Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
587 FXUS61 KRNK 190725 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front today will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area today, with the threat for severe wind and hail expected with the strongest storms that develop. In the wake of this cold front, dry weather returns to the region, with a gradual warm up through the weekend to well above average temperatures forecast across the region with an upper level ridge building over the eastern conus through next week. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid-week next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Slight Risk for severe storms Today. The axis of an upper level trough is currently centered over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This upper level trough is expected to push east throughout the day today. An associated cold front is currently analyzed across Indiana and western Kentucky, and will similarly push east throughout the day, which combined with forcing for ascent aloft due to the aforementioned upper level trough will lead to widespread severe thunderstorms development during the early afternoon hours. As storms develop, the environment is expected to be favorable for production of severe thunderstorms that will be able to produce strong damaging wind gusts and hail. There is a small tornado threat predominantly north of the I-64 corridor in Virginia. With SBCAPE values surging to around 1500-2000 J/Kg thanks to dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area combined with deep layer shear in the 0-6km layer around 30 knots, storm mode will favor multicellular clusters and a few supercell thunderstorms across the area. DCAPE values similarly can`t be overlooked, with values in the 800-1000 J/Kg range, which will only increase the severe wind threat exponentially across the area. This will lead to possible downed trees and power poles, which can cause power outages. Not only will winds be strong with these thunderstorms, but the potential for severe hail is also expected given these aforementioned instability and bulk shear levels. Fortunately, widespread flash flooding potential is not expected; however, localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out with PWATs ahead of this cold front remaining in the 1.5-1.8 inch range. This could lead to heavy rain rates in the 1-3 inch per our range leading to rapid increases on local streams and ponding of water. Storm motion looks to be progressive, which will fortunately lower the overall flash flood threat. Outside of the severe weather threat today, temperatures will generally climb to near 90 east of the Blue Ridge, and into the mid 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge. Lows tonight post cold frontal passage look to drop into the low to mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 50s to low 60s west of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday... Key Points: - Quiet, dry and hot weather expected this weekend. Surface high pressure will settle over the area Friday. Under abundant sunshine, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to upper 80s. These temperatures are 2F-4F warmer than normal. There will be a noticeable drop in relative humidities with dew points in the 50s. Over the weekend, an upper level ridge will move from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This dome of high pressure will have temperatures running 8F-12F warmer than normal. Dew points will also increase into the 60s with afternoon heat indices ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s.&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... Key Point: - Excessive Heat headline likely An upper level ridge will be centered over the OH/TN Valleys Monday and Tuesday, then drifts over VA/NC Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures will run 10F-15F warmer than normal under this heat dome. With temperatures peaking from the upper 80s to upper 90s and dew points creeping up into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s across the mountains and above 100F in the foothills and Piedmont each afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday... Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period; however, with an approaching/passing cold front today may bring brief periods of MVFR to LIFR restrictions in and around shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening at all terminals. Southwest winds will also pick up during the late morning hours to all terminals, with gusts of 20-25 knots expected until the late evening hours. Winds behind the frontal passage will transition to a more westerly/southwesterly flow; however, gusts should diminish around 00 UTC. With westerly winds expected post frontal, and some lingering moisture in the low and mid levels, some MVFR CIGs look to develop at BLF and LWB towards the end of this TAF period just before 06 UTC. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF sites through the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will build across the region Friday and through the weekend, so anticipating mainly VFR conditions from Friday through Monday, outside any late night and early morning mountain valley fog at LWB/BCB. The next rain chances look to return late Tuesday, which could return restrictions back to the area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...EB