Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
373 FXUS61 KRNK 311107 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 707 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure, situated across the Mid-Atlantic and wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians, will remain in place early into the week, with a cool northeasterly windflow maintaining temperatures that are some 5 to 8 degrees below normal. This high pressure will slide east during the middle of the week, allowing for a modest warmup as winds shift more from the south. A cold front will approach toward the end of the workweek, bringing a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than those of Saturday as northeasterly windflow becomes established. 2) Widely scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across the mountains. Only very modest adjustments to the forecast made this morning, mainly for area temperatures and cloud cover. Surface observations indicate weak high pressure wedging southward across the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will only become more established as the day progresses, with the northeasterly windflow supporting afternoon temperatures that will be a few degrees cooler than those observed on Saturday afternoon, and 7 to 10 degrees below normal for late August. Will be keeping an eye out for the development of widely scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms developing across the mountains during the afternoon and evening as a weak upper level disturbance passes overhead. Most of this activity will fade toward sunset with the loss of heating, but may still see isolated showers linger into early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter inch, with any rain proving beneficial given an August with rainfall totals that have been below normal for many. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... Key Points: 1) Slightly cooler than normal temperatures. 2) Rain chances increase across the mountains Tuesday. On Monday, a wedge of high pressure will continue to anchor itself over the mountains of Southwest Virginia, Northwest North Carolina, and Southeast West Virginia. A dry, northeasterly flow will dominate most of the region, ensuring mostly clear skies and low humidity. Residents can expect pleasant conditions with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s across the mountains and mid to upper 70s in the foothills and Piedmont. However, in northwest North Carolina, the flow will shift to an easterly direction. This slight change will bring a touch more moisture to the air, creating more clouds than sun. By Tuesday, the wedge will begin to erode, particularly across the mountains. A weak shortwave will pass to the west, but it will be close enough to bring increased cloudiness and a slight chance of showers to the mountains. High temperatures across the mountains will range into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, in the foothills and Piedmont, the weather will remain warmer. These areas will see high temperatures climb to the upper 70s, as they`ll be on the warmer side of the passing system, avoiding the cooler, wetter conditions affecting the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Key Points: 1) Showers likely Wednesday and Thursday. 2) Looking cold and dry next weekend. On Wednesday, an expansive upper-level trough will begin to deepen, stretching its influence from the Midwest all the way into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of this approaching trough, a slow- moving shortwave and a warm front will track into our region. This will usher in a new weather pattern, with showers developing and becoming more likely, especially for locations along and to the west of the Blue Ridge. The main event of the week will arrive on Thursday as a cold front tracks across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes. The front`s momentum will then stall, likely settling directly across the spine of the mountains and remaining in place into Friday. This stationary boundary will be a focus for continued cloudiness and a chance of lingering showers into Friday. As we look toward the upcoming weekend, a large, dry high- pressure system will build in behind the cold front. This will force the front further east, finally bringing an end to the unsettled weather. The region can look forward to a return to clear skies and more comfortable conditions, setting the stage for a beautiful and dry end to the week and the start of the next weekend. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Surface observations indicate mainly VFR conditions this morning under broken ceilings with bases in the 4kft to 8kft range that have prevented the formation of widespread valley fog. Weak high pressure continues to wedge southward across the Mid- Atlantic, and will only become more established as the day progresses, with northeasterly windflow persisting through the 31/12Z TAF period. Gusts will generally be 10kts to 15kts during the afternoon and will diminish by early this evening. Will be keeping an eye out for the development of widely scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms developing across the mountains during this afternoon and evening. Mention of VCSH is included in the TAF for both KBLF and KLWB, but not enough confidence in location or coverage of rainfall otherwise. Most of this activity will fade toward sunset with the loss of heating, but may still see isolated showers linger into early Monday morning. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected to remain predominant through the early half of the week, though localized MVFR/IFR conditions may develop due to early morning fog and localized showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach toward the end of the workweek, bringing a chance of better organized showers and a few thunderstorms for Thursday and possibly Friday, as well as sub-VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...NF