620
FXUS61 KRNK 051931
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
231 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

No significant changes to the forecast. Showers lingering into
Friday with rumble of thunder possible across the Piedmont.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers tonight with a chance of thunderstorms
over the Piedmont.

2) Clearing for the weekend; turning breezy and cooler.

3) Mainly dry next week with moderating temperatures before late
week tumble.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers tonight with a chance of
thunderstorms over the Piedmont.

Surface cold front along the western slopes of the Appalachians
will slowly move east tonight. A wave of low pressure is
forecast to develop along the front late tonight and move up
through the Piedmont and Tidewater areas Friday before clearing
the coast Friday night.

Rainfall amounts tonight and Friday are expected to range from
0.2 to 0.5 along and east of Highway 29 with little or no
measurable rain west of the Blue Ridge.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Clearing for the weekend; turning breezy and
cooler.

Lingering upper level trough may produce cloudiness over WV and
the VA Highlands into the weekend with some sprinkles or
flurries, but for the most part expecting a drying trend over
the weekend and into next week. Winds will also increase as
cooler air advects into the region Friday night.

In general expecting near normal temperatures this weekend then
moderating early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Mainly dry next week with moderating
temperatures before late week tumble.

Model ensembles are in general agreement for dry conditions next
week and moderating temperatures. There are some differences
with respect to a southern stream feature that may pass well
south of the area but it looks as though it will remain
suppressed to along the Gulf coast with cloud/rain impacts to
South Texas and across the Gulf towards Florida. Late in the
week a northern stream trough is progged to drop south from
Canada, passing over the Great Lakes. Track of this feature may
bring a shot of cold air to our region by the following
weekend...but no significant QPF is advertised attm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will make gradual progression across the region from
west to east late this afternoon through early Friday morning. Along
and in advance of the front, expect ceilings primarily within the
IFR/MVFR range with a few pockets of LIFR. Additionally, light rain,
light rain showers, and drizzle all will be possible in advance of
the front. Currently the best coverage is centered along a KTNB-KBCB-
KLWB line. Look for this best concentration of coverage to progress
to the east this evening and overnight. The front is expected to
stall over or just east of the far eastern portion of the forecast
area on Friday, so expect a continuation of precipitation in areas
generally along and east of a KSIF-KLYH line through the morning
hours.

West of the front, ceilings will gradually improve to VFR, and winds
will shift northwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Friday afternoon and evening the front will still be making a
gradual departure to the east. Precipitation will end and ceilings
improve to VFR during the early to mid afternoon. Northwest winds
will increase a bit during the day, and become gusty. This
prevailing northwest (upslope) flow is expected to yield stratocu
development over portions of southeast West Virginia, with some
pockets of MVFR ceilings and some light rain showers.

On Saturday the northwest flow increases such surface gusts may
reach 20 to 25 kts over the mountains and 15 to 20 kts over the
Piedmont.

Over the weekend into early next week, high pressure is expected to
become centered over the southern US. A series of reinforcing cold
fronts are expected to cross the area, but their associated better
energy and moisture is expected to remain north of the area, thus
precipitation-free for our region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS