Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
092 FXUS61 KRNK 161816 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 216 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WV AND VA... Scattered strong to severe storm chances, with flash flooding threat across areas along and north of I-64 are expected today and Monday, with dry conditions returning to the area through the middle of the work week. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Chances for strong storms and flash flooding today and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Chances for strong storms and flash flooding today and Monday. WNW flow remains over the Mid Atlantic region through Monday night, then becomes more westerly and cyclonic for the remainder of the week as a mean trough digs south into the area. Within this flow, a number of perturbations moving through will help augment an unstable air mass at the surface, triggering several rounds of convection. We have already seen the remnants of one MCS moving through parts of WV, VA, and NC this morning and afternoon. Storms were also being aided by a warm front snaking through the forecast area. Additional showers and storms may fire along the Blue Ridge and impact the Piedmont this afternoon, however some of that area has been worked over from this morning`s convection. So after a break for the mountains, another complex of storms is expected to dive towards WV and southwest VA after 7 PM through about midnight. This cluster was already developing in the OH Valley early this afternoon in association with an MCV. Shear values will support clusters of multicells and perhaps a supercell or two. Most concerning will be the potential for wet microbursts and flash flooding, with PWATs in the 1.8 to 2.2 inches range. We have already seen flash flooding today in Greenbrier and Summers Counties, and a Flood Watch has been issued for parts of SE WV and along the WV/VA border where FFG values are less than 1.50 inches for 1 hour. There is also an isolated tornado threat along the northward lifting warm front. This includes SE WV and parts of SW and west central VA where the supercell composite value hovers around 2 to 4 on the SPC mesoanalysis page, and where LCL heights are 500 to 750 meters AGL. A trailing cold front/frontal fracture pushes into the region tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing additional showers and storms to mainly the western mountains, although chances expand to the Piedmont by late afternoon into the evening. The severe weather threat should have shifted to be more across SW VA and NE NC by tomorrow as the cold front moves south. This front will also usher in a drier airmass by Tuesday, which will be maintained across the region through the middle of the week. Rain chances don`t look to return until Thursday, with the passage of another cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions have developed at most terminals across the area, with only LWB still hanging onto MVFR ceilings. While VFR conditions are anticipated for a majority of the TAF period, any SHRA/TSRA will lower conditions to IFR TO MVFR. Current activity is just pushing south of DAN. Additional showers and storms moving out of the OH Valley after 00Z will bring lower conditions again tonight, affecting some TAF sites through 06Z. After that, we will see widespread fog with some of it dense, and low ceilings lingering west of I-81. This should scatter/ lift out slowly Monday morning. Light 5 to 10 knot SSW winds today will continue with a few gusts to 15 to 20 kts through tonight. Winds become more WNW tomorrow as the cold front moves through, with some higher 20 to 25 knot gusts for the ridges. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Pattern continues with chances for storms Monday night, then dry for Tuesday/Wednesday. Chances of rain and storms return Thursday and Friday with another cold frontal passage. Mainly VFR outside of any storms and late night fog/stratus. && .HYDROLOGY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WV AND VA...... An active upper level pattern will combine with surface boundaries and adequate instability to produce several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon through Monday night. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of SE WV and along the WV/VA border where FFG values are less than 1.50 inches for 1 hour. Additional rainfall will arrive tonight, on top of the rain that has already fallen today. We have already received reports of flash flooding in Greenbrier and Summers Counties today. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch through late Monday night for VAZ019-020. NC...None. WV...Flood Watch through late Monday night for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH HYDROLOGY...SH