 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts. This will be on top of the 3 to 5 inches some areas
received Friday, with several instances of swift water rescues
being reported. The southern Blue Ridge is also an area of
concern, and we could see some 1-2 inches with locally higher
amounts there as well.

As such a Flood Watch has been issued to include parts of
central VA and the Southern Shenandoah Valley, where forcing
and convergence looks best. After the convection winds down,
expect another night of stratus, fog, and perhaps some drizzle
overnight tonight into Sunday morning with little change in
surface features.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Widespread storms expected Sunday, afternoon storms continue
into early next week.

2) Temperatures remain around normal through the period.

3) Flash flooding will continue to be a concern each day.

Sunday will be the most active day of the period, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area during
the afternoon hours. A stalled front to the north will sag down
into the area, potentially as a backdoor cold front, providing
surface forcing for storms to form. High dewpoints along with
warm temperatures will also aid in storm formation. An upper-
level shortwave trough will pass through the area, further
enhancing lift and slightly increasing shear, which may allow
some storms to become severe. SPC currently has the Piedmont in
a marginal risk Sunday, with the main threat as damaging winds.
Due to PW values near 2" forecast for Sunday, storms will
produce very efficient rainfall, and combined with slow
movement, could easily cause flash flooding, especially with the
heavy rainfall totals already seen across parts of our area in
the past week. The WPC has most of the area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall Sunday.

Storms will slowly dissipate after sunset Sunday evening, with
rain continuing into the night before all convection ceases by
Monday morning. Our area will continue to be in a wash, rinse,
repeat cycle, with daily afternoon storms continuing each
afternoon into the early overnight hours before dissipating.
Storm coverage is expected to be more scattered Monday and
Tuesday, as the upper-level flow will be mostly zonal with only
a few waves of increased vorticity aiding in thunderstorm
development. The exact location of the stalled front is
uncertain, but it will be lingering in our area or possibly even
sag to the south into NC, before rising back north Monday night
into Tuesday. If the front moves far enough south, Monday could
be mostly dry. Southwest flow returns Tuesday south of the
front, with afternoon thunderstorms again expected.

QPF totals for the period will be generally around 1-2" area-
wide, but where slow moving storms are the heaviest and train
over top of the other, amounts could be much higher. Some areas
could see those totals on Sunday alone. Regardless, heavy
rainfall will be the biggest impact of the period, with no
pattern change anticipated.

Temperatures will be around normal, with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s each day. If the backdoor front sags south with a
strong wedge behind it, highs may remain in the 70s area-wide on
Sunday. Lows each day will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily afternoon storms will continue through late week.

2) Temperatures steadily rise through the week, into the 90s for
the Piedmont mid to late week.

Storms continue to affect the area each afternoon Wednesday and
Thursday. An upper-level ridge to our south will limit the storm
coverage to more scattered each day. By late Thursday, a strong
cold front will approach the area with upper-level support. The
timing has sped up since yesterday, with storms moving into the
area Thursday evening. If this trend continues, severe weather
could become more of an issue if the storms arrive during peak
afternoon heating. More details will come into focus early next
week. The front moves through by midday Friday, with quieter
weather finally returning to the area for next weekend. Dew
points are also expected to be lower, with the front finally
breaking us out of the stagnant summer-time storm pattern.

Temperatures will be above average through the period. Highs are
expected to be in the 80s to low 90s ahead of the front, with no
real dropoff behind the front, only to the 80s. Lows will be in
the 60s each morning, though 50s may return west of the Blue
Ridge Friday night behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Conditions at area terminals are a mix of LIFR and VFR as
showers, fog, and stratus are affecting some but not all.
Showers are in the process of weakening, but may continue to
affect parts of the forecast area, mainly impacting LYH, BLF,
and perhaps BCB. By 8Z or so expect a lull in showers through
about 11 AM, when activity begins again in BLF and LWB and
spreads east. TSRA has been included for all TAF sites, with a
drop to MVFR in fog and stratus expected for most TAF sites
after 00Z as rain diminishes. LWB will see another precipitous
drop to LIFR around 15/5Z in fog and stratus. Light and
variable winds this morning become WSW at 5 to 10 kts this
afternoon and evening before dropping back to calm to light and
variable after 15/00Z.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sunday will again see scattered to widespread showers/storms,
mainly during the afternoon, as an upper-level trough moves
over the area. When impacted by storms, terminals will drop to
sub-VFR flight conditions until they pass. A few hours after
sunset storms will weaken and eventually dissipate overnight,
with VFR conditions for some, but the mountain terminals
remaining MVFR or lower in fog and stratus through the morning.
This pattern remains in place through midweek, with afternoon
and evening storm chances each day bringing sub-VFR conditions
when over any terminal.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ024-035-045>047-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH