Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
373 FXUS61 KRNK 022315 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 615 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Evening aviation updated. Next chance for rain is late Wednesday and into Thursday, but rainfall amounts continue to trend downward. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably mild through the week with a chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. 2) Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through the week with a chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. An expansive area of offshore high pressure will dominate the weather through mid-week, delivering an unseasonably warm and spring-like stretch of early November weather. Clockwise winds around the high will support warm air advection, temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees above the seasonal norm...highs in the 70s with some Piedmont locations approaching 80 by Wednesday. Dewpoints will also be on the rise with readings in the 50s to lower 60s and supporting mild overnight temperatures as well. In general, conditions will feel notably pleasant if you like warmth instead of cool and crisp. As for rain chances, Low pressure will move through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region by Thursday, with the accompanying surface front bringing a chance of rain showers to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have continued to back off on precipitation coverage, QPF trending lower. From what we are seeing, the best chance for showers will be along and west of the Blue Ridge (amounts 0.25 to 0.50), moisture along the front thinning as it crosses the mountains and leaving areas east of the Blue Ridge with less than a quarter of an inch of wetting. May see some lingering upslope showers along the western slopes through Saturday given persistent NW flow. Otherwise, quiet weather once again returns through the remainder of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns this weekend. Thursday`s frontal passage will begin transition to lower temperatures for the weekend, readings closer to normal for Saturday and Sunday. Models are advertising a clipper-like system to barrel through the region late Sunday or Monday...this feature originating from the northern stream and cooler northern latitudes. Depending on its track it may draw down temperatures even further for Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a few days of cooler than normal weather, a taste of what November should be like... cool and crisp. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Drier air has moved into the region, causing VFR flight conditions to continue. Winds are generally from the southeast, and will remain light through the TAF period with maximum wind gusts up to 15 mph during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Winds trend towards light and variable to calm overnight. VFR will continue through tonight, with no fog expected thanks to the drier air in place. Skies remain mostly clear tonight with just some 150-250 AGL passing cirrus. Skies will be mainly clear again on Tuesday, though high clouds may become BKN near DAN around midday. Overall, ideal flight conditions will remain in place though the end of the TAF period. Confidence in the above forecast is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Quiet weather and VFR flight conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog may be possible Wednesday morning in the mountains as moisture increases across the area, with LWB the most likely terminal impacted. A frontal boundary moves into the area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall and likely sub-VFR flight conditions. Rain chances linger behind the front on Friday, keeping a chance of sub-VFR conditions around before clearing back out for the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/SH AVIATION...JCB/SH