185
FXUS61 KRNK 081819
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and
evening through the week. While no severe weather is expected,
urban and small stream flooding is possible. Repeated rainfall
will make localized flash flooding a bigger concern as the week
progresses.

Oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity is expected for the
Piedmont along with urban areas including Roanoke for the end of
the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1: Afternoon/evening showers and storms for much of this week.
Repeated rainfall will make localized flash flooding a bigger
concern as the week progresses.

2: Warm temperatures continue, with well above normal readings for
the Piedmont and urban areas including Roanoke, especially next
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Afternoon/evening showers and storms for much of
this week. Repeated rainfall will make localized flash flooding
a bigger concern as the week progresses.

Surface high pressure off the New England coast was keeping a
steady easterly flow over much of the area. To the east, low
pressure was organizing over the TN Valley, driven by several
strong disturbances aloft. In between these two features, a
stationary front remained stalled over SW VA, and was a
convergence zone for high PWAT air. The front will help
trigger/focus showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over our
western mountains and into the southern Blue Ridge. After that,
the first short wave will move east, spreading showers and
thunderstorms across the area Tuesday and Tuesday evening as
even more short wave energy crosses the area.

The moist and conditionally unstable airmass then looks to
remain in place throughout the rest of the work week allowing
for mainly daily diurnally driven convection as much of the
upper dynamics stay well north of the area. This summer-like
regime doesn`t look like it breaks until possibly the weekend
if the upper wave energy can translate a frontal passage but
even that looks iffy this far out. At this point severe weather
looks unlikely with only marginal instability to work with, but
we could see some urban/small stream and eventually flash
flooding as the week progresses and total rainfall amounts
increase each day.


Key Message 2: Warm temperatures continue, with well above normal
readings for the Piedmont and urban areas including Roanoke,
especially next Thursday and Friday.

For Thursday and Friday the Piedmont and Roanoke areas could
have daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s and when combined
with the high dewpts/humidity the resultant heat indices could
make it into the low 100s. For now it looks to be a bit shy of
heat advisory criteria but will still be very dangerous for
anyone outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Currently VFR for all terminals. Clouds will increase and
lower after 21Z as a wave of low pressure approaches from the
west. MVFR cloud bases are expected to develop tonight with MVFR
cigs anticipated along the spine of the Blue Ridge after
midnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Widespread convection continues into Tuesday night before
waning after 02Z with the loss of daytime heating. Still expect
some lingering showers and perhaps in isolated storm for the
western mountains and along the WV/VA border, mainly impacting
BLF and LWB. Elsewhere sub-VFR conditions linger overnight
Tuesday night into early Wednesday with perhaps drizzle and fog.


Multiple surface fronts along with persistent mid and upper
level energy aloft will interact with instability to produce
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day for the
foreseeable future. Accompanying this will be widespread sub-
VFR ceilings and visibilities at times in rain, thunderstorms,
fog, and drizzle.

S winds Tuesday night become more WSW by Wednesday. The
direction becomes more WNW for Thursday. Should see daily gusts
in the 12 to 25 knot range in the afternoon in the mountains,
with lower speeds over the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH