094
FXUS61 KRNK 110526
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
126 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will keep us dry into the weekend
and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Fair weather aside from clouds over the Piedmont.

Keeping the forecast dry with some periods of clouds and
possibly fog this morning in the Piedmont. Some high-res data
try to spit out some light showers/sprinkles east of
Lynchburg/Danville today into tonight but the overall
confidence is very low given trends.

After a cool start to the morning especially in the mountains,
should see temperatures rise into the 70s areawide, and pass the
80 degree mark in the piedmont/foothills.

Tonight, similar to this morning, some clouds in the piedmont
due to an easterly flow but overall mostly clear elsewhere with
lows in the mid 40s to near 50 west, to lower to mid 50s east.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Stretch of dry and quiet weather with warm afternoons and cool
mornings continues.

Overall, the short term forecast period will remain very quiet, as
high pressure holds fast over the Mid Atlantic, and wedges against
the mountains. A 500mb ridge will develop over the central US by the
end of the work week, and start to expand eastward, pushing the
trough farther east. Increasing heights over the area will start
temperatures on a slight warming trend, though calm winds and clear
skies overnight will lead to good radiational cooling, and cool
nights for the area. Easterly onshore flow will advect some moisture
in from the Atlantic, and so will see dewpoints trend upward a few
degrees, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, subsidence from
the high will keep precipitation chances minimal through the period.
Morning fog in the valleys and along the rivers will be possible
each morning, mixing out after the inversion breaks.

Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area,
hovering right around to up to 3 degrees above seasonal normals. Low
temperatures will range from the low 40s to mid 50s, warmer across
the Piedmont, and the coolest temperatures in the elevated mountain
valleys. Burkes Garden VA has been in the low 30s for the past few
mornings, and so may see forecast low temperatures decrease a few
degrees in subsequent forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry weather.

2. Temperatures trend a few degrees warmer.

An upper low will drop into the northeastern US over the weekend,
while the more broad 500mb trough deepens, pushing a cold front
through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast, bringing some
precipitation to those regions. Long range models are showing some
disagreement in how far south the precipitation will spread, some
bringing light rain showers into the northern parts of the forecast
area, but with high pressure at the surface and a dry airmass over
the region, confidence is higher that the forecast will remain dry
for most. Beyond the weekend, high pressure follows the
aforementioned system, and reinforces the wedge pattern into the
beginning of next week.

Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer Monday, with highs in
the low to mid 80s in the Piedmont, and mid to upper 70s in the
west. Overnight low will start to moderate as the high pressure
weakens some, back into the mid to upper 50s areawide, touching the
60s in parts of the Piedmont and Southside VA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...

Increasing VFR cigs in the piedmont early in the period with low
clouds close by with potential MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys per
models at DAN/LYH after 09z, lasting til 12-13z. Confidence is
moderate on this happening so have tempo groups in place.

Further west, VFR, aside from any fog at LWB, and potentially
BCB. Drying conditions will continue to limit fog formation
though.

VFR conditions will occur after 14z for all sites through the
end of the taf period 06z/12.

A remark of AMD NOT SKED has been added to the KLWB TAF.
Observations are not being reported between roughly 2300Z and
1230Z as the tower is not staffed during this time to take
manual surface observations. Parts are on order for the
automated system.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions expected through early next week, outside any
patchy late night/early morning mountain valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...WP