876
FXUS61 KRNK 030828
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
428 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Widespread cloud cover the entire area through the weekend with
variable amounts of rainfall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of rain today and Sunday.

2) Seasonally cool air arrives today and persists through next
week...no more 85 to 90 degree weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain today and Sunday.

Key word is periods. It will not rain the entire time nor
everywhere at the same time this weekend. Surface front will
move from north to south through the forecast area today with
band of frontal rain with embedded heavier showers. Primary
focus for the steadier rainfall this morning will be across the
Highway 81 and 460 corridors with amounts of 0.25 to 0.75.
Front will then sag south into the Carolinas later in the day
with daytime heating resulting in the activity becoming more
showery in nature and more hit/miss with respect to rainfall
along and south of the VA/NC border...amounts 0.25 or less,
although can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm producing more.

By tonight the front will be south of the forecast area with
lull in the precipitation production, but remaining overcast. A
wave of low pressure is expected to move east along the front
early Sunday and this may bring a second round of rain and drizzle
across parts of the forecast area for Sunday, favoring the
southern and eastern CWA or areas along and east of the Blue
Ridge for the steadier rainfall...QPF of 0.10 to 0.25.

When overlapping the two rain forecast footprints, today and
Sunday, there will likely be some folks that get little or no
meaningful rainfall...basically the same area that has been
drought stricken for months...the piedmont. The outlook for next
week is bleak with another string of dry days Monday through
Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonally cool air arrives today and persists
through next week... no more 85 to near 90 degree weather.

Passage of a cold front today will introduce cooler
temperatures. The cool down will be more in line with where we
should be for October. Dewpoints will also trend lower, so the
air will have a chill to it at night. Once we clear out behind
the front Monday, look for a broader swing in daytime vs
nighttime temperatures...60s and 70s during the day vs 40s at
night, with potential to dip into the 30s in the mountain
valleys which may promote some patchy frost.

In general looking at a 5 day stretch of pleasant fall weather
starting Monday. Dewpoints should begin to creep back up next
weekend ahead of another front. Until then the forecast looks
dry and seasonal for the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate this morning as a
cold front works its way from north to south across the area.
Rain associated with the front will saturate the near ground
environment causing a layer of stratus to form with cigs under
1000 feet. Visibilities will be variable through the day due to
the rain.

In general expecting IFR/LIFR conditions over the mountains
through the remainder of the weekend where cigs will result in
ridge obscurations. MVFR conditions will exist east of the
mountains today with transition to IFR tonight.

Winds will be from the northeast today. Gusts reaching up to 20
knots are possible, particularly along and east of the Blue
Ridge this morning. Lynchburg will experience the strongest and
most persistent winds owing to the development of a low-level
barrier jet along the eastern side of the mountains as the cool
northeast wedge settles in.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Low stratus, fog, drizzle, and light to moderate rain at times
will bring MVFR or lower conditions through Monday morning. VFR
in high pressure follows thereafter through Wednesday with the
exception of late night and early morning river valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM