079
FXUS61 KRNK 121901
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will continue to
lead to a gradual warming of temperatures through the weekend,
with Saturday and Sunday expected to be the warmest days of the
week. Light rain showers look possible Friday night through
Sunday for mountain locations; however, chances remain low
overall. While dry conditions are expected throughout the week,
gusty winds today look to diminish through the end of the work
week before building again on Sunday.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Mountain cirrus clouds may lead to cloudy conditions across
   the Piedmont on Thursday.

2) Temperatures continue their gradual warming trend.

Surface high pressure looks to slide north on Thursday out of
the deep south, and into eastern Tennessee. With high pressure
moving closer in proximity to the region, pressure gradient
winds should relax some throughout the day on Thursday. The
westerly 40-50 knot 850mb jet that was also in place over the
region today is also expected diminish by tomorrow. This will
lead to weaker winds aloft that could possibly mix down to the
surface during peak mixing hours in the afternoon. While winds
look to diminish some, some mountain induced cirrus look to
develop across the NC/VA piedmonts on Thursday. This may lead to
broken to overcast cloud cover through the afternoon and evening
across these aforementioned areas, and subsequently cooler
temperatures with less overall unimpeded sunlight. Nevertheless,
temperatures on Thursday look to climb into the low 60s east of
the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 50s west of the Blue Ridge.

While winds look to diminish Thursday, RH values will continue
to remain low through the afternoon. This may lead to another
day of enhanced fire danger; however, conditions are not as
favorable as they are today across the region.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and dry weather for the most part into the weekend

Ridging and surface high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic
for the latter half of this week. The warmer air and subsidence
resulting from this pattern provide high confidence that the
forecast will remain dry through the end of the week. The exception
is a weak warm front progged to meander through the southern
Appalachians late Friday and into Saturday. This forcing may be
enough to induce isolated showers in the far southeastern WV
mountains or far western VA. Amounts would be very light and
restricted to high elevation locations. As that front clears the
area, dry conditions are expected to continue through Saturday ahead
of another stronger front that looks to arrive late in the weekend.

Temperatures will be mild and generally above average, with highs in
the 60s, and even low 70s in the Piedmont and Southside.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Above normal temperatures on Sunday with near normal readings
Monday through Wednesday.
2. Morning showers in the west on Sunday, dry Monday.
3. Next notable weather system to impact the region somewhere in the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

A look a the NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows for
Sunday/Sunday night, an amplified trough over eastern Canada, nearly
zonal flow across our region, and a shortwave trough over the Central
Plains states. Additionally, a shortwave trough was moving onshore
the Pacific Northwest. For Monday/Monday night, the amplified trough
over eastern Canada shows little movement. The shortwave trough over
the Central Plains states heads east into mid-Mississippi Valley.
The shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest coast moves more
onshore. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the shortwave trough over the
mid-Mississippi Valley heads northeast and merges with the stronger
trough over eastern Canada. A shortwave ridge builds into the
Mississippi Valley. The Pacific Northwest trough amplifies, heads
east, and by the evening its axis extends from MT to CA. For
Wednesday, the shortwave ridge over the Mississippi Valley moves
east and reaches our region by the early evening. The longwave
trough in the west shows signs of its northern extent progressing
east faster than its southern half.

At the surface for Sunday/Sunday night, low pressure is expected to
be situated over southern Quebec, with an associated cold front
trailing southwest into Central Plains states. High pressure will be
centered over the western Atlantic of the Florida coast. For
Monday/Monday night, the Canadian low deepens, moves east, and is
situated over the Canadian Maritimes by the evening hours. Its
associated cold front will be trailing southwest through the
western Atlantic off the New England coast, before continuing
southwest across the mid-Atlatnic region around the evening hours.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the center of high pressure builds into
western Ontario with its associated ridge axis extending south into
the mid-Mississippi Valley. While not well resolved in the ensemble
mean, there is a hit of a weak area of low pressure over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. For Wednesday, the ridge over the Mississippi
Valley washes out a bit as it progresses east. Likewise with the
potential low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Quite a variety in
the individual members of the ensemble looks to be muddying the
water during the Tuesday into Wednesday time period in the forecast
over the eastern third of CONUS.

A look at the 12 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday ranging from +2C to +5C, north
to south, across the area. For Monday, values trend high to the +2C
to +6C range, ne-sw. Fro Tuesday, the temperatures gradient relaxes
a bit, with a narrower +4C to +5C range, n-s. For Wednesday,
temperatures trend higher to the +5C to +7C range, n-s.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. About the
only this with at least moderate confidence during this portion of
the forecast is Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the four, pre
cold frontal passage. Post cold front, Monday through Wednesday will
have temperatures near normal for this time of year. The cold front
may continue to bring showers to western parts of the region Sunday
morning. Little activity is expected east of the Blue Ridge. By
Monday, the next cold front to impact our region looks on the dry
side. Tuesday into Wednesday, question marks continue in terms of
the path/timing of the system and the degree high pressure may
curtail the precipitation chances.

Confidence of on Sunday and Monday is moderate, but low Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR through the 24 hour
valid TAF. Main concern is the wind with potential for LLWS
tonight as surface winds relax, but low level winds remain
elevated. This may lead to moderate to locally severe
mechanical turbulence from the cross barrier wind flow across
the Appalachians once the wind at the surface starts to relax
some after sunset. Surface wind gusts on Thursday look to
diminish some, but may still be elevated at around 15-20 knots
during the morning hours shortly after sunset as winds mix down
to the surface once again.


Forecast confidence is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure moves overhead promoting clear to partly cloudy
VFR skies on Friday. Conditions should be mainly VFR Friday and
Saturday, but a few MVFR ceilings and/or showers may move into
BLF and LWB during that time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again Thursday.

The combination of wind and low humidity will result in
good drying conditions. In spite of recent precipitation, leaf
litter will dry quickly, becoming crunchy and receptive to fire.

Temperatures will trend warmer, and this combined with gusty
west winds and low humidity will contribute to an increase in
fire danger across the region, but especially along and east of
the Blue Ridge where temperatures will be the warmest. Wind
gusts of 15 to 25 mph will be common Thursday. Humidity
recovery tonight will be relatively poor along the ridgetops.

Thursday remains a concern, with the peak potential for fire
concerns during the afternoon when the vapor pressure deficits
are the highest. Winds are forecast to diminish by Friday,
lessening the effects of fire spread. However, Friday and into
the upcoming weekend are expected to be warmer than normal with
highs in the 60s/70s, favoring good burning conditions.

Little or no measurable rain is expected until next week. There
is a slight chance of showers across the mountains this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...PM