Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
169 FXUS61 KRNK 010009 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 809 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure, situated across the Mid-Atlantic and wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians, will remain in place early into the week, with a cool northeasterly windflow maintaining temperatures that are some 5 to 8 degrees below normal. This high pressure system will slide east during the middle of the week, allowing for a modest warmup as winds shifts more to the south. A cold front will approach toward the end of the work week, bringing a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... Convection is beginning to wane and will continue to do so due to loss of daytime heating. Overnight, clouds should clear and lows again will be in the 50s and possibly a few upper 40s. May have a little more valley fog during the early morning hours because of increased moisture from afternoon rain. As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Clearing tonight, with isolated showers west of the Blue Ridge ending. 2) Cool and dry for Labor Day. The main weather features today include an upper level trough centered over New England, with its cyclonic influence reaching to the Gulf coast. At the surface, weak surface wedging was nosing in along the Appalachians. While moisture is relatively low, there should be enough of it combined with convergence along the terrain and upper level energy to support light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, mainly for the Blue Ridge westward. Any activity will be weak and brief. ENE flow will keep cloudy skies over the area until this evening, when clearing begins into the overnight hours. The loss of daytime instability will cause any convection to diminish after sunset. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the mountains and foothills, while low to mid 50s are forecast for the Piedmont, giving this area another taste of cooler weather. Larger dew point depressions should keep much fog from forming overnight, but a few high and mid clouds may linger. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Cool, fall-like temperatures persist 2) Quiet again to start the workweek, rain picks up Wednesday By Monday, a wedge will be well entrenched against the mountains, and a mid-level trough will cover the eastern seaboard. The high causing the wedge will sink south before it begins to break down late on Tuesday. This southward wobble ought to induce enough subsidence over us that despite the troughing, we won`t receive rain on Monday. Tuesday will introduce a small chance of rain in the far western portion of the CWA. A shortwave moving into the weakening wedge on Wednesday will begin to spread rain chances from western mountains east towards the Blue Ridge. Temperatures will remain under the normal to kick off meteorological fall. Highs range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Showers and storms late week Directly behind a shortwave and associated shower activity on Wednesday comes a larger, well defined cold front which will bring widespread storms to the area on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures still remain below normal, with a slight warm spike on Thursday ahead of the cold front. The front will slow but allow for high pressure to move into our area behind it. Clear skies and cool conditions are expected to return this weekend in the post-frontal environment. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... Weak high pressure continues to wedge across the Mid-Atlantic, with northeasterly flow generally less than 5 knots through the period. May see isolated gusts in the 8 to 13 kt range during the afternoon before they diminish late evening on Monday. Showers across the mountains will continue to decrease and conditions should be dry overnight. Some increased chances of valley fog formation due to recent rain showers this afternoon. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected to remain predominant through the first half of the week, though localized MVFR/IFR conditions may develop due to early morning fog and localized showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach toward the end of the work week, bringing a chance of better organized showers and a few thunderstorms for Thursday and possibly Friday, as well as sub-VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...BMG/SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...BMG/NF/SH