Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
565 FXUS61 KRNK 301038 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 638 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend begins today and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. 1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into early next week with increasing chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend begins today and peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The remnants of hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific are currently merging with an upper level trough across the Desert Southwest states. As this merging continues to progress eastward into west Texas on Wednesday and Thursday, upper level ridging is expected to build over the southeast states, with the northern periphery likely across the Ohio valley and Mid- Atlantic states region. This will allow for increasing temperatures through Friday before the arrival of a cold front pushes into the region late on Friday. The aforementioned upper level trough looks to stretched out over the upper level ridge over the Southeast, and merge with a shortwave trough that is progged to push east through the northern Great Lakes region by late Friday. Behind this cold front, surface high pressure is expected to slide from the northern Great lakes region into the Northeast, which will briefly lead to cold air wedging developing over VA/NC late Saturday and Sunday. This will dramatically cool temperatures areawide back to normal or just below normal for the weekend. The possibility of a secondary shortwave trough and stronger cold front look to push into the region late Monday into Tuesday, which looks to reinforce the cold air and cold air wedge across the region early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. With the approach of a cold front on Friday night, and moisture from the remnants from Polo overriding the front, the region looks to be in store for a couple days of cool and rainy conditions through the weekend. Specifics on rainfall totals are still uncertain at this time, as ensemble model guidance has shifted towards the surface high pressure and dry air aloft inhibiting rainfall production across the area. The cutoff line of dry vs moist air is quite evident and sharp, and the placement of this line as the frontal boundary stalls will play a great role in how much precipitation the area sees over the weekend. If this line remains across northern VA, much of the area will see beneficial rainfall; however, if this line of drier air penetrates further south beyond the I-64 corridor, then much of the area will miss out on any heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs have expanded to all terminals this morning except BLF. These restrictions will likely lift to VFR levels in the 12-14 UTC timeframe. Outside of these possible restrictions, this morning, VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals, except LWB where another morning of LIFR VSBYs looks likely on Thursday. Winds will remain calm through day break, then become southerly/southwesterly by the mid morning hours at all terminals. Winds should remain around 5 knots or less through the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions through Friday, except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By Friday afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation through the weekend, with low stratus, fog, and moderate rain brings periods MVFR or lower conditions, especially Saturday and Sunday. NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE Saturday night. Some gusts expected but nothing over 20 kts except in thunderstorms. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS/EB